Brexit Wars 3



Taken from @HuwJarse’s site used to back up this and other assertions, such as

Here’s a chart showing no particular magic rise in exports on the introduction of the EURO asserted by @HuwJarse and other Trump-groupies.

Approx 50% of German exports are within the EU but at no point is it ‘predominantly reliant on exports for its GDP’. Approx 20% of Germany’s GDP is from exports outside the EU. USA is the biggest of many large customers. Approx 12% of USA GDP is reliant on exports.

What @HuwJarse, and apparently Trump, fail to take into account is that Germany is part of a trade bloc and there is a very definite rise in German exports as a percentage of GDP in 1993, when the barriers were lifted within the EU.

@HuwJarse just doesn’t get it, and Trump doesn’t want to admit it as he constructs additional protectionist barriers between USA and her trading partners.


They are quite simply wrong in their language is they say they are ‘permanently based’ out there. Not a big deal, @fynne, but best to be right about these matters if you’re ‘publishing’ them.

As for the second warship being sent ‘before’ Trump’s appeal it may be the case, unfortunately it looks to the rest of the world like he spat in our faces then gave a command and we responded like whipped puppies.

The amount of damage done to our international prestige by our ‘ally’ Trump in the last few days is literally incalculable. Time will tell, but I expect it will be just another nail in the self-inflicted Brexit coffin and the cowardly withdrawal from world influence and responsibility it represents.


iphones are manufactured in Taiwan and always have been.

Apple developed the technology in California with its staff from many countries. They were first onto the bus with this smartphone which has always been vastly overpriced. A Motorola from Tescos at 65 quid would suit most people just as well as a 1000 pound iphone. Downhill for Apple unless they can pull a new rabbit out of the hat.

The US is top dog in many fields : global finance (basically the New York hub), Hollywood and Disney, Facebook, Google, etc.

But I was talking about production of goods: cars, ships, steel, household appliances, machinery and decent food and so on. The US has fallen behind in an historic trend compared to the Far East and Europe in the above. That is why they have become so protectionist when once they pretended to be in favour of free trade.

However, the USA is pre-eminent in the manufacture of arms, both in terms of making guns for citizens to shoot each other and for sale to foreign countries. The latter is a way to control errant states and force them to due the bidding of Washington. Arms manufacturing keeps a lot of people in jobs, as do the armed forces, but economically they are not a good deal. The crippling cost of maintaining such a huge military/industrial complex has been a major component in the accrual of the National Debt of the USA which is now $22 Trillion.




You should thank Gina, she won her last battle. If she hadn’t Mrs May would have just gone ahead and imposed her deal on Parliament.




Greece could still leave the Euro. They don’t do so, because they would lose a means of blackmailing other Euro countries: “give us credit for many decades at wonderful conditions or we go bust and damage the Euro.”

It’s a matter of balancing the pros and cons. Greece has decided that it does better with than without the Euro. I don’t know if that is the best long term decision. Probably leaving the Euro would cause severe mid term damage and shrink the greek GDP dramatically and cut the country from imports such as cars and medications. It would be much harder than the measures by the hated troika, but with the chance to recover and live without permanent foreign credit. It is up to Greece to decide.

…and it would make the Euro more valuable.



No it is you who has not learned from my teaching:

  1. The Leave majority of 2016 is now dead.

  2. They have been supplanted by new electors who are overwhelmingly Remainers.

  3. Normal peeps are fed up, know that they were lied to and can see that its all been a waste of time.

My calculations show a 56/44 advantage to Remain currently.

This is a conservative estimate. I am now thinking that the crude measure of older voters’ demise is insufficient. There will also be, at a 2 to 1 ratio to Remainers in the 65+ group who have been committed to care homes, hospitals or in some other way incapacitated. Though they will have been kept on the electoral roll, they will be absent from the battlefield come the next Referendum.

Don’t like that? Its just the plain truth.




It gets devalued by inflation. Greece has several loans.

73bln from the 1st package between 10 and 30 years at 50 points above e-months EURIBOR. The latter is currently at -0,363%.

142,7bln from the 2nd package for 32.5 years between 2.85% and 3.78%

55.2bln from the 3rd package for 32.5 years at 0.86%

The current debt is not the total of the above, because subsequent loans partly refinanced earlier loans the IMF got some of its money back.

What will happen is that the loans will be infinitely extended until inflation has eaten them away. The irony is that some countries like Slovakia have higher cost of refinancing the money they gave to Greece. I don*t know if that is being discussed there.

Not to forget the 53.5 % cut worth 105bln. That alone was a wonderful present of 9500 Euro per person.


What else would it be? If not, all other Euro countries would have the same surplus. For a british it’s perhaps a bit difficult to comprehend how many more manufacturing and highly specialized world market leaders exist in Germany.


The Netherlands are a trading nation. Germany is a manufacturing nation. I noticed that many german terms that describe manufacturing or hand craft translate to something with “trade” in english. I think that linguistic peculiarity is worth noting.


I have’t read the articles either. What I did research was the Royal Navy’s own list of craft and their permanent bases. As I reported, a couple of ‘patrol ships’ (little more than large, fast speedboats) in Gibraltar and The Falklands, everything else in Britain.

I must say,

… hardly sounds like they were already based there, does it?

I haven’t read the articles either, after your recent admission to arguing points without actually deciding what you are arguing about, just using your own prejudiced knowledge. I also note the article quoted is 17 years old and was in the build up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Instead I look at my own sources of research. The ‘minesweeper’ presence has largely been maintained in the gulf, but they are not the same boats, they are rotated out after a maximum of 3 years. This may be why they are not classed as being ‘permanently based there’, not least because there aren’t the facilities to refit them as there are in their permanent home ports.



You make me laugh. You’ll construct the most convoluted, muddled and just plain factually wrong arguments to defend Germany’s indefensible and toxic trade surplus.

The fact remains that the US will enter the currency war soon enough and there will be consequences for the EU.


How did I construct these facts from the link YOU gave? It was YOU who actually over-estimated American reliance on exports for GDP, which I corrected (supporting your argument), unfortunately your use of the word predominantly when it came to Germay’s / EU’s reliance in exports for GDP figures was just laughably inaccurate - as I proved with information from your own link.

Are you saying they didn’t enter it already when launching QE before anyone else and cutting rates to emergency levels?

Are you supporting the USA levelling punitive tariffs at British businesses? They will do, and intend to, and without the EU the UK will be crushed.


What utter garbage. Its beyond belief that anyone who believes in free enterprise and free trade could complain at the success of Germany or any other state. If the UK was in a similar position to Germany neither I nor you would be calling it a “toxic” situation.

Germany has achieved its position through long term planning, wise investment, good education and the hard work of its people. The deficits of the UK and USA are result of their deficits in exactly those respects.




And its relations between management and workers and the esteem with which the culture holds people such as engineers - a title that even entitles them to an honorific in that culture.

To try and weasel out of recognising these things and to try and blame the Euro is just baffling.

I suppose Japan’s similar success along with Germany in supplying many of the world’s best cars and machine tools is also down to the fact they adopted the Euro, is it?

When do you think the USA will target Japan, @HuwJarse? I mean, it has to come, I think it may well be next before the EU because they are an easier, smaller target to bully.

Not as small and easy as the UK will be post Brexit, of course. Remember, the rallying-cry of the Trump-groupies is ‘America First’. Period. Nothing about ‘and Britain too because we’re dying to do them a favour’.

No, it will be more guff about targeting our communist-like protection of our NHS service and whatever other excuses they can come up with to grind us under the Trump jackboot.


imagine all those people buying Mercs BMW AUDI etc rather than Skoda and Fiat because they are so cheap.


Last one from me tonight but also comes from buns


What I find with most of you on this board is that in your desire to keep changing the subject you’ve either forgotten, or wilfully ignored, what was said at the start of the thread. As I pointed out previously, Japan has a tiny trade surplus with the US. Trump is most interested in the main offender, the EU and Germany.

Who do you think is the biggest foreign investor in the US? It is the UK. Ditto the US for investment in the UK. The relationship between us is strong not because of the past but because of the our shared business interests. Of course, small minded self-loathers like you can only see the future in terms of we are small, will be bullied, need mummy EU’s apron strings to keep us safe etc. Nothing new there then.


The USA is already at war with the EU over Iran. European businesses have retreated from Iran under the threat of sanctions. That’s bad for us, but has further tragic consequences. If any change in Iran can happen, it will be driven by the middle class. The sanctions are eradicating the middle class and strenghening the hard liners. At the same time the USA are flattering the barbarians in Saudi Arabia. It’s wrong, tragic and may cause huge danger in near east.

And anyone who is supporting Trump is making himself guilty. Nobody shall say they didn’t know.


Skoda is Volkswagen and people in Wolfsburg hate them, because they often beat their quality at a better price.


Brexiteer alternative facts?

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, February 2019

Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.1), European Union ($12.4), Mexico ($7.7), Japan ($6.7), Germany ($5.5), Italy ($2.8), South Korea ($2.4), India ($2.2), France ($2.2), Taiwan ($1.7), and Saudi Arabia ($0.3).

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, March 2019

Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($28.3), European Union ($15.8), Mexico ($8.6), Japan ($6.1), Germany ($5.7), Italy ($2.8), Canada ($2.1), Taiwan ($2.0), South Korea ($1.8), India ($1.8), France ($1.7), and United Kingdom ($0.2).

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, April 2019

Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($29.4), European Union ($15.1), Mexico ($7.9), Japan ($6.5), Germany ($5.4), Italy ($3.1), Taiwan ($2.0), France ($2.0), Canada ($1.8), South Korea ($1.5), India ($1.3), United Kingdom ($0.4), Saudi Arabia ($0.2), and OPEC (less than $0.1).

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, May 2019

Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.1), European Union ($16.9), Mexico ($9.1), Japan ($6.0), Germany ($5.8), Canada ($3.6), Italy ($2.6), France ($2.1), India ($1.9), Taiwan ($1.5), South Korea ($1.4), and OPEC ($0.1).

oops, the deficit with Japan was even higher.

ok, now I’m getting curious. How did 2018 look?

Trade in Goods with Japan

deficit with Japan -67,195.9

Trade in Goods with Germany

deficit with Germany -68,096.0

The trade surplus of both countries with the USA is pretty much the same. That shows that your thesis is completely wrong. Do ever check your facts?

Interesting though that says that the deficit including services is even bigger. That’s different from what I read elsewhere.