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Dont Cry For Me Georgia

lse:frr

#1

I know it should be Argentina [instead of Georgia] but after reading the Judge’s comments on the fiduciary case, that song just kept coming in to my head.

Anyway a few thoughts [for what they are worth - probably not very much]: Clearly the Judge thinks the case presented by the FRR legal team was weak [I thought it was good].

We knew getting a preliminary injunction would have been difficult as proceedings had already started in the Caymans. Strangely, Judge’s comments have probably provided FRR Legal Team with enough guidance to go back and prepare a much more stronger case. Also, he seemed really upset that FRR did not disclose the Caymans case, although what difference that would have made, I don’t know [as that case was mutually withdrawn without prejudice]. But with hindsight, FRR should have said something on the Caymans as TRO and the preliminary injunction were directly related to actions in Caymans. But this omission definitely crystalized Judges negative thinking towards FRR.

Anyway what I find a little more difficult to understand is that, I thought the onus was on Hope to prove that his actions were ‘equitable’ to all stakeholders, but not this Judge - he apparently wants FRR to prove that Hope actions were not for his own benefit. Seems obvious that any Creditor sitting on the Board has to a act in an fair and independent way, and should recuse himself in discussions where he is conflicted but apparently not with this Judge.

More twists and turns to come me thinks. Yes, the signed submission of Solvency is a big positive, as is BP ramping up activities in Georgia. Coincidence? Perhaps. Pointing to a deal? Very likely.

Stay tuned for the next big turn…


#2

It does appear that the whole process was planned by FRR with some help from BP bigwigs I’m sure. I ‘hope’ they know what they are doing in this process as predicting the legal system is always a risky game. Part of me thinks BP are working with FRR already…cards to be revealed soon but not until legals are finished ? I think FRR will be the winners but I have a worrying thought that shareholders may be the losers in this process…don’t ask me why or how, just a gut feeling.

My case of black swan is in the cellar for now not to be drank until the ‘big reveal’

Atb to all genuine holders and posters here and on lse.


#3

FRR upset the Judge by non disclosure and present a weak case.
This is bang in line with everything that ZaZa and Sn have ever done with FRR.
I admire your tenacity Symore and I admire your gut’s optimism Drshobby but I fear it is time to wake up and smell the coffee. FRR is and always has been a really badly run company and now they are making a mess of the legal battle. Write it off - you can only be pleasantly surprised once you have done that.


#4

One would like to think the legal team are “conducting the legal battle” ?
And we are all second guessing what is being said behind closed doors … time will tell.
“Writing it off” is negative so I’ll wait till the fat lady stops singing … if that’s ok


#5

OK by me too!


#6

Cheer up Kalan, since Steve has filed the solvency declaration I’m confident FRR will continue on their epic journey. If nothing comes up on the Cayman court system regarding the liquidation within the next 14 days I think things are looking very good.

I strongly suspect BP are pulling the strings in the background and that the recent BP activity in Georgia regarding the hiring of contractors is, I’m sure related to a new gas drill at B12.

As ever time will tell but I now expect to get my investment back and perhaps some more.


#7

I kind of agree with Kalan. FRR have made a mess of this whole situation. One would have thought that their silence would have produced a knockout punch, but it is the reverse I’m afraid. The judge has delivered the knock out punch to FRRs poor management and rubbish lawyers (who said that they had hired one of California’s top lawyers ?). Zaza and SN have treated the shareholders very badly and even Mole has disappeared off the planet - Did he know ?

When I eventually get my certificates then I will put them in an old suitcase I have with all the other rubbish I have collected over the years.


#8

They got Hope off the board!

Mission accomplished in my view

It takes all sorts to make a company or what does a company maker look like?

Wait a couple weeks and we will see


#9

Am back in Spain with time to muse.

Well either these guys have completely screwed up, or they decided last year that they were simply not going to allow an opportunist (and self confessed vulture) to grab more of the spoils than he was legally entitled to. The binary nature of our investment is entwined with the equally binary outcome of their actions.

That FRR was virtually insolvent operationally through most of 2016/17/18 is clear to all. Equally clear is that undisclosed vendors supported the company throughout this period without any form of security in place - to the tune of well over $20 million. And the available share headroom of 1.5 billion shares that was intended to provide at least part of that security still to this day appears to have been unused.

So despite these significant vendor debts the only people trying to force a case of insolvency are the buyers of distressed loan notes back in 2012/13 - secured for less than $5 million and almost certainly secured without consultation with or agreement from FRR.

At this point in time the binary interpretations are therefore pretty clear to me.

Either FRR has embarked on a last gasp ego driven and reckless course of action to retain ownership of an insolvent and debt ridden business. A course of action that we now know will almost certainly result in criminal proceedings should insolvency be proven over the next 12 months. This is of course possible - but in my experience such delusions and risks usually catch up with people long before the stage we have now reached.

Or FRR decided last year that - whilst they were operationally weak but increasingly asset rich - they were simply not going to allow an opportunist interloper to a) continue to veto strategic financing decisions, and b) to potentially acquire a significant holding in the company based on entirely negative behaviours. Hence the decisions to go down this necessary but hugely risky route.

If you believe the second option (which I do - albeit with great trepidation) you cannot adopt this route unless a) the other vendors back your approach at least in principle, and b) you have great belief that the asset both exists and can be monetised in the near future. So my interpretation is that there were actually only two real objectives here.

One - to get rid of Hope as a director, to allow the board to then make strategic decisions without fear of veto, and by any trick possible to prevent him securing any equity base whatsoever in the company.

Two - to buy the time that would allow another option to be adopted. And if this meant using every legal twist and tactic possible then so be it. Namely in some way create the time line that would allow the asset to be monetised.

This of course remains a very risky binary bet. But personally I will judge the competence of directors at the very end of the process - and not before. As I have said before this still could be the binary bet of recent times - but in this case the croupier has already long said “no more bets please”.

And one final point. All the way through the email trail revealed through the court papers there was only one reference that I can recall to BP. I can’t recall even one for BH. Yet these two great companies had long been working with FRR, had signed NDAs and as we know had operatives on the ground alongside FRR employees over extended time periods. Hope was informed of none of this until September last year. Which means that FRR were running two sets of dialogues. One that Hope was aware but not referring to the third party involvement in any way. And another set that nether we and nor Hope have seen - that would have covered in great detail the relationship with the third parties.

End game fast approaching in my view


#10

A cracking summary of recent events Devex

The next act is the one where the black swan enters stage left with all the cygnets and everyone is smiling
The fat lady is gargling prior to the performance
She will fill the finale

Cue, standing ovation from the assembled FRR audience and the falling curtain will be the Georgian flag :georgia:

:+1:


#11

I’m wondering if SN is the ultimate magician i.e. the art of mis-direction we’re all looking at Caymen and Cali while the real action is actually going on in Georgia.

Option C “Look at us fighting over a measly £30m we never lose in Court”

Option G monitise 200Tcf of gas.


#12

In other words, we’re screwed.


#13

JT … Hard words but lets just wait and see!


#14

Cheer yourself up man.

Did you read regdik’s post over on the LSE? He suspects that a gas drill has already been drilled by Baker Hughes and that a potential mega deal could be in play. Have a think about all the hints YJ dropped, “work still ongoing at the coal face” in other words it was operations as normal while the court case played out.

No add in to the mx that BP are now planning to mobilize a forward support team to support remote operations. Reg is bang on, current oil revs will not be able to pay off Hope’s 22m+

The solvency declaration has to be based on a loan and/or major farm in/out or even a buy out.

As Devex states, the end game is fast approaching.


#15

Agree with Regdik especially when YA final payment of 2m+ due next month I believe. Must say I feel more confident than any time since Christmas. Funny how one sentence re DOS can change sentiment.


#16

He’s a top fella that ‘regdik’. His ‘wink, wink’ post on BP-FRR connection certainly helped lift my spirit.


#17

Lots of positivity here of late.
But none of us actually know what the state of play in country really is
I have always maintained a view, since we heard of the court proceedings and Zaza’s Comments
The dog catching the cart
Don’t sell a single share
That BP and BHGE were to be our saviours in something akin to a black swan event
SB has suggested a buy out may be end game
Devex suggests that the end game is fast approaching
Thefozzer is back in the glass half full mode and includes farm in/out and buyout in his potential scenarios
What is it to be though
A loan getting us time to pay off OMF and continue 50/50 with BHGE to exploit the resource
A farm in or out involving BHGE and BP
Or a buy out
I think we have been told it’s about part of the asset going to a GOM, I expect this to be MK gas via a new or modified reentry into UD2
Plus 50/50 with BHGE to prove Taribani and the other main oil plays
Indeed I am willing to bet (though the current delist prevents me) that more than just Taribani will have seen some activity during this enforced shutdown in comms
I expect us to do a deal that gets gas and oil proven in the Georgian timeframe and gives BP options to buy us on the back of those results at the end of that process
All to play for


#18

B-2-0 post on LSE.
To survive an attack from a formidable enemy who has infiltrated your ranks extreme tactics are required to survive and conquer. Fortunately the enemy and motive were identified early, and a strategy implemented with a number of escape options possible. This has been the key to winning the war, casualties are inevitable, but that is the price to pay. Hope took the bait and resigned, providing the preferred escape route, leave the vulture to look for his next victim. It’s game over for Hope, FRR flock are going airborne. It’s not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning. Who dares wins B20


#19

Hi Fillpot - I’m not sure if a buyout will be the end game as FRR seems to be pretty active on the exploration front, re: Moldova and Ukraine (tendering deadline for the offshore Dolphin Shelf is the 12th June). But given the size of FRR’s ambitions and the size of their wallets, it does make you wonder if there is someone big standing behind them.


#20

Regdik post on LSE on Sunday.

46Can FRR turn around their production and sell enough to pay their loan, staff and other services in less that a year (remembering they have to wait for 45/60 days for payment). Back of a fag packet FRR will require a steady production of 4000BPD to achieve this figure taking into account that they are in a profit share deal with BH (runs only till September) and potentially another waiting in the wing with 150M.
I doubt we are currently producing 500bpd so they will have to be a significant ramp up as well have to be drilled, tested and brought into a production state. Another 10 to 15 wells at a minimum to get anywhere near the $65/70M of turnover they would need to generate.
This is NOT POSSIBLE to achieve
So I assume the following must be in play other wise ZaZa and SN will be doing some hard prison time.
I suspect that BH (supported by BP) have been drilling a new gas well/s since the start of the year to see if production will meet expectations and undertake a flow/quality and testing for flow drop off.
This required time and keeping Hope at bay until results could be proved. That seems to be done.
For two wealthy men (even without FRR shares) to risk a criminal record (and possibly prison) they must have been sure that they could and would meet the revenues required not by production but either a buy in or a sale of the gas to a major.
All we need to see now is evidence of a major tooling up in the region …