Double Top



I am getting a couple of nice dividends next week from Lloyds and Standard life better than any interest rate on offer from any reputable institutions

But I overall agree I’d also Love to go back to 25 years get that 5 % interest rate we got with Bank Saving accounts


Hi Again @eadwig, Bad day for some big names in the US today. BIDU (really a chinese company ?) down 16.x% ! a trade war casualty I guess ?. TSLA down a mere 7.5% and the article below I found while searching for the reason for the fall pretty much supports my previous negative view:-

Though I fully realise that some press articles are pitched to achieve dramatic effect !. I guess Donald might think it was all fake news !.

Anyway just a few examples of the extreme volatility of these growth stocks, which I really hate. I guess a trader might well revel in the possibilities – but it’s not for me. But I know it won’t change your views.

UKW at 133 (with no stamp duty or commission, 5.2% yield RPI linked) looking better every minute to me……Bit worried about the premium to NAV but then nothing is risk free is it ?.




Hi @regardless, Sadly the days of savings accounts with meaningful rates is gone forever I think, you can get 2-3% on some current accounts (eg TSB - but would you really bank with them after what happened to their customers a while back ?) or if you are prepared to tie your money up for a long period. 5% forget it. Well not unless you want to buy some bonds with no FSCS protection where you probably won’t get your money back at all…

So no the stock market is the only way to get a return on your capital I think (well unless you want to do buy to let - but that’s no easy ride).

Up until about 18 months ago I still had some 5 year ISAs paying me 5%+, those were the days…!




Well, as I said, even TSLA was too extreme for me. It is a remarkable company with remarkable products, including the means to manufacture the cheapest way to store electricity only generated by renewables when the wind is blowing or the sun in shining. .

Cracking that one, and they only have to knock their storage down from $125 to $100 per KwH experts reckon, and the whole world changes when it comes to energy. Including the oilers.

Its such a big potential part of the future that I’d want to have a little bit of the pie of whoever cracks it, especially as it is likely to wipe out many other industries , or sectors of industries, some of which I am bound to be invested in.


I have SLA shares, but the dividend isn’t going to make up for the capital value lost over the last year or two. Even though they didn’t cost me anything, its still a blow to see them come down so much.

I also have a stake in LLOY through the share of the stocks I’ve inherited. Not one I would have chosen to be stuck with as the UK tries to withdraw into itself and LLOY becomes just a regional bank. Still, it may finally sort itself out and pay a decent yield, some regional banks do and have avoided crises, even. Not sure LLOY has the crisis-avoiding culture though, even now.

Doesn’t it own TSB as well these days? A challenger bank that should be massively ahead of the rest but can’t seem to make headway. Metro bank looks like a bad indicator for the UK banking sector too.

Just thought I’d spread some gloom about for the weekend!


My daughter is getting 3.5% on her Nationwide Junior ISA. That does mean putting in cash that she wont see until she’s 18 … 13 years from now. Never quite feel comfortable with that.


Hi @eadwig, Guess I am surprised that you arent investing your daughters money for her rather than having it in cash savings form ?. But I note that most parents (including my grown up kids) have their kids money in these sort of savings accounts as its risk free and it does grow (if being eroded by inflation). However they do that as they are risk averse, know nothing about the stock market and because its easy I think (it doesnt require spending any time managing it that way).

Surely you could be improving on 3.5% though, you said 8% was low to me the other day…



PS Obviously TSB used to be Lloyds TSB, but I remember it being sold at one point. Looks like the spanish bank Sabadell owns it now - according to google !.


When I have it built up to a reasonable level to be able to diversify investments then I plan to transfer it onto a platform where I can make investments. (you can’t touch a JISA, so I can’t add it in to my portfolio then pay out for her at the end of each year; it has to be separate).

Also, the bulk of what will be her savings is still awaiting my father’s executors to pay it over. That is going to be at least another 18 months I think. At least. No move whatsoever has been made towards selling the house. Its pretty pathetic to be honest, but what can I do? My dad removed me as an executor because I would be living abroad. Truth is, I have done more than anyone to move things on in the shorter space of time I’ve been in the UK.

She also has about the same level of savings in Polish Zloty from the other side of the family and over which I have no direct control. That was earning 3.1% last I checked.

Its also about timing this market cycle. If we have an obvious crash, far from impossible, then after that would be the time to move the cash over. I have a dread of moving her savings too early and then seeing 20-40% knocked off in a big market correction. At least I have it somewhere that is beating inflation for now.

I didn’t say 8% was low, in fact I said it was fine for preserving your capital. Above inflation and a very reasonable 5% return on top.

Even 8% on my daughter’s savings compounded over the next 13 years wont allow her to pay for college in the UK(which is a sort of notional goal I have). However, if I can time moving the cash over right and get some very large returns for her over a strong bull period that could make all the difference. She’s 5 1/2 now though, so time is ticking away.


Hi Again @eadwig, Well I took a look at battery storage (including the Tesla Powerwall) when I was looking around at solar PV solutions. Quickly rejected any immediate thoughts of including battery storage as:-

a) its really expensive (especially the Tesla Powerwall which could cost you as much or more than the rest of your whole solar panel installation put together). Sort of ~£7,000 ish for a Powerwall.
b) it only saves you money on your night time use. Which is pretty low in my case.
c) there is no guarantee that they will last more than 10 years after which you would need to shell out again. Er that’s £700 pa just for the battery !.
d) better and cheaper battery solutions will come with all of the work on electric cars I’m sure.

I got my panels installed in January just in time to get on board with the feed in tariff scheme which pays about 6.5p for everything we generate (even if you use it yourself ). Payments are guaranteed for 25 years and rise annually with RPI.

Will it repay my investment ?. Well estimated payback time is 9 years, but that’s without electricity costs increasing (which I think they will) and doesn’t take account of the RPI increases in the FIT payments. So just might improve on that.

So far we’ve been very happy with the system. On a sunny day virtually ALL of our electricity usage is provided by the panels from about an hour after sunrise to about the same before sunset. Obviously you get nothing much on a cloudy or wet day. Our actual total electricity usage has about halved, so our bills will be lower and we are feeling a bit virtuous due to the green effect !.




Hi Cheerful Eadwig :wink:

TSB sold off a few years ago

Metro Bank had big accounting issues and was reporting Business Loans incorrectly on the Balance sheet Its tough task taking on the Big Four with UK Banking Sector as a whole and does show the strength of the Big Four compared new Starts / Challenger Banks

IMHO challenger Banks need Billions of pounds just to ride on (one’s) coattails the Likes of big guns Lloyds Banking Group :slight_smile:


The point is, by the time the dogs in the street, understand TSLA has such a competitive advantage, it’s too late to make extraordinary returns.

People hide behind fundamentals, thinking they offer a margin of safety. Then when the stock underperforms for years, they talk about “long term investment”


Yeah, I know LLoyds bought it - but is it still being run as a brand and a separate bank? The main reason I included it in my comment was that someone on the BBC actually named it as though it were an ongoing concern just a couple of days ago.

TSB was my first bank and they were awful. First year as a student I ran out of cash and they wouldn’t give me an overdraft, just a credit card with £750 limit (more than one term’s full grant cheque) , in the full knowledge that I couldn’t pay off the balance every month. Also I HAD to pay a monthly fee on the card for insurance in case I lost the card and someone else used it, if I didn’t agree to that I couldn’t have the card. (I’m sure you are all aware that I was already fully covered already by the 1984 consumer credit act).

I wish PPI claims went back as far as that (1987). What bastards they were deliberately steering a naive student into deep credit card debt at 29.9% interest - and no wonder the banks ended up owing so much under PPI. I still can’t understand how no one ended up in prison.



Big generators all use TSLA battery units for their storage, all the ones I have looked at anyway, including NG and a company in California who were forced by a judge to include battery storage on the network after a gas pipe blowout caused power cuts. They seem to be the only one that can quickly provide MwH of storage capacity.

To get down to the $125 KwH cost TSLA have built what they call mega-factories, and they really are stupendously huge. They’re teamed up with Panasonic on this , by the way, which I have often thought of buying into because of the lead they have in Lithium-Ion batteries along with TSLA. (Can’t buy ADRs on ii anymore though, and Japanese market isn’t open to ii customers either).

They have gone for economies of scale, on top of every innovation known to get the cost down to that level, I doubt very much anyone will beat them in that technology. It is one of the dozens of new technologies that will make the breakthrough - although no one seems to be crowing just yet - or TSLA will do it through some new innovation to existing technology, although scientists think there is pretty much no more efficiencies to be had out of Lithium-Ion at this point - hence TSLA going for economies of scale on a scale that almost no other company can hope to match.

Did you buy TSLA solar panels? I believe they’re the biggest provider in USA. They’re not just E.V. cars, although they are well ahead in that field too, with their own infrastructure rather than waiting for governments to place it in for them.

That’s what I like about Elon Musk. That sort of get-on-with-it action … and he sends rockets to the moon also. If there is another Steve Jobs in USA right now, it is Musk IMO, and I backed TSLA originally based on that alone. Not a very sound investment strategy, granted, but sometimes you go with your gut on these things. It worked with FB, after having hated them as an organisation for many years before I saw their strength of management and bought in purely on that.


Hi @eadwig, no I didn’t buy TSLA panels. Interestingly though I talked with a great many Solar PV providers these were never presented as an option. Didn’t I read somewhere that Tesla have some tie up with Panasonic for solar panels ?. Panasonic panels are very good and I almost went with them. In the end I bought SunPower, the most expensive but the best I think (and so do most market reviews). Best warranty and long term performance guarantees anyway.

I like a lot of what Elon Musk is about in terms of his work on renewables, batteries and EVs, not sure about the man himself though. Perhaps you have to be the way he is if you are a genius ?. Don’t know.

As for TSLA well, some part of me hopes it does well. But my investment head tells me to stay well clear.




Hi @devonplay, Was reviewing my portfolio yesterday after a pretty good week following the trade initiated dip. Anyway my eye fell on IUKD which has now just dipped below 5% loss in total return terms and I have decided I am going to sell it on Monday.

The IUKD strategy of buying the top 50 yielding stocks in the FTSE350 sounded like a good idea and for a while it performed OK, but looking at its holdings now its top holding is SLA, and others include VOD, CNA, SSE, UU, NG and RMG. All stocks that quite frankly I’d rather not be invested in ATM.

Haven’t finally decided on where to out the money as yet but am looking at the likes of IDVY, GBDV or perhaps an investment trust (MRCH ?). I’d be interested in a REIT if I could find one at a good price. Still looking round.




You might find this interesting background reading.


I didn’t even know they did them, to be honest. It would be strange if they didn’t have a relationship given the battery storage partnership. Tesla solar panels aren’t called Tesla, they have another name which I forget at the moment. You may have considered them without knowing.

You have to be driven and not care if you end up with a few million or multi billions, it seems. I’d make a couple of million then stop bothering if it were me, sell to the highest bidder.

Unless I really thought I was trying to achieve something more than money and it was within my grasp (FB’s Zuckerburg is like that). Not sure what drives Musk, but there’s no doubt he makes things happen where us mere mortals would fail - and I think the world might need a few people like that to break through entrenched interests, especially surrounding energy, the key to all civilisation.


Hi @macbonzo, “extraordinary returns” !. Tesla Jan 1st 2019 ~$310, today just dropped below $200. Thats a ~33% loss…

As Ive said before these US growth stocks are just scary and can have a devastating effect on your portfolio if things dont go your way.




Absolutely true, however, as you know, fundamentals are no guarantee of anything either.

Do you want to go head to head, as to who can make the best returns till the end of the year? Trading is not risky unless you have no TP and don’t use stops. 80% fail at it because:

They are overleveraged (Plus 500 shouldn’t be in business)

Undercapitalised. I hate trading a small account

Don’t use Stops

Trade off news feeds

Know a mate that has made money somewhere

Have no trading journal

Don’t appreciate the psychological demands of trading.



This is the bit I’d forgotten…

“The divestment of TSB from Lloyds Banking Group was necessary due to a European Commission ruling that the British government’s purchase of a 43.4% stake in the group in 2009 counted as state aid”

So they are actually separate entities now.

Still, the point I think I remember making stands, which was that the challenger banks, of which I assume TSB is the biggest, are not really making headway on the big 4 (or whatever it is these days).

You can add to that that the big 4 aren’t really making headway either - except HSBC, which seem to be the only truly international retail and investment bank we have left in the UK.

Its pretty sad because the UK put so many eggs in the finance sector basket. I know its bigger than just retail and investment banking, but our banks are way behind the USA, Australia and China now when it comes to world giants with only HSBC able to compete on the same sort of level.