Interactive Investor

The Trump 30 Index: will this index be great again?

Despite losing the US election, could this basket of stocks flourish? Our chartist find out.

11th November 2020 09:54

Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets

Despite losing the US election, could this basket of stocks flourish? Our chartist find out.

The Trump 30 Index 

Almost as a fun thing, we've been keeping a weather eye on the fabled Trump 30 Index

This invention took a basket of large US listed shares expected to flourish if Trump retained the presidency. 

The theory was that those favouring a Trump win could effectively trade 30 US equities by taking a short or long position.

Something quite odd has occurred this week.

The basket of Trump 30 equities started to flourish, despite the US media calling the election for Biden. (Surely we are not the only folk aghast at the winner of a US election traditionally being called by the Press Association, rather than a proper electoral body.) 

The sudden spring-like behaviour of the Trump 30 certainly gives pause for thought, making us wonder if recounts and legal challenges shall turn last week’s apparent result on its head.

We considered the equally strange Biden 30 Index, discovering Biden’s basket of 30 shares appears to have topped, looking capable of some immediate reversals. America is strange...

At present, the Trump 30 is trading around 936, only needing above 947 to suggest coming growth to 970 and a new high since the concept started last July.

And should 970 be exceeded, our secondary calculates up at 1,000 points, presumably meaning Trump is expected to be the bloke on the balcony come inauguration next January. 

For those already involved in this form of trading, it already looks to be the case 1,000 points is the market intention, needing below 853 points to cancel the concept.

Common sense would suggest the Trump 30 is only blooming due to the Covid-19 vaccine story. But unfortunately the chart shows the index started to break clear of the downtrend on Friday - this being before the Covid-19/Pfizer headlines appeared. 

Perhaps we're being whimsical, unable to understand the American way of doing things. Neither candidate inspired anything greater than an urgent need to change the channel on TV.

Source: Trends and Targets      Past performance is not a guide to future performance

Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.

Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea. 

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