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380p end of year target

lse:rbs

#1

I am now setting this as my target by end of December 2018.

Reason why?

  • Dividend potential within the next 6 to 12 months (per Ross McEwan On LBC radio )
  • Q3 and Q4 profit so full year profit should be a cert
  • CET1 is currently 15.1% (above 14% target) and should increase over the quarters (Q3 and Q4 in particular)
  • Surplus capital for payment of a modest dividend l estimate 5p should be a comfortable total for the year subject to stress test results

#2

Resistance at the moment


#3

Saudi Bank / hsbc merger will have a positive effect on rbs share price even though its a stock transfer. Contingent liability will reduce by £4/5 billion. Almost time to put the foot back into the water.


#4

Aren’t you the same guy who confidently predicted the shares would soon be above £5?

So it’s £3.80 now is it?

Melt.


#5

Well I’m setting my target at 270-290 for year end, towards the bottom end most likely.

Reason why?

Because regardless of how anyone perceives the underlying fundamentals, the City knows HMG are prepared to unload their stake, indeed want to offload it, and aren’t too bothered about squeezing every last penny out of it. At the moment this kind of level seems acceptable so, unless there’s a significant change of heart (or HMG start playing a better game of poker?), given you know shares will be in the pipeline, why would you pay up?

Even the trackers and EFTs don’t really need to grab any yet because they know it won’t be going anywhere any time soon so can wait.

The only plus point is pretty long-term. HMG’s stake has and would always be a bit of an overhang here. At some point they were always going to have to unwind it and, until it is eliminated, you’d never have a proper bank share. The ideal solution of a £5 plus SP with an open offer to all members of the public never was very likely.

Regards,
ITDYA wondering how many of the institutions who bought this tranche of shares have given political contributions to the Conservative party and/or have supported them in other ways?


#6

A very sensible post until the last sentence in which you appear to suggest institutions have been ‘gifted’ shares for political support. Complete nonsense. First do you really think some salesman at JP Morgan (or Morgan Stanley or anywhere else) putting together the book build rings up and asks if the fund manager or his employer supports a particular party? Or gives a tss either way? Fantasy.

Second, when HMG last sold shares in RBS there were posters here yelling that Osborne was giving away shares to his chums in the City, what a rip off, Tory donars making out blah blah blah blah. Garbage then, garbage today. Those ‘chums’ paid 380p a share - so much for being handed free money.


#7

If Lloyds Bank is anything to go by since its HMG sale its SP has underperformed so why should RBS be any different?

Cheers, RAC


#8

I assume you’re the same RAConnell who posted this a long while ago:

“As for RBS (even though I’m adequately invested at 541p) I still expect that a year from now optimism on RBS will be rewarded … this increasingly looks like a buying opportunity … almost like taking candy from a baby. Just glad I’m cash-rich at present. Cheers RAC”

After which RBS went bust.

To which needs to be added there was subsequently a 1 for 10 consolidation so “adequately invested” at £54.41 compared to £2.66 today. Being 'adequately invested" at more than 20x today’s price does not put you in a great position to comment on ANYTHING to do with this share. Or any share for that matter.

Clown


#9

I hear you point RAC about LLOY performance now HMG are out - true, it’s no guarantee that things will move forward quickly but I do feel the HMG stake is always going to be a bit of a millstone. The City knows they are always going to want to unload it so the shares will always turn up at some point so why chase them? The thing with only 30% of the shares previously available meant that it didn’t take much news, good(?) or bad, move the SP a fair bit. With more and more out there I’d expect volatility to reduce but yeah, no guarantee it will be an upward move.

My point really was that, as long as there’s still a significant HMG stake, trying to value RBS on fundamentals (even if underlying numbers are guesswork which has been very much the case with RBS for quite a few years now) is of limited benefit as any significant move upwards is liable to be crushed by another tranche of HMG being offloaded.

With no dividend actually in place (albeit many suggesting one might be in the pipeline in the nearish future) there’s precious little reason to buy at this moment; maybe later but not today.

Regards,
ITDYA


#10

The sad thing is the Government seem to be will to sell at a big loss, and every body knows this. RBS share jump from £2 to almost £3 last year and as most seem to think £3.80 might be on the cards with RBS now in profit and some more good results. But the Government has shot it self and the shareholder in the foot, with it announcement a few months ago it was thinking of sell some of it share. Since then it gone from £2.90 to £2.70. Why could they not wait another 12 to 18 month see what the return to dividend payment did to the share price and then sell. IT might have been closer to it break even price. But it seem the Government are quite happy to take another big loss, even though if held out a bit longer it could make a lot of money.
WAS going to add more share a few months ago, but on news the Government was thing of selling change my mind.


#11

Kitty cats.

Once a dividend is announced do we all think this will stay under 300p?

I’m personally betting no.


#12

Isn’t a return to the dividend already in the price?


#13

Doubt it plus there’s potential of a buy back and also further quarters of profit, which will give an idea of future dividends. Dividend estimate for next year is double too. Plenty of upside scope if you’re patient.


#14

So you think you can see upside because a dividend will be paid before too long but the rest of the market has not spotted this and priced it in? I admire your arrogance but think you’re wrong.


#15

Have you read my OP?

CET1 will rise more money can be returned to shareholders.


#16

RBS boss Ross McEwan is ‘confident’ the bank will pass stress tests and could have news on a dividend by August


#17

Consensus dividend is 7.7p rising to 14.61 for FY2019.

https://uk.webfg.com/equity/Royal_Bank_of_Scotland_Group


#18

Tasty gain today


#19

tasty gain? down 3.5%

parallel universe?


#20

Are you trying to bust my balls?

Let’s see where we are end of year!