On 141.09 I suspect its going to move fairly soon like a dam giving away. Volume is building.
Appears to have a seller somewhere. I can always unwind the position made as a day trade and probably will do so at this rate. The stock should have seen a 5p or so boost to 146p but only 1/10 of it materialised. Perhaps whatever is keeping it back may allow a few crumbs this afternoon.
Only error of the day. What an August day for gold and gold miners.
Interesting day @tornadotony
I was at the cinema so missed the afternoon excitement. It illustrates my point about the volatility of gold.
I’ve only missed out now on £3k of possible profit. Could I really be calling this one right? Will I be able to buy back in lower than 133p, my last sale price
I sold today’s buy to take a loss on the chin and it had a lot to do with not being caught on a position in my accounts on Centamin. A lesson in over trading after a glorious trade in the morning but it happens with me occasionally . The fundamentals as to why gold rose have not changed one iota. What has changed is the tight correlation gold miners had with gold and so the position is blind sided as to what happens next in the short term. I am 70% off in cash and only 30% on and 20% of that is intended as long term hold for divis etcetera. At present there is a lot of uncertainty in general as to how things go.
Sometimes you need to be brave and cut your exposure rather than follow a SP down. I learnt that the hard way.
I’m not good enough to do the short term trades that you do Tony.
There is still time to buy in for the dividend but that wouldn’t be a reason for me to buy back in. It just irons out any possible short term drop.
I’ve noticed in the past that though we can follow the gold price it’s not always so. We could be entering a short term disconnect.
Been reading a few news items these last few days. Hints of a recession in the UK, in a few European countries and indications of the USA.
I’d appreciate your thoughts on what this might mean for PoG and Centamin?
It depends on the central banks and what they do in September and whether Trump decides he can agree on something with China in future trade talks. It also depends if Trump decides to prolong his trade fight using any rate cuts as fuel to continue doing so. If Trump does behave in that way Gold and the bond rates stay on their current pathways.
Gold, bond rates would reverse their current trends if trade issues get resolved as industrial investment takes off. I suspect it has to arise by the next big farming planting season in USA by late February if not Trump loses his base and the election in November 2020. A recession would materialise globally by the spring of 2020 and I doubt if the central bankers could do much with the end of globalisation at that point.
What to do now is quite difficult as a severe market crash usually results in the insurance " gold" getting sold event but gold then rebounds much higher later on.
I have cashed in 15k net profits but I have 9.5k in profits on the current positions. If I post that I have sold off completely you will know I expect the insurance event. I may have given away some gains by that time. The alternative is that my position holds through September and October and await gold miner quarterly results. My logic for now considering Fresnillo and holding there as the best play is due to the fact that it has been hammered so hard already and the future is like Centamin in the 80-90p range. The company also has around 5% growth from August 2020. Downside on Fresnillo could be 15%, but not 35%-40% with those other stocks having done well. The upside on Fresnillo is currently 18-20% without gold being higher than say 1450.
Hope the above helps. It is useful to look at other gold miners than just Centamin which has only one major operational mine. We have not heard if they have access to the underground stoping areas they could not use in June.
Thanks Tony, it’s good to get someone else’s take on things.
I don’t see anything wrong in what you say, it just reinforces my current caution. Maybe I might lose out on some potential short term profits but there is a lot of uncertainties. If the market were to crash it tends to drag everything down. Seems a long time since we had a good old market panic.
Perhaps I should put my feet up for 6 months and chill.
I closed out all polymetal for the time being. Also took another 10k CEY off so profits at risk just over 4k. I have added on Fresnillo on the buy lowish and sell higher policy and effectively averaged down 12p. One has to look at the upside and say is it worth grabbing a few quid in front of a possible steam roller. The next frontier to research is oil companies as I watch them get beat up very badly and then decide who to pick and likely to do well on the up-turn.