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Business Update

lse:fum

#1

So, interesting business update… Obvious downside to me, no MED2002 deal and future funding required.

I’ve been out from FUM for a couple of years after years of limited progress and I was losing faith and cut my losses. However, at the current price, this is tempting again - all the same risks are there, nothing has been commercialised yet, but for someone who hasn’t followed too closely, reading todays news shows some real progress being made. IMO the sp is going to hinge on the outcome of phase 3 trials for MED2002 and then followed by a deal to be made.

So I’m in for now. I see this as high risk - phase 3 trials are anything from certain, but these are (hopefully!) rock bottom prices (ish, lets see where the funding actually puts the sp). Upside much more tempting from these levels.

Shame to see Tony not posting here anymore - I used to watch from the sidelines and he did a lot of useful digging. Although shocked to see PJ not preaching the way of the chart.


#2

Agree, probably 16 months cash, upside on Phase 3 success is obvious. Using known compound combined with Phase 2 outcomes would indicate lower risk, much lower than novel molecules, or known molecules for different conditions. Unlike yourself, held shares so in the red, but using this as a buying opportunity to reduce average b/p. Not unusual for highs and lows in these kind of shares, driven up many factors, not all rational


#3

I miss PJ too. Most certainly the fall was not caused by recent news :slight_smile:


#4

Clearly we must have been very close to a deal from the length of time and the various news releases. My guess is that James Barder & Co were not offered quite as much as they were looking for.

Am still shocked that we haven’t been bought yet! We have what I & many believe is a blockbuster drug (in MED2002) and (in my opinion) the likelihood that it will get through Phase 3 with the kind of data required is very high. I guess it shows how incredibly risk averse big pharma are.

I feel very sorry for all the nonsense and abuse James Barder seems to be getting on forums such as LSE, with multiple people saying he should stand down.

So many modern-day investors are fly-by-night investors who are expecting a huge gain in a very short space of time with many of them investing with little or no knowledge (or interest) in the company’s fundamentals. I sense it’s these folk that are all calling for ‘blood’.

Very little has actually changed since the AGM aside from the fact that at the Nth hour we were unable to get a deal signed that the board felt was suitable at this stage in the FDA approval cycle. Anyone at the recent AGM would have heard the board talking down the prospects of the CSD condoms due to the lack of a willing global partner. They also talked about cutting back on any spend related to CSD to instead conserve it for the Jewel In The Crown (MED).

James Barder and the rest of the board (in my opinion) have done an excellent job overall. We must be mindful of the fact that FUM are a tiny organisation and do not have the huge funds necessary to have the depth of experience in every business aspect. Where they are strongest is where it’s most important: The Chemistry and the hugely complex regulatory know-how. I may be fairly isolated here, but I applaude them on the fact that they have developed such a strong pipeline of products to where they are today.

I have some knowledge of the subject, having worked at both GSK and a start-up Biotech in Silicon Valley. The start-up had a similar journey except they were more of a one trick (product) pony which they managed to eventually (in a similar manner to FUM) get through to a successful NDA, whereupon they were swiftly taken over.

The reason small companies such as FUM might make a few mistakes is simply because they do not have the depth of all-round experience that a big pharma do.

James Barder is the spine of FUM. Without him, we would not be standing at the dawn of a licensed blockbuster.

At the last AGM, it was also mentioned that the Phase 3 trials are due to be carried out in 2 parts, the second part a continuation of the first. It was stated that we just about had enough funds to get us through Part 1.

I strongly suspect we’ll get bought out as soon as the Part 1 results are out (assuming they’re as good as I think they’ll be). Whether or not FUM will need to raise further funds is the million dollar question. If I was at the helm and I thought we had enough cash to get us to Part 1 results, that’s what I would do (taking the ‘gamble’ that we’ll have several willing partners to foot the bill for Part 2).

FUM is a very thinly traded stock and hence can move rapidly up or down (as we’ve recently seen). The rapid down movement (in my opinion) is filtering away all the fly-by-night speculators, leaving behind those of us that are invested based on the underlying fundamentals. I strongly suspect that Aberdeen & Tony remain invested, if somewhat disillusioned!

Remember not to mix emotions with stock investments and buy (decent stocks) when all around are fearful!

Keep the faith. GLA


#5

Summarised excellently Fx


#6

Interesting point regarding potentially not needing additional funding until Part 1 complete - even if not bought out, positive outcome (presumably allowed to publicise at this point?) would give more strength to the company upon which fundraising would be made, or as you suggest, potentially allow a deal to be made.

Would it be fair to suggest, that even though this is not a one trick pony, the future of FUM is now reliant on MED? That would be my take.

The market appears to have reacted to the news thinking that no deal = not enough interest from majors… (or combination of this plus the expectation of fund raising) my understanding is that it is not uncommon for a company to be bought out following successful phase 2 trials - so either the markets sentiment is correct, or JB is asking for a premium which the majors are not willing to pay against the current level of risk?

Presumably, if the ‘major’s’ had a price that they would have been willing to buy, and for FUM to have turned this down, the FUM board will have hopefully taken into account the sp knock-down from this news and the potential affect of dilution if more funds raised in this manner to complete phase 3.