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An experienced stock market statistician, "Santa rally"

lse:bp

#1

Is there a correlation between a negative December/January & the follow on? How many times since 1972, where there has been negative sentiment when the “Santa Rally” has gone on to produce a negative year? e.g. there is 2/1 chance that after a negative finish to the middle of January that the markets will be substanially down come the end of the following December.

This is where a good experienced chartist would come into play. Surely the Xmas rally must be a strong variable that comes into a mathematical probabilty & chance theory. Even if you´re just writing out of a hunch it would be interesting to see peoples views.


#2

I wondered if you worked for a bookies ?
Paddy Power an investment @ this price ?


#3

Bookmakers use similar probabilty models although odds may well be exaggerated to entice people to place bets. Asian betting may offer far less odds than in the UK. This in part is how stock prices are made, the market makers will want an idea of the direction of SP.

Do you have access to a UK bookmakers shop? Place minimum bets (20p) on 5 football games, place the bets on clear favourites. Continue this over say 5 weeks of games, see if it is a winning strategy! Where the top teams play. Liverpool v´s Man City, Man United Arsenal etc the draw is a high probable outcome. These are games where it is benifical that niether team win. When Man City went to Liverpool, unusually Man City, went very defensive, they played for the draw! OK a bit lucky with the penalty.


#4

My Mother & I are BOTH shareholders - They sent her divi cheque to the wrong address . They admitted their mistake. Despite discussing with Jo Hayward , the Executive Assistant to CEO - She STILL has not got her money. at 102 shell be dead by the time they pay out. are they THAT bankrupt ? are they waiting for her to be dead first ? todays 3p looks like a dead cat bounce.


#5

Don´t forget they will charge you 15% commissions to get the dividend re-paid. One dividend I had to pay 100 GBP to the Shell registrars in Lancing, in commissions.


#6

Are people still using cheques?