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Brexit Wars 3

lse:hsba
lse:lloy
lse:barc

#17605

That’s the problem :see_no_evil::hear_no_evil:


#17606

Fynne,

Surely we all aspire to be a successful trading nation, don’t we?

Huw,

On whether Germany would have done as well if it still used the DM, as I asked, is of course impossibe to answer. However, I think we can make a reasonable assumption that it would still be a leading world economy and that on the basis of its high level of productivity and the quality of its goods, together with the additional advantage of being able to control the value of the DM, that it would still have a trading surplus.

Whilst looking for an economist’s point of view I found this article in The Guardian:

It makes some of the same points as I have but plenty more besides including some suggested strategies for dealing with the surplus.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#17607

Huw:
A) the UK isn’t in the Eurozone
B) you still haven’t explained how the supposed “enormous globally destabilizing trade surplus within the EU” will affect the UK if we are within the EU but how we are blissfully unaffected if we are out.

This is especially so when the UK Government itself and all independent forecasts say the UK is better off inside the EU under any Brexit scenario and by any measure.
Or are all these “so-called experts” lying… and instead we need to listen to Guru Huw?


#17608

Gina Miller - a true democrat

Gina Miller has written to Johnson to say that she will take legal action if he tries to prorogue parliament.

Good for her! I did not send my Mp to parliament for them to be locked out and prevented from doing their job.

Frog ina tree


#17609

Rumours that Oakenshott Lover of Richard Tice of Brexit party leaked the ambassadors emails.
Tice lobbied for the job
She is paid by Ashcroft Brexit backer and now full time resident in Belize Tax Haven.
If true no surprise most know they are crooks but smells to high heaven


#17610

Good for her … keeping all those expensive barristers in a job …
more money than sense (imo)


#17611

based permanently? I don’t think so


#17612

You don’t “think” ? Good to see you’ve done some research on it … wasn’t I being criticized for not reading the articles posted on here and making ignorant comments


2002 …

Please note the word “permanently” in the title
Haven’t read it myself :nerd_face:


#17613

Second link won’t open but try googling “minesweepers in the gulf” and I’m sure you’ll find it …
… Even managed to fix the link for you …


#17614

Taken from @HuwJarse’s site used to back up this and other assertions, such as

Here’s a chart showing no particular magic rise in exports on the introduction of the EURO asserted by @HuwJarse and other Trump-groupies.

Approx 50% of German exports are within the EU but at no point is it ‘predominantly reliant on exports for its GDP’. Approx 20% of Germany’s GDP is from exports outside the EU. USA is the biggest of many large customers. Approx 12% of USA GDP is reliant on exports.

What @HuwJarse, and apparently Trump, fail to take into account is that Germany is part of a trade bloc and there is a very definite rise in German exports as a percentage of GDP in 1993, when the barriers were lifted within the EU.

@HuwJarse just doesn’t get it, and Trump doesn’t want to admit it as he constructs additional protectionist barriers between USA and her trading partners.


#17615

They are quite simply wrong in their language is they say they are ‘permanently based’ out there. Not a big deal, @fynne, but best to be right about these matters if you’re ‘publishing’ them.

As for the second warship being sent ‘before’ Trump’s appeal it may be the case, unfortunately it looks to the rest of the world like he spat in our faces then gave a command and we responded like whipped puppies.

The amount of damage done to our international prestige by our ‘ally’ Trump in the last few days is literally incalculable. Time will tell, but I expect it will be just another nail in the self-inflicted Brexit coffin and the cowardly withdrawal from world influence and responsibility it represents.


#17616

iphones are manufactured in Taiwan and always have been.

Apple developed the technology in California with its staff from many countries. They were first onto the bus with this smartphone which has always been vastly overpriced. A Motorola from Tescos at 65 quid would suit most people just as well as a 1000 pound iphone. Downhill for Apple unless they can pull a new rabbit out of the hat.

The US is top dog in many fields : global finance (basically the New York hub), Hollywood and Disney, Facebook, Google, etc.

But I was talking about production of goods: cars, ships, steel, household appliances, machinery and decent food and so on. The US has fallen behind in an historic trend compared to the Far East and Europe in the above. That is why they have become so protectionist when once they pretended to be in favour of free trade.

However, the USA is pre-eminent in the manufacture of arms, both in terms of making guns for citizens to shoot each other and for sale to foreign countries. The latter is a way to control errant states and force them to due the bidding of Washington. Arms manufacturing keeps a lot of people in jobs, as do the armed forces, but economically they are not a good deal. The crippling cost of maintaining such a huge military/industrial complex has been a major component in the accrual of the National Debt of the USA which is now $22 Trillion.

IMHO,

SBK


#17617

You should thank Gina, she won her last battle. If she hadn’t Mrs May would have just gone ahead and imposed her deal on Parliament.

IMHO,

SBK


#17618

Greece could still leave the Euro. They don’t do so, because they would lose a means of blackmailing other Euro countries: “give us credit for many decades at wonderful conditions or we go bust and damage the Euro.”

It’s a matter of balancing the pros and cons. Greece has decided that it does better with than without the Euro. I don’t know if that is the best long term decision. Probably leaving the Euro would cause severe mid term damage and shrink the greek GDP dramatically and cut the country from imports such as cars and medications. It would be much harder than the measures by the hated troika, but with the chance to recover and live without permanent foreign credit. It is up to Greece to decide.

…and it would make the Euro more valuable.


#17619

Jarse,

No it is you who has not learned from my teaching:

  1. The Leave majority of 2016 is now dead.

  2. They have been supplanted by new electors who are overwhelmingly Remainers.

  3. Normal peeps are fed up, know that they were lied to and can see that its all been a waste of time.

My calculations show a 56/44 advantage to Remain currently.

This is a conservative estimate. I am now thinking that the crude measure of older voters’ demise is insufficient. There will also be, at a 2 to 1 ratio to Remainers in the 65+ group who have been committed to care homes, hospitals or in some other way incapacitated. Though they will have been kept on the electoral roll, they will be absent from the battlefield come the next Referendum.

Don’t like that? Its just the plain truth.

IMHO,

SBK


#17620

It gets devalued by inflation. Greece has several loans.

73bln from the 1st package between 10 and 30 years at 50 points above e-months EURIBOR. The latter is currently at -0,363%.

142,7bln from the 2nd package for 32.5 years between 2.85% and 3.78%

55.2bln from the 3rd package for 32.5 years at 0.86%

The current debt is not the total of the above, because subsequent loans partly refinanced earlier loans the IMF got some of its money back.

What will happen is that the loans will be infinitely extended until inflation has eaten them away. The irony is that some countries like Slovakia have higher cost of refinancing the money they gave to Greece. I don*t know if that is being discussed there.

Not to forget the 53.5 % cut worth 105bln. That alone was a wonderful present of 9500 Euro per person.


#17621

What else would it be? If not, all other Euro countries would have the same surplus. For a british it’s perhaps a bit difficult to comprehend how many more manufacturing and highly specialized world market leaders exist in Germany.


#17622

The Netherlands are a trading nation. Germany is a manufacturing nation. I noticed that many german terms that describe manufacturing or hand craft translate to something with “trade” in english. I think that linguistic peculiarity is worth noting.


#17623

I have’t read the articles either. What I did research was the Royal Navy’s own list of craft and their permanent bases. As I reported, a couple of ‘patrol ships’ (little more than large, fast speedboats) in Gibraltar and The Falklands, everything else in Britain.

I must say,

… hardly sounds like they were already based there, does it?

I haven’t read the articles either, after your recent admission to arguing points without actually deciding what you are arguing about, just using your own prejudiced knowledge. I also note the article quoted is 17 years old and was in the build up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Instead I look at my own sources of research. The ‘minesweeper’ presence has largely been maintained in the gulf, but they are not the same boats, they are rotated out after a maximum of 3 years. This may be why they are not classed as being ‘permanently based there’, not least because there aren’t the facilities to refit them as there are in their permanent home ports.


#17624

Eadwig,

You make me laugh. You’ll construct the most convoluted, muddled and just plain factually wrong arguments to defend Germany’s indefensible and toxic trade surplus.

The fact remains that the US will enter the currency war soon enough and there will be consequences for the EU.