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Consequence of share issue

lse:fum

#1

So by my very rudimentary calcs (please feel free to update), the number of shares will increase by approximately a third from this placing.
Obviously we do not have access to the figures that were being discussed with the major pharma companies, but presumably, the potential increased value to fum is greater than the devaluation - i.e, if our royalty increases from 7.5% to ~10%, on (eventually) $1 billion sales, then is this a good thing overall for investors and fum?


#2

I’ve worked it out that the share volume will increase by about 70% after the Primary bid fundraising shares (71,428,572) and the additional open offer shares (14,236,000). We currently have 121,698,000 in issue.

That’s if I’ve got my calculations and numbers right.

I thought after the announcement a while ago they said it would at least increase our worth by about 50% by going through the phase 3 trials. None of us know what numbers they could’ve been talking about though. Futura obviously weren’t happy with any offers they got.


#3

Ah yes, now I’ve got a bit more time, I get similar numbers for new shares being issued (apologies, last mail written in haste). So that’s a much more significant dilution than I first realised…
I see the question being raised on lse regarding timing… and lots of accusations being thrown at jb…
so what position would he have been in…?

I think clearly the larger pharma company didn’t have the risk appetite. Does that suggest they are not that large themselves? Or they do not have the evidence to suggest risk is low. Did they even put an offer on the table? We just don’t know.
I would have thought that those on the negotiation table knew that we didn’t have the funds for phase three - so did they take advantage of that to offer a low offer? As a minimum they would have walked away knowing that fum would need a significant dilution that would hurt the company to proceed by ourselves. That doesn’t exactly leave the two companies on best buddy terms… this ‘50%’ is just a throw away comment that nobody has to stand by.

I still don’t really understand why csd500 hasn’t been snapped up by someone who wants to increase their market footprint and portfolio. My only conclusion here is that it may be seen as a competitor to med2002? I mean what on earth is a small research company doing getting into product development?? Madness.

What I also struggle with is that jb is on a massive salary , so he has incentive to maintain the status quo… he holds shares, but not in my mind to a level that would truly incentivise his commercial decisions…


#4

As you can tell, that was a bit of a brain dump!


#5

So again, a bit of context… for a similar mcap as prior to recent dilution, sp would be about 12-14p (please correct me if wrong).

The one incentive that jb does have however, and it’s a biggy, is that this is probably the last bite of the cherry for fum. He has lots of options infront of him in terms of products, and unless these are now turned into commercial success(es) , then I fear there will be no more fum and all involved will be looking for new jobs.


#6

Sp, currently at 7.68, is holding well after 7p placing. Has been rising in a falling market which I sold to be applauded, don’t you think?
TP


#7

Dont know where “I sold to” came from!
Should read… “which should be applauded”


#8

Yeah it’s all or nothing for fum with MED, if it doesn’t work out, no more futura medical.


#9

With regards to sp rising from 7p, I think given that the mcap has fallen nearly 50% in the last month, then the sp obviously must look attractive to some (myself included!)


#10

royalties will be between 15-25% and dont forget the upfront payments which likely will be in the £50-100M range if not higher thats ~ 4-7 times higher than the entire valuation of FUM . So yes this will be fantastic for investors and the company if everything goes well.