Brexit Wars 3



It gets devalued by inflation. Greece has several loans.

73bln from the 1st package between 10 and 30 years at 50 points above e-months EURIBOR. The latter is currently at -0,363%.

142,7bln from the 2nd package for 32.5 years between 2.85% and 3.78%

55.2bln from the 3rd package for 32.5 years at 0.86%

The current debt is not the total of the above, because subsequent loans partly refinanced earlier loans the IMF got some of its money back.

What will happen is that the loans will be infinitely extended until inflation has eaten them away. The irony is that some countries like Slovakia have higher cost of refinancing the money they gave to Greece. I don*t know if that is being discussed there.

Not to forget the 53.5 % cut worth 105bln. That alone was a wonderful present of 9500 Euro per person.


What else would it be? If not, all other Euro countries would have the same surplus. For a british it’s perhaps a bit difficult to comprehend how many more manufacturing and highly specialized world market leaders exist in Germany.


The Netherlands are a trading nation. Germany is a manufacturing nation. I noticed that many german terms that describe manufacturing or hand craft translate to something with “trade” in english. I think that linguistic peculiarity is worth noting.


I have’t read the articles either. What I did research was the Royal Navy’s own list of craft and their permanent bases. As I reported, a couple of ‘patrol ships’ (little more than large, fast speedboats) in Gibraltar and The Falklands, everything else in Britain.

I must say,

… hardly sounds like they were already based there, does it?

I haven’t read the articles either, after your recent admission to arguing points without actually deciding what you are arguing about, just using your own prejudiced knowledge. I also note the article quoted is 17 years old and was in the build up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Instead I look at my own sources of research. The ‘minesweeper’ presence has largely been maintained in the gulf, but they are not the same boats, they are rotated out after a maximum of 3 years. This may be why they are not classed as being ‘permanently based there’, not least because there aren’t the facilities to refit them as there are in their permanent home ports.



You make me laugh. You’ll construct the most convoluted, muddled and just plain factually wrong arguments to defend Germany’s indefensible and toxic trade surplus.

The fact remains that the US will enter the currency war soon enough and there will be consequences for the EU.


How did I construct these facts from the link YOU gave? It was YOU who actually over-estimated American reliance on exports for GDP, which I corrected (supporting your argument), unfortunately your use of the word predominantly when it came to Germay’s / EU’s reliance in exports for GDP figures was just laughably inaccurate - as I proved with information from your own link.

Are you saying they didn’t enter it already when launching QE before anyone else and cutting rates to emergency levels?

Are you supporting the USA levelling punitive tariffs at British businesses? They will do, and intend to, and without the EU the UK will be crushed.


What utter garbage. Its beyond belief that anyone who believes in free enterprise and free trade could complain at the success of Germany or any other state. If the UK was in a similar position to Germany neither I nor you would be calling it a “toxic” situation.

Germany has achieved its position through long term planning, wise investment, good education and the hard work of its people. The deficits of the UK and USA are result of their deficits in exactly those respects.




And its relations between management and workers and the esteem with which the culture holds people such as engineers - a title that even entitles them to an honorific in that culture.

To try and weasel out of recognising these things and to try and blame the Euro is just baffling.

I suppose Japan’s similar success along with Germany in supplying many of the world’s best cars and machine tools is also down to the fact they adopted the Euro, is it?

When do you think the USA will target Japan, @HuwJarse? I mean, it has to come, I think it may well be next before the EU because they are an easier, smaller target to bully.

Not as small and easy as the UK will be post Brexit, of course. Remember, the rallying-cry of the Trump-groupies is ‘America First’. Period. Nothing about ‘and Britain too because we’re dying to do them a favour’.

No, it will be more guff about targeting our communist-like protection of our NHS service and whatever other excuses they can come up with to grind us under the Trump jackboot.


imagine all those people buying Mercs BMW AUDI etc rather than Skoda and Fiat because they are so cheap.


Last one from me tonight but also comes from buns


What I find with most of you on this board is that in your desire to keep changing the subject you’ve either forgotten, or wilfully ignored, what was said at the start of the thread. As I pointed out previously, Japan has a tiny trade surplus with the US. Trump is most interested in the main offender, the EU and Germany.

Who do you think is the biggest foreign investor in the US? It is the UK. Ditto the US for investment in the UK. The relationship between us is strong not because of the past but because of the our shared business interests. Of course, small minded self-loathers like you can only see the future in terms of we are small, will be bullied, need mummy EU’s apron strings to keep us safe etc. Nothing new there then.


The USA is already at war with the EU over Iran. European businesses have retreated from Iran under the threat of sanctions. That’s bad for us, but has further tragic consequences. If any change in Iran can happen, it will be driven by the middle class. The sanctions are eradicating the middle class and strenghening the hard liners. At the same time the USA are flattering the barbarians in Saudi Arabia. It’s wrong, tragic and may cause huge danger in near east.

And anyone who is supporting Trump is making himself guilty. Nobody shall say they didn’t know.


Skoda is Volkswagen and people in Wolfsburg hate them, because they often beat their quality at a better price.


Brexiteer alternative facts?

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, February 2019

Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.1), European Union ($12.4), Mexico ($7.7), Japan ($6.7), Germany ($5.5), Italy ($2.8), South Korea ($2.4), India ($2.2), France ($2.2), Taiwan ($1.7), and Saudi Arabia ($0.3).

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, March 2019

Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($28.3), European Union ($15.8), Mexico ($8.6), Japan ($6.1), Germany ($5.7), Italy ($2.8), Canada ($2.1), Taiwan ($2.0), South Korea ($1.8), India ($1.8), France ($1.7), and United Kingdom ($0.2).

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, April 2019

Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($29.4), European Union ($15.1), Mexico ($7.9), Japan ($6.5), Germany ($5.4), Italy ($3.1), Taiwan ($2.0), France ($2.0), Canada ($1.8), South Korea ($1.5), India ($1.3), United Kingdom ($0.4), Saudi Arabia ($0.2), and OPEC (less than $0.1).

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, May 2019

Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.1), European Union ($16.9), Mexico ($9.1), Japan ($6.0), Germany ($5.8), Canada ($3.6), Italy ($2.6), France ($2.1), India ($1.9), Taiwan ($1.5), South Korea ($1.4), and OPEC ($0.1).

oops, the deficit with Japan was even higher.

ok, now I’m getting curious. How did 2018 look?

Trade in Goods with Japan

deficit with Japan -67,195.9

Trade in Goods with Germany

deficit with Germany -68,096.0

The trade surplus of both countries with the USA is pretty much the same. That shows that your thesis is completely wrong. Do ever check your facts?

Interesting though that says that the deficit including services is even bigger. That’s different from what I read elsewhere.


What has this got do with anything? Tiny, tiny brain, which part of “America First” don’t you understand?

Are you honestly suggesting that we can play America at their own game and win? Biggest foreign investor in the US. I suppose you asked the chamber of commerce about that did you?

Now read and learn something …

"In April 2019, China owned $1.11 trillion of U.S. debt. It’s the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities. The second largest holder is Japan at $1.06 trillion. Both Japan and China want to keep the value of the dollar higher than the value of their currencies. That helps keep their exports affordable for the United States, which helps their economies grow.

Despite China’s occasional threats to sell its holdings, both countries are happy to be America’s biggest foreign bankers. China replaced the United Kingdom as the second largest foreign holder on May 31, 2007. That’s when it increased its holdings to $699 billion, outpacing the United Kingdom’s $640 billion.

Brazil is the third largest holder with $317 billion. The United Kingdom is next, holding $301 billion. It’s fallen in rank as its economy weakens due to Brexit. It’s followed by Ireland with $270 billion and Switzerland with $227 billion.

Luxembourg is seventh at $224 billion. The Bureau of International Settlements believes it is a front for sovereign wealth funds (Norway) and hedge funds whose owners don’t want to reveal their positions. So are the Cayman Islands, holding $217 billion, and Belgium at $180 billion.

After the Cayman Islands, the next largest holders are Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, and India. They each hold between $155 billion and $206 billion. "

When did the UK (or anyone else) ever level sizable fines on any American corporation that has got out of line? It didn’t, is the answer. The EU is the only bloc large enough to make American companies cough up. Its a reality you can’t stand because if you faced up to the truth you know you would loathe yourself.

You Trump-groupies are always calling patriotic and protective Remainers ‘self-loathers’ when such a label couldn’t be more wrong. I always wondered where it came from and now it has finally dawned.

You loathe yourself everytime you realise we need the EU’s clout in the modern world and you can’t stand the thought because you’re such a little Englander. Therefore you lash out, without thinking, and label others instead. Thus revealing your true feelings. Its called Projection, and is a well known psychological phenomenon.

Psychological projection is a defense mechanism weak-willed people subconsciously employ in order to cope with difficult feelings or emotions. Psychological projection involves projecting undesirable feelings or emotions onto someone else, rather than admitting to or dealing with the unwanted feelings.

Here is another definition
Psychological projection is a defence mechanism in which the human ego defends itself against unconscious impulses or qualities by denying their existence in themselves while attributing them to others. For example, a person who is habitually rude may constantly accuse other people of being rude. This trait is typically revealed by the same term or terms being used repetitively and often inappropriately. In this example the subject’s own habitual rudeness is revealed over time.


Do you actually know the difference between FDI and buying treasuries? Clearly not. Spanner.


We don’t NEED the EU’s “clout” as you put it?
We’re dont have a choice at the moment as being part of the eu they do all the negotiating for us.
The UK should be able to conduct its own trade negotiations imo


A classic example - hit them where it hurts - but you have to be big enough.

"President George W Bush has backed away from a trade war with Europe by announcing he will lift the illegal tariffs he imposed on steel imports to America 20 months ago.

The White House announced the decision following a week in which Mr Bush has visited America’s main steel-producing states in an attempt to head off a backlash among steel workers.

It also came a month after the World Trade Organisation branded the 30 per cent tariff imposed on imports from Europe, Asia and South America as illegal.

The European Union had also threatened a trade war with tit-for-tat sanctions on American exports of up to $2.2 billion (£1.3 billion).

Top of the list of possible sanction targets were orange juice and other citrus products which would have hit Mr Bush’s popularity in states such as Florida where the last election was decided."

Clever targeting got the job done. Do you think the UK slapping a tariff on oranges would have had the same impact on Bush as he and his brother (Governor of Florida) headed into an election year? No is the answer, the illegal tariffs on UK steel would have carried on.


UK representatives (just as for other EU states) are kept abreast of negotiations and have input to them. Clearly, what they want from a Deal and negotiating principles/points form a large part of forming a strategy well before they enter into any negotiations.

Without the leverage and market size of the EU bloc behind it, the UK is going to come away with worse deals (for the UK) with whoever it negotiates with than it could have got by being in the EU.

Japan is just one example:

Japan is seeking tougher concessions from Britain in trade talks than it secured from the EU, while negotiations between London and Tokyo are also being slowed by the looming risk of no-deal Brexit.
Japanese trade negotiators are confident they can extract better terms, the Financial Times reported, in a sign of the mounting difficulties facing UK officials as they attempt to line up post-Brexit trade deals around the world.



Better than you apparently if you think private investments can be used as more leverage in negotiations than treasuries.

A good example. To make good spanners you don’t just need any old steel, you need chrome and vanadium too. Commodities which are priced in dollars (and not available in the UK as a natural resource). Which means the input costs for our basic tool makers with regard to these crucial additions have risen by around 15%-20% since the announcement of the referendum.

How do you think that helps the very few tool manufacturers we have left, when once we were the world leader?

I’ll tell you, it doesn’t help one little bit. Which is why most of them don’t even manufacture tools anymore, they just re-badge them. That makes them a sales or service organisation, and not a manufacturer. Weakening our economy by unbalancing it further towards services and making those companies exceedingly vulnerable as they are effectively just middle-men. And we all know what happens to middle-men in business, sooner or later, don’t we?