Menu
Close

Brexit Wars 3

lse:hsba
lse:lloy
lse:barc

#6551

The true horror to come is that the policy response to Brexit will be ultra loose monetary policy with loads of QE as it seems like a get out of jail free card and worked for the 2008 crisis. I suspect it will have a rather different outcome this time in an economy whose productive capacity is being hollowed out by Brexit.
Severe inflation.


#6552

JW, exactly right…it’s easy to make a business case for any project…“improvement in tourism figures, number of visitors”…based on ‘estimated’ increase in tourist numbers and tourism spend…but once it’s built it’s built it’s difficult to ‘unbuild’ something…and if the ‘actual’ figures fall far short of ‘estimates’ then it’s too late. That’s why the ‘estimated’ figures can be open to abuse & manipulation to suit a purpose.

A380 was projected to build 1500 planes but only managed 250…I’m sure the business case for the A380 was ‘sound’. I wonder at what point they realised they were building a white elephant.


#6553

Airframes last for decades. Missiles and radar can be updated (and were) as you go along. What about the embarrassment factor of having state of the art aircraft carriers with no planes at all?

Easily shot down? You missed the bit about the Harrier easily shooting down all-comers from the US air force, typically a kill ratio in the harriers favour of about 5:1 (mainly against F16s).

You know, those missiles you see on James Bond that fire off in any direction then find and lock onto their target are a fiction? Plus there is no plane that can outrun a missile anyway. Its all about getting your weapons and radar pointing in the right direction at the time of release. While still operating there was no plane that could beat them at that.


#6554

In today’s world Aircraft carriers are useless unless you want to invade somewhere like Vanuatu.

They would be sitting ducks against an adversary such as Russia or China or one of their proxies. They are just large targets. I’ve been on one and the only good thing about them is that they are big enough to give you a nice, smooth ride even in choppy waters.

Also, because they are so tall in the water they afford good views, such as one of the best sights in the world: Southampton receding into the distance.

IMHO,

SBK


#6555

I was reading about the A380 history and some of their ex-COO Leahy’s comments just recently… interesting stuff.
I wouldn’t class the A380 as a white elephant but it’s certainly turned into a commercial failure.

“…it’s easy to make a business case for any project”
and
“…and if the ‘actual’ figures fall far short of ‘estimates’ then it’s too late.”

Going back to things like the wall and the bridge… I don’t think it is difficult to create credible business cases at all personally… not if you have the right type of people evaluating the likelihoods of achieving the benefits upfront. The problem is when those things get politicized or left to those Departments with blinkered views and/or who act out of pure self-interest.
In the US, the wall has become something that’s no longer about whether it would work or the economics of it… it’s become a general free for all argument about immigration and is now firmly associated with the latest turd in office (Totus).

I’m aware that most politicians have short political careers in contrast to some of the projects they might start but it isn’t about them… it’s about the country and whether the benefits are eventually realised or not so the reviews years later on what was done, whether objectives were achieved, if it was a success etc. are all important else you either never end up investing anything or worse just lurch from one disaster to the next.

As an example, every time you hear the drumbeats sounding for “action” somewhere around the world, be it Syria, wherever… then the first thing people should be reminded to do is dust off and re-read Chilcot’s report from the Iraq Inquiry.


#6556

I’m sure you are right that for superpower countries like Russia, US and China their military capability is a factor that can be used for some form of leverage in trade deals. That would be one of just many factors that are important of course.
However, for the UK… the fact that it has sunk £12bn+ (plus ongoing maintenance costs) into two aircraft carriers is neither here nor there when it comes to negotiating any future trade deal.
I really don’t think that the military capabilities of the UK in negotiating Brexit with the EU would have played any part… nor with any future trade deals… or continuity agreements.

It’s OK saying that they are to meet a threat that today we don’t know about… but then that argument could be used for almost anything being spent on any future military project.

Plain fact is that these ships… once ready in a few years time… are going to wallow around for the following decade until they are scrapped forever with a small armada of support and protective ships with no real purpose.

As SBUK alluded to… I would be amazed if the already-in-existence new generation of anti-ship missiles that are relatively cheap, stealthy, supersonic, sea-skimming, autonomous, adept at evading defences… and generally very devious… wouldn’t be able to hunt down these slow moving massive targets at the first sign of any real conflict.


#6557

Eadwig, do you have a link?


#6558

You need impartial organisations to run the cost/benefit numbers…taken out of the influence of politicians.

And you need politicians with vision who can push forward improvements for the long term good of the country. We don’t have such people - look at how long Heathrow expansion was kicked around - and this makes any chance of Brexit being a long term success seem a little uncertain (IMO).


#6559

I think you are wrong. Brexit puts France in poll position to be the one representative, with VETO power, for the European region once (probably) India’s calls to replace one of the two on the security council can no longer be denied with a straight face.

Whether or not we veto the proposal or step aside will no doubt be put out as a referendum question.


#6560

Eadwig - good afternoon


#6561

I’m quoting book knowledge, not the internet. Try Wiki on harriers, especially the sea variant which is what I’m talking about.

F16s are still being sold, by the way, just to make another point about the age of a plane’s design.


#6562

I think all immigrants should be deported from the USA. I mean what good are they?

Yes, return the land to the Native Americans and the Buffalo.

IMHO,

SBK


#6563

It is a point of view. My American driver was outraged by the delays and infringement of her freedom to go where she wanted in her own free country.


#6564

Brexit vote has cost UK economy much more than the divorce bill ?

“That amounts to around £40bn per year, or £800m per week of lost income for the country as a whole,”
When we were promised £350m /week for the NHS this is why we need another referendum…


#6565

Back to the Brexit fiasco.

Its looking likely now that a fantastic 21 month extension is going to happen.

Simply because:

A) Everyone knows that “No deal” cannot happen. The pressure from business is just too great. And despite what that hack journo Johnson says business matters more than anything such as bent democracy and old guys’ fantasies.

B) Given the above why would the EU surrender on the backstop?

C) With the backstop still in place it is hard to see the rabid Brexiteers in the Tory Party and DUP allowing May’s deal to pass through Parliament.

Its a gargantuan mess, almost beyond belief.

IMHO,

SBK


#6566

SBUK

No! - only the illegal ones
JAR


#6567

One day you or members of your family will find yourselves needing assistance from some Good Samaritans. And that will be karma.

IMHO,

SBK


#6568

Another bill defeated…WTO is the only option left Theresa .


#6569

You sure that was a bill?


#6570

Eadwig, I’m not sure I believe your claim that Harriers beat ‘mainly’ F16’s in a dog fight…the best reference you could come up with is “…I’m quoting book knowledge”. I’m beginning to suspect a ‘tall tale’.

“Comparing the F-16 and the Harrier is similar to comparing apples to oranges, Hugg said. “The jets are completely different,” he explained…” [https://www.blogbeforeflight.net/2017/07/marine-harrier-pilot-flies-air-force-f.html]