Is there a correlation between a negative December/January & the follow on? How many times since 1972, where there has been negative sentiment when the “Santa Rally” has gone on to produce a negative year? e.g. there is 2/1 chance that after a negative finish to the middle of January that the markets will be substanially down come the end of the following December.
This is where a good experienced chartist would come into play. Surely the Xmas rally must be a strong variable that comes into a mathematical probabilty & chance theory. Even if you´re just writing out of a hunch it would be interesting to see peoples views.