Dr m discussion board


@mememe, two things in particular have put me off this share, (1) it is still forecast to be loss making in 2021 and (2) there have been lots of director selling in recent months and no buying. Also it doesn’t pay a dividend as it is yet to make a profit. On the plus side it does appear to have plenty of cash and obvious momentum with the share price.

Amazon may have a high forward PE of 60 but it is making a profit which is expected to continue to increase. I am feeling fairly risk averse at the moment and so it doesn’t seem a particularly good entry time for Okta for me, if I currently had a position I would be happy to continue to hold. In case it is of interest, the Stockopedia ranks for Okta are quality 82, value 5, momentum 85 and the overall stock rank is 56. The corresponding figures for Amazon are quality 99, value 17, momentum 95 and overall stock rank is 81.


@share_123_maiden, that maybe true about directors selling Okta but big institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley increased their holdings the latter by 124% according to 13F filings of 31/3/19. Not many US stocks (at least the ones I hold) pay dividends but that’s not what I look for. I’ve top-sliced as it can all come tumbling down -Amazon dropped to $1343 last Dec.


A good day. Restore, ZOO, Tremor, EKT (Dr M must be a happy bunny) all good risers.


@Lorinnae, SPWR up 10% today


Well done you - now up much more - my “watching” was obviously wrong and how! Lorinnae


@Lorinnae, thanks. Up 30% today after it posts surprise Q2 profit. TTD doing well too. FIVN (up 20% today), Okta, RingCentral, Lattice Semiconductor all risen nicely over the last few days.

They keep talking about a world recession so how long before it all plummets?


Not long judging by the sea of red over the markets yesterday :open_mouth:


@share_123_maiden, I think that was more to do with Trump’s tariffs on China. Tomorrow he’ll change his mind again. Very sad about the two mass shootings in 24 hrs what’s he going to do to stop this craziness?


@mememe, my comment was tongue in cheek, although the risk of recession is increasing with Trump’s tariffs. It will be interesting to see how long it will take for Americans to realise that these tariffs are hurting them more than the Chinese as it is American companies that will effectively be paying the tariffs.

Unfortunately Trump’s comments fuel the fires of anger and discontent, although he does not seem to accept any responsibility. His links with NRA members mean that he will not do anything to stop the craziness, although it is difficult to know wether anyone else will do any better, as anytime comments are made about more gun control seems to result in people rushing out to buy more weapons. Here are some fairly scary details about gun ownership in the USA from Wikipedia:
“Americans made up 4 percent of the world’s population but owned about 46 percent of the entire global stock of 857 million civilian firearms.”[5] U.S civilians own 393 million guns. That is 3 times as many guns as the armed forces of the Russian Federation (30.3 million), China (27.5 million), North Korea (8.4 million), Ukraine (6.6 million), United States (4.5 million), India (3.9 million), Vietnam (3.8 million), Iran (3.3 million), South Korea (2.7 million), Pakistan (2.3 million), and all the other countries (39.7 million) combined.[6] American civilians own more guns “than those held by civilians in the other top 25 countries combined.”[7]

“American civilians own nearly 100 times as many firearms as the U.S. military and nearly 400 times as many as law enforcement.”[8] Americans bought more than 2 million guns in May 2018, alone.[8] That is more than twice as many guns, as possessed by every law enforcement agency in the United States put together.[8] In April and May 2018, U.S. civilians bought 4.7 million guns, which is more than all the firearms stockpiled by the United States military.[8] In 2017, Americans bought 25.2 million guns, which is 2.5 million more guns than possessed by every law enforcement agency in the world put together.[8] Between 2012 and 2017, U.S. civilians bought 135 million guns, 2 million more guns than the combined stockpile of all the world’s armed forces.[8]"

Rather glad I live in the UK on that basis.


@share_123_maiden, the Americans have already told Trump that they are suffering more than the Chinese but will he listen - not likely.
One minute Bloomberg says there will be a recession the next minute they change their minds. Of course it will come at some point but when?
More worrying is how people who can least afford to will suffer in the UK with a No Deal Brexit.


@mememe you said “They keep talking about a world recession so how long before it all plummets?”

This extract from a Moneyweek email is of interest.

"I suspect we’ll see more aggressive action by the Fed at the next meeting, because for a moment there, Jerome Powell looked as though he could breathe a sigh of relief. Prior to the meeting, the yield curve had been looking healthier than it had for months.

(A quick reminder of what the yield curve is – it’s the difference (“spread”) between what it costs the US government to borrow money over ten years and what it costs over two years. You can use other borrowing periods, and many do, but this is arguably the most important one. Once this number turns negative, the yield curve has inverted, which almost always signals a recession, although perhaps not for up to two years.)

The curve between the three-month and the ten-year had even “un-inverted” the last time we looked at it, in the third week of July.

Unfortunately, that all changed after the Fed. The three-month curve is inverted again, and now as the chart below shows, the gap between the two-year and ten-year (which hasn’t yet gone negative in this cycle) is looking decidedly queasy. If that doesn’t turn up soon, it’s as good a confirmation of pending recession as we’re likely to get, I think.

(The gap between the yield on the ten-year US Treasury and that on the two-year, going back three months)"

Unfortunately the graph didn’t copy for some reason, but I’ve added it below. My holdings were definitely down this week, certainly not helped by the BUR shorting attack. This time of year it is difficult to assess sentiment as so many people are away on holidays, hence the saying “sell in May and go away, come on back on St Leger’s day”.



@share_123_maiden, thanks. Luckily I got rid of most of BUR for CGT reasons at the end of last tax year. I still hold some in an ISA. Managed to get some on Wednesday at around 3.15pm when they dipped to just below 400 - finally got some at 462. MW have been wrong before eg IQE. I hope they get sued though a private company so not sure if possible.
‘MW closed their shorts having borrowed and sold BUR shares around 1100/1200p
Then bought them back the day of the crash around 400/500p to return the borrowed shares having made around 100%’.

Another consecutive economic decline and the UK is officially in a recession.


@mememe, well done with your trades there. Just seen that Gotham City are purported to be issuing a shorting dossier on Burford this weekend, so not sure what will happen to the share price on Monday if that is true.


@share_123_maiden, more likely well done you for not buying. I saw the article via a link on the LSE discussion board. But what more can they offer than that reported by MW?


@mememe, Not sure, but it may spark more panic selling on the principle of no smoke without fire.


@share_123_maiden, probably will but I didn’t panic last week and it’s recovered considerably.
If Gotham had something substantial a year ago why didn’t they say something?


I do not look in here that often recently.
Did not realize b u r was one you discussed.
Well done for the top up at bottom.
Much better then my two top ups postead live on b u r board.
Any news on Dr M ?


Motley fool ramping this lately.


@Ripley94 and I still hold. I topped up my holding with the over subscribed Open Offer in June and was a little surprised that the share price didn’t seem to retrace at all immediately after that. It has retraced a bit in the current market turbulence but I have no intention of selling, but you should bear in mind I am a long term buy and hold person as a general rule and not a trader.