Buy at 157.30. Re-added a 2nd tranche of shares to my original entry here. I also hold mistimed leveraged longs in BARC as posted here.
Reasons: support not far below, falls look sentiment-driven, volume looks set for low, a bounce to at least 168+ seems doable in reasonable time. Any recovery closer to 170 likely to tempt me to sell. - GLA.
Closed 5 longs as above for 148.45. For transparency’s sake, took a significant 4-figure hit, though some of that handing back past gains.
Keeping my share buys at 157.30 & the original at 198.85. Also one leveraged long left as posted at 174.46.
Reasons personal. I’ve done well trading UKX since 1st March. Taken over 500 pts. However, my stakes have been pegged back to £2 max due to holding too much rubbish eating up margin & taking costs. I see no redemption of these 5 long positions any time soon, but more of said effect on margin & added holding costs. To what end? Pointless.
Needless to say, leveraged stakes on stocks far exceed £2. Hence the extent of my hit.
But this will allow me to increase stakes on UKX in future.
Looking ahead, more leveraged garbage will be ditched after VOD’s XD on 6th June. The hit there will likewise be considerable. - Say no more.
And there is me increasing my Barclays holding today Jack, while I admit I am averaging down
Average must be around 161p now here with Barclays
Its not easy this game FTSE 100 UK companies have been smashed by the Market since June 2016
Thank God I grossed around 10% in Dividends in the first 6 months of 2019 and this is paying me to hold and top up on sell-offs so far and will be sticking to dividend paying UK stocks only holding one AIM side bet on the go : AAOG average 10p … with news about to hit the Door Mat with an updated oil production figures from recently successful drill
Thanks. IMO, 161 seems a decent average. But sometimes big decisions are called for. As you did to your credit recently with RMG.
To give this added perspective: a few weeks ago I had excessive leveraged exposure to UK banks. Booked gains on all LLOY longs. Today took a huge hit here. Existing leveraged exposure in banks is now down to 1 BARC long.
Whilst those longs on stocks are much greater than with UKX, they’re nothing like as big as share buys. I still hold 2 tranches of shares in BARC, 3 tranches in LLOY. But those have less added risk & no added costs. With leverage, both gains & losses snowball.
Why this major decision now? IMO, we’re seeing increasing risk of a harder Brexit, or even another early GE. Not a cert by any means, but those risks heightened recently. Those risks may persist for a long time. If we had breaking news when I’m away from my desk, I’d be courting far greater trouble being highly leveraged in UK banks. Plus, some of my longs might not have recovered for ages.
However, this & settling VOD will be my last major trading decisions this year. I may even sell some VOD before 6th June XD & transfer into a couple of other stocks same day. Only because I might be transferring my broker account soon & want to get this business sorted first.
Otherwise, I’ll now focus on UKX with SBs, even if I reduce leverage elsewhere. - Regards.
Why? This is nothing more than disastrous, slaptick trading. “With leverage, both gains & losses snowball”, yeah, & the market turns against you! The posts just on this thread are consistently wrong.
Look at Deutsche Bank, something is seriously wrong. It´s nothing to worry about though, what has it got to do with, Barclays? Going through a lot of historical posts here & on the likes of youtube, there is one constant feature over 90% of predictions turn out wrong!
Bear markets with individual firms & sectors can last a long time. The 11th negative consecutive year in banking. You have to look at the events of 1929, for direction! All signs are that we are heading for another recession. Good luck, following this guy!
Try not to be an even sadder troll on here than you are elsewhere on these BBs, not to mention having apparent difficulty in grasping basic things. He doesn’t follow me or anyone else with his approach. He looks at my trades from interest as all gains & losses are posted with honesty & transparency.
Then we can look at your calls across all BBs on ii & we see not a single trade posted live. About 90% of your academic calls proven very wrong mere weeks later.
You remain a typical low-grade poster full of petty digs & I’ve already asked you politely a few times on the SBRY BB: kindly stop following me around on various BBs where I post only to find you popping up soon after. You’ve nothing of value to contribute to me & you appear to have no declared positions or any personal interest in BARC, SBRY or much else to my knowledge. Cheers.
I have nothing to contribute? I have something you haven´t that is patience. Your calls are more or less consistently wrong. I would never post any trade like 99% of posters that have been here since the early days of 1998, I believe in discretion & privacy. what you´re doing is leaving yourself open to ridicule.
I am looking for geniune, honest people, your posts represent something very similar to compulsive gambling. If I see someone posting to what i think is rubbish, I will counter, separating fact from fallacy. it´s all about mathematical knowledge that will determine success or failure. The probabilty of chance theory is everything.
I was following many threads on banking, it makes for some very sorry reading. Q) What did most posters on here learn from 07-08? A) Sweet FA. Look at Noel Edmonds, posts against Lloyds & the board. & this is how banks are run!
Predictable reply on a personal level. You’re not only trolling, you’re either an arrant liar or you’re so smug that you make easy assumptions without bothering to inform yourself.
I started this game February 2009. Since then my trading history shows many profitable calls. Including across all UK banks. Back then all major banks saw very strong rises from historical lows, along with repeated sell-offs & further bounces. However, as is transparent, I’ve also made still too many mistimed clangers for my liking. Par for the course.
I cut losses here not without fresh reason. News that Theresa May’s replacement is likely to be a strong pro-Brexiteer prepared to go for No-Deal may see UK banks struggle to recover to recent highs for far longer than I anticipated. May’s departure changes things. This sector is particularly vulnerable to No-Deal. Recent falls in banking sector & Sterling indicate rising market fears of such an outcome
I took the hit & freed up margin for trading other interests, rather than paying daily holding costs to no obvious avail.
Classic sign of a sad inadequate troll is focusing only on others poor trading calls. For eg. in just recent weeks I’ve taken well over 500 points profit from UKX. All trades posted live.
The posting of live trades which some other traders also do, be it mostly on another site, goes back to the time I joined ii. Everyone on the old BARC BB did it. Hindsight calls were seen as waffle & pointless. I agreed. Despite sad trolls always being present even back then with their petty digs, they were always a small minority & ii had an “ignore” function which took care of that problem in seconds.
Of course this sector always carries more risk than most due to its exposure to uncontrollable domestic & global macro-factors. Not least because good or acceptable debt can soon become bad debt. Only the naive still fail to appreciate that. So what you’re saying is nothing new. - Edit: typo.
“I would never post any trade like 99% of posters .”
Transparency… You need to see it , obviously you can not just trust what you read on a public chat site .
"I am looking for geniune, honest people, " not being transparent is keeping others in the dark.
“it´s all about mathematical knowledge that will determine success or failure. The probabilty of chance theory is everything”…You could use this dishonestly
I also follow Jack s trades with interest.
He is open and honest, gave good reasons for exiting VOD SB trades, made sense to me.
I do my own thing , as do most I would say.
regardless is mostly an investor, with patience,
He is also open about where he buys in. Also interesting.
I am just a scalping trader, want to be in and out as quick as possible.
I can and am still interested in others trades/investments.
Most of JD s trades are posted live on another board, as are mine.
No abuse, no personal attacks, no spam no trolls.
He has done well with the FTSE 100, as stated.
We all make mistakes at times, part and parcel of trading, as well as investing.
Easy to take pot shots at others when not declaring one s own positions/holdings.
Thanks again. Your comments particularly appreciated as I know you trade full-time on a professional level &, despite your overwhelming success rate for which you deservedly get huge respect from many (me included), you also well recognise that mistimed entries & more serious setbacks are inevitable. Even major funds like Woodford’s with all their research tools are having a bad time of it recently.
It’s no cliche saying this can be a hard game. Historically, despite making new highs last year, FTSE 100 hasn’t done well compared to most global indices. Latterly, even many previously defensive UKX stocks have been hit, with no subsequent rallies consolidated. Former relatively reliable stalwarts that kept within decent SP ranges & paid top yields, are under increasing pressure as values have badly eroded for various reasons. For eg. BT, CNA, ITV, LGEN, OMU, RMG, VOD, to name a few.
One small point: the hit I’ve crystallised was on 5 BARC longs. The hit on VOD still pending. I want to see if latter breaks resistance of 131 before XD on 6th June, mindful it’ll fall back on XD. It’s only about 3.7p after the recent 40% cut, though that’s subject to further slight change depending on exchange rates.
But if VOD’s SP was higher than 131 on 5th June, I’ll delay that action as some stocks recover any divi drop within days. If I think VOD may be above 131+ resistance soon after XD, a rally back to the 140s over summer seems doable, as short lived as that might be. Though I expect to exit VOD at loss at some point for different reasons to BARC, I’m still undecided when exactly. - All the best!
161 not too bad given that you adopt a long time frame.
I think that will come good for you in time.
Big support around 144 ish so there is a floor not far away, might not go there but as you are using real shares you can hold without worry about leverage.
I trade it fairly regularly, mostly to the long ( buy ) side, although admit I did short it when it spiked to about 166/167, out of those now.
Now long on it, in a small loss, not concerned…
Yes you are right trading ( or investing in ) some FTSE 100 stocks has been hard for quite some time.
As is trading the index itself.
Nothing easy about this business.
IMO, whilst “in 12 months” not inconceivable, it’s also far from a sure thing. Obvious provisos about added caution always apply.
Take for example some of those stocks in my post to Soi. RMG was above 630 as recently as May last year. Now struggling to stay above 205. Look at various RMG BBs going back to last year & before. Many comments from investors buying in at quite high levels (though they may not have seemed high at the time), assuming that with online shopping booming & expected to grow every year, one couldn’t go far wrong with RMG. Profits bound to grow every year… they assumed. How very wrong!
I hark back to a point that a VG poster, Magoo, on BARC+ BB made recently & ditto Pref elsewhere on ii: ever since 2008’s financial crisis & the collapse of interest rates, many people have been drawn into stock markets assuming that they could buy stocks that maintain values & collect yield well above IR. It seemed attractive, with little risk. But the reality is that markets are ever vulnerable to a number of variables. When they go well, stocks rally & all seems rosy. When things turn bad, markets can be extremely punishing & some stocks don’t recover to previous highs for years, if ever.
A pro like Soi knows all this very well as he regularly books gains & he never worries about unrealistic goals such as exiting at the tops. - Regards.