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CSD500 Clarification

lse:fum

#1

I thought I’d clarify some points on CSD500.

The company have not given up on CSD500. They are infact working on some options on CSD500 for sales in non-licensed countries and are working with the existing distributors on a number of launches, however the main focus (quite rightly) is focused upon MED2002.

Some talk of a 2 year lead time is being mentioned. This is if a new distributor wanted to become ISO 13485 compliant which is what would be required if they wanted to handle ALL aspects of CSD500 from a regulatory perspective. (Emphasis on ALL)


#2

I agree FUM will still be doing “some” work on FUM, Aberdeen, but I get the impression they’re not trying too hard. It’s now almost a year since the US and UK became available but no mention of “advanced discussions” or the like.

IMO virtually ALL the energy is being channelled into the MED deal and if it’s not TTT this time I reckon the new partner will take the plunge on successful Phase 3. Let’s hope the new partner is a biggy like Pfizer, the Market will love that and may think MED will actually replace Viagra. Will almost certainly attract significant interest and some big investors.

Back to the topic, CSD. Using a bland calculation that FUM might make 10p royalty per condom, then just to break even 40 million condoms need to be sold a year and given Kabey sold half a million in approx 6 months that would equate to 40 regional partners (although some admittedly will be bigger than Kabey) to achieve break even. Not ideal having such multiple fragmented deals, hence my view that if Durex and Trojan aren’t interested then CSD really isn’t worth the effort.


#3

Tony, it seems strange that a company like FUM cannot work on two or more products simultaneously. There does seem to be only one small team or maybe just one person (JB) who is making all the decisions and doing all the work. Could be a lack of delegation.

CSD is very frustrating from the view of long term holders. It rather makes a mockery of all the promises over the years and possibly makes us re-evaluate our trust in FUM (perhaps that’s why the SP is in the doldrums).

Time for less talk of punchy numbers and more punchy delivery IMO.

Even some revenue from CSD would pay for biscuits and champagne at the board meetings…OK not the wine…I expect they get through a lot of the stuff.


#4

I personally think it’s a good thing if they’re putting all their effort into getting some sort of deal done because at the end of the day we need one.

If they don’t manage to get one now and we go ahead with phase 3 trials, then can only complete part of them before running out of money is a complete disaster for me.

Don’t forget the sausage rolls oil.


#5

Mark, I agree…some of them should probably be on the ‘sausage roll’…for all the good they appear to be doing.


#6

Yes, oil, FUM “should” be able to work on more than one product for sure, but if Product 1 has the earnings potential of £40 million per annum and Product 2 just £2 million, then they would be forgiven for “not really bothering” with Product 2. (figures estimates of course, but IMO the likely “difference”).

It’s just that IMO CSD has immaterial earnings power and won’t make a blind bit of difference to the fortunes of FUM and certainly not enough to ever earn us lot a divi. I also think the Market isn’t pricing CSD into the SP whatsoever and a launch (which would really surprise me) might momentarily cause a spike but would drop down again. The Market did seem to think Trojan could have made a go though, but no real recovery since.


#7

Tony, I agree with you, CSD is ‘almost’ irrelevant. But not so very long ago we had high hopes for it…imagine what we would be thinking if MED hadn’t been discovered to be so interesting…we would probably be in despair that all the hype around CSD has evaporated so quickly. But now we have MED to pin our hopes to.

Not sure if you can compare CSD to MED purely on revenue potential. CSD is ready to sell now but MED wont be on sale for many years (and even longer for OTC). Shouldn’t FUM be building up some knowledge on selling CSD…and every penny counts when we aren’t exactly awash with cash.

The lack of progress with CSD could be due to the lack of interest from potential partners (or even those involved in a TTT). CSD looks like it has been a massive waste of time for everyone concerned.


#8

No other condom-er other than Durex and Trojan has the clout to make CSD a significant seller. The Market agrees ……. they don’t give a stuff about the likes of Kabey, Milsing and F Lima, they’ll earn FUM a pittance in royalties.

So if FUM didn’t have MED and to a lesser extent TPR then we’d be going belly up no matter how great a product we think CSD is. All IMO of course. I certainly wouldn’t hold any FUM shares if we just had CSD (unless a “big player” took on global rights of course, and even then I’d wait for the launch even if it meant paying double the price!).


#9

Tony, ideally CSD would be being sold by a major player in the condom market right now…but it hasn’t worked out. So perhaps CSD never really had that unique selling point that we always thought it did. I don’t like to see FUM give up so easily on CSD…but I guess it isn’t sexy any more. MED is the new kid on the block…let’s hope that FUM have learned some lessons on how to get a product to market.

But I think Mr Barder is expecting those ‘punchy numbers’ to deliver a good deal…but anything short of a full TTT is going to take a long time…unfortunately in FUM time that may mean a very long wait. FUM don’t do anything quick (we can all testify to that)!!


#10

Crunch time, oil. FUM really need to deliver on MED with a “well known” player. A poxy STADA type deal with a minnow regional will go down bad.

Sorry for the recent negative posts, but I’ve lost patience. Why do these things take so long?


#11

Apologies. Have let frustration get the better of me recently, but got to be patient, just like the mighty England tonight!

I suppose the potential partner has to carry out further due diligence on the PK Study results which will be quite a comprehensive document. So I imagine this work would take several weeks to complete.

But we’re getting there ………………………….


#12

We somehow did it in the end even with the worlds worst ref, thought we were in for the usual dissapointment but we pulled through.

I think we just need to be patient now because hopefully some sort of deal can’t be far off. I’m guessing we’ll know better with what the share price does as well.


#13

Evening all

CSD was discussed in some detail at the AGM.

Without being able to say so directly, it was evident that they thought RB signed up with an intention of parking it.

They were genuinely shocked and saddened that C&D returned the rights without alluding to why.

The board agree that the condom has great potential but the major problem is the investment requured to get users to switch from the very few players.

The product had been given out for free in Holland and got great reviews.

The board feel that our remaining money is best spent on progressing MED. They however remain open to new partnerships.

Regarding the slow progress on a MED deal, their response was that “you cannot push these players along. It will happen at their pace.”

We, investors tried to push the board regarding is it a license deal or are there discussions regarding a takeover. They obviously couldn’t answer. But as I mentioned in a previous post, it seemed to slip from a red faced chairman that one party may be Phizer.

I mentioned that I thought that our market cap was shockingly low and that I could not imagine anything but a takeover as a consequence. They agreed about our market cap (i.e. Stock price) but didn’t say more!

Tony, I was impressed with the chairman, the CEO and a director who answered many of the R&D questions. It’s very clear that they’re very clued up on the science end (which is the nuts & bolts). Wasn’t too taken by the new Finance Director. There was also a non exec director who didn’t utter any words.

The lack of news and a long time being invested, means it’s easy to get pessimistic. But rest assured, MED is a very special product and it’s on the ‘finishing straight’, so keep hold of your betting slips!

If I had to second guess when the MED deal might be sewn up (from the tone & responses from the AGM), I would suggest somewhere within the next few months. It would appear to me that the interested party(s) are going through their due diligence.

I personally am not worried that we’ll run out of money (assuming positive 1st part of phase 3 trials) as that successful completion would make us an instant takeover target for multiple players. I personally think that at least one of the big players won’t want to wait till that stage for that same reason.

Reading the above paragraph, you may think “why don’t we wait till successful part 1 to do a deal in order to maximise value?”. The answer is you have to be a seriously calm ‘poker player’ to take this approach. I would suggest the board are very risk averse and hence would not want this approach if possible. (I publicised my aforementioned thoughts to them to ensure they don’t sell MED short. I have a feeling the advisors have probably advised the same).

James Barder looks like he’s been seriously toiling since we last saw his interviews from many months ago. I think there’s been a lot going on behind the scenes.

Keep the faith.


#14

Thanks again, fx2452, much appreciated.

So are FUM “genuinely” waiting on their CSD partners to launch? In other words, should we be expecting an imminent launch(es) from Milsing, RFSU or F Lima? Or even SKORE?


#15

For the avoidance of doubt chaps.

Title: CSD500 and MED2002 negotiations.

Dear Mr Barder,
I was unable to attend the AGM, but heard it was stated that there are no parties who are interested in distributing both of the above products.

(This was reported on ADVFN)

Could you please advise if this is correct please?

JB took < 2 mins to reply:

“That is not correct.”


#16

I find it absolutely amazing that some people attend the AGM and STILL manage to get it wrong!!

Thanks for the clarification Trump and thanks for the further feedback FX.

I can’t remember my exact calculation, but if CSD gets 2.5% of the market we make money (assuming around 10% royalty from memory)

Now I know some of us don’t have the bar set very high when it comes to CSD500, but surely 2.5% is achievable…

FUM have mentioned 10% in the past…