Brexit Wars 3



Earlier today I estimated that the FTSE100 has dropped by 9.35% since its recent high point. I have just run the slide rule over my diversified portfolio and found that I am down just 6% since the high point. Its only a little over 3% better than the market as a whole. It would be too complicated and time consuming to do a more detailed analysis to try to discover where the over and under performance is. I will content myself with the thought that a well diversified portfolio in terms of international and sector exposure is likely to have helped. but WTFDIK?


Frog in a tree

p.s JD, if you read this, how about a comp to estimate the lowest point in the FTSE100 by 31/12/19?


By all accounts Richard Wagner was anti-semitic. If someone listens to his music or goes to his operas, does that make them anti-semitic too. I don’t know.
I suppose you could love his music but disagree with his views, is that one way at looking at things. Perhaps some people are willing to overlook the many flaws that Trump has because they think he offers something they like.
Personally I think that Trump is a bully & a racist and I have no time for him. I’m no fan of Wagner either (too many fat German birds screaming at the top of their voices in a foreign language :wink:)


Wagner died in 1883. Times were different then. We talked about enlightenment this week and as asociety we are better in many ways than were were in 1883. Anti-semitism would have been very common in 1883 as was the suppression of women and working class people. We might disapprove today of Wagner’s attitudes but we do need to contextualise it, even if not forgive it. The position with those today like The Groper is different, in that they have had access to more enlightened views but still choose to oppress others with their discriminatory attitudes. I think that is quite different.


Frog in a tree


No it doesn’t.

If someone denied that a clear racist was such… then you’d have to ask what their reasons were for the denial ie. do they have other information/facts?
You can like someone’s music without lending support to their views. Some people here flatly refuse to accept that notable people like Trump hold racist beliefs.


SBUK - good afternoon

Thanks for your response.
It was good to see a post with the forensic logic and argument construction of a whelk!
Still, your’s was at a distinctly higher intellectual level than the others


So you can like what Trump does - his ‘music’ - but not support his views…is that what you’re saying?


Yes. If someone said they like what the Trump Administration has done specifically on x or y… then that would probably be OK.
However, when certain people are then asked… again specifically… what about Trump’s views on women… or Muslims… or Mexicans… and then they fail to respond on those specific points but obfuscate and generalise… you have to draw your own conclusions why that might be.

There’s no harm for instance in liking the music of Wagner whilst in parallel knowing he was a racist (not that I know if he was or not).
Usually when people say they like Wagner… they are referring to his music and not his views on Jews… but to be sure… you’d have to question them further… as happens here.


There is also the fact that he is a political leader and,as such, judgements about moral character are very relevant.

Judgements about the moral character of supporters of people like The Groper are also relevant as through their support they become complicit.



More evidence that Brexit is a bad idea…

More than half of farms will go bust if Boris Johnson forces through a no-deal Brexit, farmers are warning, as some join the campaign for a fresh referendum.
A deadly cocktail of immediate tariffs, border checks, increased red tape and cheaper food imports from outside the EU will result in the “decimation of UK farming”, a detailed study finds.
“Many industries will suffer, but the industry that would suffer the most serious economic shock will be agriculture,” a former chief economist of the National Farmers Union (NFU) concludes.



JW - good morning

Thanks for the link m8 - interesting reading.
Saw that the real source wasn’t ‘apple news’ but is really from the Independent (so-called but in reality a ‘Remain’ rag) written by Rob Merrick.
In addition to your quoted bits of speculation above, you somehow missed the last bit of the article giving the Government’.s position

“We have interventions that are aimed to support them and their incomes.”

But the department for the environment, food and rural affairs (Defra) disputed the analysis, saying: “The cash total for farm support will be protected until 2022, even in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

“We will also intervene to provide direct support to boost some sectors in the unlikely event this is required.”

On the threat of mass slaughter of animals, the spokesperson added: “We have also been clear that a widespread cull of livestock is absolutely not something that the government anticipates, nor is planning for, in the event of no deal.”

Thought this might give an element of balance. I hope you agree that you wouldn’t like other readers here to get the impression you are in any way biased!


I post the first paragraph usually John… and then supply a working link of the source so anyone interested can read the whole story. I’m not pasting all of the story from the link.
Yes, Apple News collects stories from a variety of sources… including the Independent. The sources of this story are the NFU… and the people from that organisation are quoted within it. You don’t have to believe industry experts again… but make your own mind up given the facts they present.

And yes, you are right that this Government is disputing the impact of No Deal… and saying that if worst happens they will provide bungs from taxpayers to cover over the inevitable cracks that open up.


JW - hi

Quite right too.
Money will go from Government to Farmers.
Instead of Government to EU to Farmers. Cutting out the ‘middleman’


Jar, but isn’t that money that was promised for the NHS…part of the so called £350m per week?

Also the money the EU currently pays to the UK farming sector isn’t to compensate them for loss of access to a key market (the EU single market). So UK taxpayers will be paying to replace EU farming subsidies until 2022 and potentially economic support because farming has lost access to the single market…don’t even mention the extra competition from North American farmers should we get a trade deal with the USA.

Tax rises or increased debt?? bet is increased debt…or perhaps we can genetically clone a few more of the magic Brexit money tree (it just keeps on giving).


After JD’s story of kids attacking a rastafarian guitar player, here is news of the consequence of letting kids run riot:

"Peter Duncan (a 52-year-old lawyer) was attacked and stabbed to death with a screwdriver in what police said was an unprovoked chance “coming together” (outside a branch of Greggs) with a group of youths near Old Eldon Square in Newcastle.

He was attacked at about 18:20 BST on Wednesday and died later in hospital.

Seven teenage boys have been arrested on suspicion of his murder. The boys, a 14 year-old, two 15-year-olds and four 17-year-olds, remain in custody."


Wagner had a flawed character. When he was young and unknown he praised Meyerbeer, who was the star of operetta composers. Wagner wrote sycophantic letters to him. Later he published that essay about the Jew in the music that was aimed at Meyerbeer without spelling his name and denied any true emotion or depth to Jewish composers. Perhaps the motivation was more his own envy and hybris than true antisemitism, but definitely not the behaviour of a good character.

Many geniuses had flawed characters. Perhaps you can only achieve great things with some amount of selfishness, although persons like Felix Mendelssohn gave much better examples.

Notwithstanding Trump has a flawed character without the excuse of being a genius, not even average education.


Is the money spared from EU membership fees then not going to the NHS?


Wrong calculation. The farmers will lose both EU subsidies and income from exports. It’s easy to conclude that the government will have to spend more than it gave to the EU. There is still the little detail what to do with their output that cannot be sold as consumers switch to imported products?


Exactly Oily.
All these bungs to various parties, promises of assistance in the event of Brexit issues let alone the giant cost of Brexit preparations are coming from UK taxpayers. Where is the accounting for all this? Where is the ‘Brexit Bill’ ?

What was touted as a money saver is in fact a huge cost to the UK… not just as a one-off but ongoing until… some deal is signed with the EU.
And chances of that deal being better than we have today are zero.

Brexit is bad for the UK as well as an enormous waste of time and money.


Tory MP Guto Bebb has said that he would support an interim Corbyn- led government as it would be short term and better than a generational crash out Brexit. I think he is right. He should get kicked out of the Tory party for this but with a majority of only one???

Likewise Kenneth Clarke has intimated that he might be prepared to lead an interim unity government. Another one for the chop?

Elements in Phillip Hamond’s constituency party have been telling him to shut up or face a vote of no confidence? Maybe another one for the chop?

And then we have Gauke, Stewart and the rest. Brexit Wars is truly engaged and the Tory Brexiters are trying to re-enact the role of the yeoman cavalry at the Massacre of Peterloo in another battle against democracy.

Whether there is any serious chance of defeating Johnson’s administration in a vote of confidence and installing a government of national unity I am not sure. If so, I would prefer for Clarke to be PM with Harman as Deputy. It needs to be someone who doesn’t have ambitions to be a substantive PM. The interim government needs to be short-term with a simple programme of arranging a second referendum with a choice between “No Deal”, “May’s Deal (or tweaked version of)” and “Remain” with voting on a single transferable basis. Other than that, the interim government would need to mind the shop and then, once the people have decided arrange an election to restore normal government.

To what extent normal government will be possible after Brexit is resolved one way or another is doubtful. Feelings of bitterness and betrayal will persist for decades most likely.

Any views?

Frog in a tree


Brexit… a danger to our Security too. Just an expert on the subject talking though… so Brexiteers can ignore it as he must be lying.

John - Pasted all of it for you this time rather than just first paragraph so you don’t have to worry about links.

No amount of preparation can mitigate the security threat of a no-deal Brexit, according to Scotland Yard’s top counterterror official.

“There are lots of things we can do but they are no way near as good the systems that were developed,” Scotland Yard Assistant Commissioner Neil Basu told the Guardian, referring to the EU’s crime-fighting apparatus.

If the U.K. tumbles out of the EU without a divorce agreement, it could lose priority access to security and border management intelligence through the Schengen Information System II database, as well as passenger name records and European Arrest Warrants.

“We have done a lot of contingency planning to put things in place. But there are some things you can’t put in place. So there is no contingency planning for not being given passenger name records," Basu said. “It would create an immediate risk that people could come to this country who were serious offenders, either wanted or still serial and serious offenders committing crimes in this country, and we would not know about it."

He added: "There would be some damage to our safety. I can’t put a scale on that.”

If Britain leaves the bloc without a deal, it could take years for suspects to be returned under the 1957 European convention on extradition, in contrast with the six weeks it takes using a European Arrest Warrant.