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lse:barc

#1

Back in with some Tullow Oil, after I missed Vodafone in the 120s. Thinking of buying some Barc in the low 140s, with a 7% return target. But put off a touch as the falls seem relentless. What’s you thoughts JD?


#2

Hi Mcn,

Thanks for the consideration. My recent history here is telling. Took a huge hit on all BARC leveraged long positions weeks ago, as posted on my BARC buys thread. Average was just over 200. Why so? I decided there was very little prospect of seeing a profit on those anytime soon. Not this year at least, unless Brexit cancelled.

However, I still hold shares at 198+ & 157+. Will sell one closer to 170. The other realistically a very long-term hold. IMO, CEO is mediocre, their IB division has under-preformed &, out of all UK banks, BARC reportedly most exposed to Brexit.

On a positive note: SP is pricing in a No Deal exit. It closed 127.20, a multi-year low, on 27th June, 2016, when the very worst shock waves of Brexit were still shaking markets. We can’t discount a return closer to those levels if a hard Brexit seen. Especially if No Deal doesn’t also allow a staggered exit over a couple of years whilst keeping current trading arrangements.

Bottom-line: IMO, BARC at near current levels is a buy for a longer-term hold. So beyond a few months. No doubt it’ll be much higher again once Brexit uncertainties resolved. But if looking for a good profit in weeks to a few months? Well, IMO, there are better stocks out there.

A chart can say more than any comments of mine. - Best of luck!


#3

Wow, I really appreciate your incredibly detailed response. Makes me think I may hold off to the (perhaps) inevitable 130s, or go in now for 33% and hang fire forbanother 2 tranches.

Your insight is a pleasure as always,

MCN


#4

Mcn,

Thanks again & you’re welcome. Hopefully a few others can chip in here before your final decision.

As you’ll no doubt appreciate, no individual market participant can possibly be 100% certain that their view will be proven the correct one over time. Most stocks have both a bull & bear case, be it over different timeframes. Though it won’t surprise me in the slightest if BARC revisits the 130s over coming months, even that isn’t set in stone.

In my humble opinion, despite added commission, a staggered entry here as you’re considering may be a good option in the current uncertain climate. That uncertainty may predominate for some time yet.

This sector remains particularly vulnerable to a No Deal. So the more bluster we hear about No Deal being an acceptable outcome from pro-Brexit politicians playing to their core support, the lower these banking SPs tend to go. That’s despite any rallies. - Regards.


#5

Good Morning

My thoughts are generally in line with those of JD post.

I consider that as at Friday close, BARC sp was touching oversold level, albeit it was showing weakness and might drop a touch more.
If I were buying shares, I would certainly use the 3 tranche method, perhaps starting at around 142 ( if possible ) If cannot would have to revise.
I believe if doing so and having no need to be a forced seller, the risk/reward ratio is slanted to the upside.

As already said though a No Deal Brexit could throw a spanner in the works.

I have described the UK banking sector as a poor one to be in, I stand on that, albeit was thinking more of LLOY. I think BARC has slightly better potential.

I trade both, prefer BARC long side on dips, to short ( The current BARC level is too low to make it a viable short, it looks good for long/buy.

ATB & GL

soi


#6

Thanks soi,

Going to bank some profit from the 17% Tullow Oil jump this morning and buy tranche 1 of Barc.

Good luck both with your trading,

MCN


#7

Unfortunately both BARC and LLOY turned negative soon after positive openings. Timing is tricky.

Frog


#8

Day low just registered at 139.96. SP value eroding away quicker than I imagined. At this rate, very hard to even call a bottom to this mess.

Though I now only hold real shares in BARC, having ditched my leveraged mess at significant loss soon after Theresa May announced her resignation on the correct assumption that a hardline Brexiteer was likely to replace her, no escaping the disappointment here. Unless a hard Brexit is somehow avoided, the road to recovery likely to be a very long one indeed! Ditto for other banks & UK-centric stocks. - GLA.


#9

Your sounding a little bit down mate

Honestly its just one big game

Hang in there mate

Our day will return here sometimes in life you just got to accept a little pain to see a little gain in life