It was a good decision, I can’t see VOD regaining levels like that for over a year at least - and then only if things go well - and frankly there isn’t much sign of that anywhere in the mobile business. There is the small chance of them being bought out for a premium - especially if they keep falling as they are right now - as is the GBP they are priced in.
There has to be some consolidation but not all regulators will allow it. VOD were knocked back from consolidating in a small market like New Zealand a year or so ago. No surprise to see them sell off the business (announced yesterday) although continuing to support the buyers , they’re no longer prepared to try and introduce new and improved services which is proving so costly. And really, no sign of those costs stopping. After 5G what then? 6G, you can bet on it. And how much did 4G cost and who saw that much improvement?
Mobile has to be bundled with other types of communication like TV and entertainments to squeeze out a reasonable return on the large up-front and on-going costs, which is what VOD were stopped from doing by the NZ regulator. No doubt other regulators around the world will be seeing this as the warning shot across their bows I believe it is.
Market bouncing back because a lot of the UK-listed companies aren’t impacted at all by the China/USA debacle. In fact, some may well benefit from it.
These things are hard to unravel though where global supply chains are involved, so I would expect the markets to remain jittery for a while. China’s ‘retaliation’ has been laughably weak - that makes me wonder if they might no target specific US companies also. Face and all that. That could get nasty.
Ironically, one of my currently failing small cap investments would benefit greatly from China limiting exports of rare earths as they did in 2011 sending prices soaring. I held onto the stock largely because of the chance of that happening after Trump’s election. Its done very badly since for unforeseen reasons, but such a move from China would send it soaring.
Probably isn’t likely … first, WTO sorted out the original dispute and China would have to go back on that agreement, secondly, China withholding rare earths would mean a lot of green technology the world is relying on having to be re-designed and manufacture more expensive short term. Wouldn’t win them a lot of friends.