Brexit Wars 3



Hi Eadwig,

I get the impression (maybe mistakenly though?) that Huw is one of those welcoming Brexit partly on ideological grounds. Though with his previously cited City background, he may also have been astute enough to have reduced investments in UK-centric stocks & increased stakes in dollar-earning global stocks. If so, his position becomes a bit more comprehensible, as opposed to all those hardcore Brexiteers living in straitened financial circumstances, habitually cursing their lot in life.

However, if his glee is just an anticipated schadenfreude, then indeed that seems rather sad. - Regards. Edit: Corrected typo in “straitened”.


JW - hi
Yes I have


Well it is pantomime season John.


Hi @oilovlam

Have you taken your bat home? Your contributions are being missed.




JW - hi
With your IQ you could get the part of the beanstalk!


Oh dear Jack. Now is the time to buy UK stocks, there is going to be a short term mini boom after this election.


Yep… and you could be the rear end of the horse.



I’ve said similar elsewhere, be it with provisos. Namely, assuming a Tory win, any rise in UK-centric stocks may be relatively short-lived & curtailed by Johnson’s quite asinine, strict deadline to complete new trade deals with EU by end of 2020. No informed commentators that I’m aware of think that’s remotely likely.

Hence the support for Johnson’s WA from far-right political trash like the ERG. - GL.


Yes. 1 day. Then the new trade tariffs kick in on China over the weekend. Could be the biggest trading volume day of the year.


Boom? LOL.

Brexit exit:




and that’s on top of the 17.5% haircut commercial property took in the aftermath of the referendum. Brexiteers always seem to forget that and say the Project Fear mongers got it all wrong. They are partly right, admittedly, an 18% cut had been warned about.


Brexit, the handy excuse for everyone. In the same way that forgiveness is the convenient spiritual morning after pill for religious sinnners our corporate friends now have Brexit.


Amazing isn’t it?

It is all predicted and its ‘project fear’. Then the predictions come true and its all an excuse.

Pig headed ignorance.


Maybe I am breaking ranks here but to me the problems in the commercial property area may not be all that Brexit-related.

True, the devaluation of the pound has made many imported goods more expensive but additionally, and over a longer timeframe we have had a decade long decline in real wages starting from the financial crisis and then worsened by Tory austerity. These two factors in combination will have hit retailers’ profit margins and consequently their abilty to maintain rental payments agreed in more prosperous times.

To return to an earlier theme, there is no doubt that online retailers are also impacting on traditional retailers by taking a big slice of their sales with lower physical and staffing overheads and, not least, with tax advantages by being headquartered in low tax countries such as Ireland and Luxembourg.

In a trading environment where profit is made on narrow margins it is easy to see how takings are being sucked out of Manchester Arndale and the like and into the welcoming arms of Amazon.

The suppression of wages through Tory austerity and the tax avoidance of companies like Amazon has caused serious problems for the balance of our economy and for employment opportunities. The building and running of Amazon warehouses results in a net loss of jobs once we take account of the closure of all those department stores who have been driven out of business. This is not a Luddite analysis, it is an economic reality.

Frog in a tree


None of it has come true. You just blame every bad thing that happens on it. I notice the pound is rising strongly in anticipation of a BoJo victory, that would explain why you’ve suddenly shut up about it.


I’ve been discussing it on another thread every day which just underlines your pig ignorance.


As I don’t read that thread it is hardly a sign of ignorance. What it does underline is your reluctance to discuss it here.


The higher GBP goes the bigger winner I am. What’s to discuss?


I agree with you about commercial property prices Froglet.
What is undeniable is that Brexit is causing shocks to their valuations. Over a long period of time you would expect it to settle down.
Point is though that this is still an exercise in shooting yourself in the foot for no good reason.

You may remember that back in June the BoE Governor Mark Carney saying that funds like Woodford’s are “built on a lie” because of their liquidity mismatch.
This M&G fund is little different in that respect and invests heavily in the UK retail parks and property.


JW - hi
Thanks for the suggestion m8.
Even as a horse’s ar@e I’ll still talk more sense than you