Went below last months 76.5p today .
Back in today @ 76p limit lifted ( D )
Messing moving out from ( B ) will be spare funds during procedure .
Topped again today @68p
That was a good buy up 100% today.
Resistaonce came at 143p.
Maybe after profit taking might hit 150 ( G )
Closed well back at 114 p … This is Aim.
One of biggest mistakes I made was selling at 90p but I did make some profit
When did you do that jaytee ?
AIM is all a gamble .
How long were you in ?
A while back when it was stable and not doing anything. Needed funds for something else but whatever, AIM certainly is a gamble
Just noticed share prophets blogged a buy on Saturday if i had seen that i would of sold this morning. Maybe a reason a to superscribe to it lol
Up 10% today reaching a high of 132p … will it break the 143p of last Monday .
Mondays are good SAVP up 50% this one
Been trying to slice @ 160p .
( G ) said might hit 150p on 12th August i note .
Up’d my limit to 161p and just got mail it lifted @ 163p.
Want some funds so that’s ok .
Lucky yesterday big gap down this morning Friday … did not see the drop to 135p until 8.15am .
posters on lse claiming you could not buy untill it got back to 150p others saying its not a fair playing field !!!
boblondon made below remark . at 7.50am ( before open )
so they have an opening price of 135p on LSE on political news that was already in the public space haha pull the other one market makers
TSX is highly illquid how can they gap this down 20-30% on such insignificant volume on TSX and news
Huge buying op
Looks like to busy to post i took another slice yesterday morning set limit @ 164p lifted early @ 166p lifted higher last slice as well i recall must be a good sign .
Have not looked at Malcy for some time noticed this from 11 days back .
Bucket list 6 month update.
Posted on 30 August 2019 Posted in The Bucket List — No Comments ↓
WTI $56.71 +93c, Brent $61.08 +59c, Diff -$4.37 -34c, NG $2.30
August 2019 Bucket List update
Once again, the bucket list performance has been incredibly volatile, crude oil was $78 a year ago and $65 when I updated in February, today it is $61, a level one might have thought would be more than comfortable for the industry.
Those familiar with the list will be aware that it is meant to serve as a model fund which gives exposure to risk across the sector, originally thought up by leading (non-energy) Fund Manager Adrian Collins to gain exposure to the sector at a time of $30 oil when exposure to individual stocks might have been a recipe for disaster. Nowadays I get the impression that readers tend to use the list as a guide to risk and timing, the ideas are for the long term although it is always wise to keep on top of any portfolio. Here is the interim ‘league table’ which is pretty indifferent right now but is a reasonable snapshot of how the sector is seeing a disappointing push-back and lack of interest from investors. Prices are from today and compared to end of February.
Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas + 209.5%
Reabold Resources +91%
Far Limited +11%
Amerisur Resources +8.3%
Hurricane Energy +2.8%
Savannah Petroleum -3.3%
Serica Energy -4.3%
Genel Energy -8.4%
Jersey oil & Gas -12.6%
Trinity Exploration & Production -16.9%
Victoria Oil & Gas -23%
President Energy -34%
Echo Energy -40%
SDX Energy -46%
Sound Energy -62%
So, as usual comments on the list going forward and, on the performances above. Starting at the top Eco Atlantic has been the poster boy for some time now, it went in the list at 20p not long after I had met the company and realised what a potential goldmine it might be. A year ago it was 34.5p giving a return since then of 449% or 775% from 20p and having succeeded at Jethro is now drilling Joe, whatever happens here I would hang on in there. Reabold has also justified early entry as this is another company with good management and a solid defined model. Success in California and more recently at Parta and West Newton have paid off for patient investors. Those followers of Far Limited, quoted on the ASX have seen the company recover well from the disappointment of the well in The Gambia. With a lot of news imminent I remain a firm supporter of Far who have a fantastic team and a really exciting, broad portfolio. With Senegal coming up to critical development stage, which Far are confident of financing, they are set to be a sizeable company in a very hot area of town, in addition they are going back to The Gambia to drill in 2020 and CNOOC has recently farmed into Guinea Bissau where they will also drill with Far next year. Arbitration news should be out by the end of the year as well.
Things have just started to move for Amerisur where a cheeky bid by Maurel & prom at 17p seems to seriously undervalue the company. But it has shaken things up to the extent that a full review of its options is taking place. AMER has the huge value of CPO-5 with ONGC, a partnership with Occidental, the Putumayo and of course the OBA pipeline where 3rd party oil is now profitably flowing so has may options rather than just a one-off sale which would be disappointing. Hurricane Energy might be a lot higher by now as the EPS at Lancaster is spewing oil but the company is remaining cautious and not getting over excited until 6-12 months of stable production data is forthcoming. The shares stalled when the Warwick Deep well was dry but at the Capital Markets Day recently a good deal more optimism was showed. Sorting these points and hope for the Lincoln well will shape HUR going forward and my valuation remains a good deal higher than the current price.
Savannah Petroleum has recently announced Ministerial approval for the Seven Energy deal which I hope will mean a swift revival for the company in Nigeria as well as picking up from its highly successful programme in Niger. The market has been getting increasingly nervous about this deal and now it looks like getting over the line the recent rally should be extended. Serica was added last change and it has performed very creditably although I’m sure the management team, like many others feel that they have done enough to be higher up the list. I remain 100% confident in the management here and it is in a very strong position on a production basis with plenty of upside going forward.
Genel Energy is a stock that should be a great deal higher, with its massive cash flows enabling ongoing capex in organic development and competing for assets in the market as well as now paying a dividend and buying back stock in the market sometimes I wonder about what companies have to do to get institutions to participate. Genel is a high margin, large producer and extremely well managed and has significant upside, what’s not to like?
As for Rockhopper the market really is playing a game of brinkmanship, with the PIM now in and almost all the necessary paperwork with contractors and so on completed, sanction and then FID for Sea Lion should be not far away….RKH has been in the list from the start, patience sure is a virtue. Jersey Oil & Gas has had a bit of a roller coaster ride, in to begin with for the Verbier exploration well which got over the line after a false start, back in January it stayed in ahead of the appraisal of that discovery. Who was to know that it wouldn’t work but since that disappointment the company has bounced back with some fantastic acreage awards and will probably make the Greater Buchan area a highly successful hub.
I am seriously optimistic for Trinity Exploration as it looks in great shape as they approach the important second half for drilling in Trinidad. The onshore drilling programme returns and the company will be drilling its first HAW well which should change things big time for Trinity. With an exciting programme in the short, medium and long term, strong finances after years of diligent cost cutting, arguably the best management around, the stable, growing production and high impact upside should warrant good returns for shareholders.
Whether to keep VOG or not in the list was a close call, after a difficult 18 months the market now needs to see the company deliver after the recent financing and management changes. But for now I am going to continue to give the benefit of the doubt for which I am sure I will get some stick. They are getting paid; they are showing signs of growing the business and are less reliant on that big contract…
President Energy has been doing all the right things but with no following wind, I have great sympathy with the management team who have operationally delivered in spades but with no reward. The Argentine link has been hanging over it but recent polls ahead of the Presidential election have upped the beta and forced the company to take a rain check on oil and concentrate on its gas assets for the time being. As a result, I think it wise to take the company out of the list for the time being.
As for Echo this is no time to bottle out, the company has been in the list for some time waiting developments at Tapi Aike which I consider to be the jewel in the company’s crown. With 3D seismic completed and being analysed, the agenda looks like being set fair for drilling in Q4 2019 whereupon we shall see what might be had. I am not underestimating the country risk here but feel that a big discovery should make a positive impact whatever. Another company I will likely get stick for staying with is Aminex which I should probably have cut a long time ago. But right now, I’m convinced that John Bell and the team are doing all they can to prepare the company for the future and with strict cost saving and hopefully soon a farm-out completion faith will be rewarded.
SDX Energy has had a difficult time this year, a combination of missing targets on the South Disouq start-up more than once, missing out on a number of potential acquisitions, firing its CEO and then slashing guidance in Morocco has left its toll on the share price. Historically I don’t change the list between interim reports but I probably should have seen the writing on the wall, cancelling analysts visits twice should have been a sign to be taken on board, anyway the company is off the list for the time being.
Finally, Sound Energy where after a very promising start in Morocco the last well was disappointing and the company has decided to market the existing gas discovery. As such it would be unwise to take it off the list in the middle of such a process and the company still has a market cap of £100m which should be respected.
Now all is needed is to decide on the replacements from the subs bench as it were. I said last time that RockRose Energy would have been included had it not been suspended so now I can rectify that. At 1730p it seems odd having been taken off the market at 805p but that was prior to the Marathon deal that they have just completed. The deal doubles or more production and resources and in a stroke takes it into a bigger league where I am sure more deals will be possible. At this price the shares are totally covered by cash and that leaves huge scope for a significant upward rerating, I have a target price of 3750p.
Another stock covered by its own cash in the balance sheet is Chariot Oil & Gas whom I am also promoting into the bucket list today. The management have proved that they can get over previous disappointments with the drill bit and bounced back with a very exciting deal in Morocco earlier this year. The Lixus deal looks very impressive and for a very small outlay they have a gas discovery at Anchois-1 which can be monetised very quickly. Having picked up a substantial 75% stake they will farm-out some of this but with a strong domestic gas market there will be no shortage of potential partners for the company. Chariot has a very tight grip on costs and with more than the current share price in cash is in a very strong position.
As and when any of the above stocks leave the list, and with at least two potentially in bid situations then I will go back to the bench where IGas, Predator, PetroTal and DGO are all waiting and in very good shape.
Another tranche sold this morning @ 173p .
Less shares now then original buy , might keep the rest poster on lse saying no news at this stage good sign .
Got that lot back on a set limit of 164p at 4.20pm thought I might as well
Did not take long to bounce back 177p today.
I just noticed i had a sell limit on at 175p placed about 9am which did not lift ( maybe just as well )
Chart on here shows high at 3pm 177.5p
Well that was lucky in hindsight drone attacks on Saudi Arabia over weekend sent oil prices up 20% over Sunday night.
Oil price was falling back by 8am according to radio .
The thought of selling the spike was correct did not do it .
It opened on a spike up buys @ 210 sells @ 205
The spread is not as wide as some others i have.
( On phone to ( D ) re ALBA. ( prevention !! ))
More to do with news of successful drill today then oil price gain .
Read bombs just put production back six weeks .
Yesterdays excitement over i bought some more @ 162p … 17th September , that’s cheaper then the slice 12 days ago , 5th September 2019
Coped below from lse link diagram does not copy
Eco Atlantic’s Gil Holzman on why Orinduik is now primed to reach its ‘world-class’ potential (ECO)
18 SEP 2019 | Daniel Flynn
Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas (LSE:ECO) hit 174.5p on Monday, after announcing the second oil discovery in as many months at its 15pc-owned Orinduik Block. Located off the coast of Guyana in South America, the Joe-1 exploration well was drilled to a depth of 2,175 meters and hit a “high-quality, oil-bearing sandstone reservoir with a high porosity”. For a company to have such success on back-to-back wildcat drills is extremely rare, and Eco CEO Gil Holzman believes this is a portent of even greater things to come.
The second strike
Wireline logging and sampling from Joe-1 confirmed that the Joe prospect, which is estimated to hold 150MMbbls of gross prospective resources, is a high quality, oil-bearing sandstone reservoir. Furthermore, the well encountered 16m of continuous thick sandstone, proving that recoverable oil is present.
And that’s not all. The Orinduik partners (Eco owns the 1,800km2 asset alongside operator Tullow Oil (60pc) and Total E&P (25pc)) have identified additional thinner sands above and below the primary discovery. They believe that these merit further investigation, and it is possible that these sands could yield even more recoverable oil.
Results of this further evaluation remain to be seen, but the critical point in yesterday’s news is that the second Orinduik discovery at Joe-1 has opened up an entirely new play. This is the first time that moveable hydrocarbons have been encountered in the upper tertiary horizon, marking an exciting development for Eco and its partners in Guyana.
Critically, the news came just weeks after Eco and its partners announced their first discovery on the Orinduik Block from an exploration well called Jethro-1. The well found that a prospect called Jethro-Tull, which is estimated to hold 250MMbbls of gross prospective resources, comprises a high-quality oil-bearing sandstone reservoir like Joe. The results far exceeded pre-drill expectations, encountering 55m of net high-quality oil pay in Orinduik’s lower tertiary horizon. This supports recoverable oil resources and proves up the lower tertiary play for future exploration.
A diagram showing Joe-1 and Jethro-1’s positioning on Orinduik’s numerous oil horizons (Source: Company)
Orinduik’s wider potential
An updated competent persons report (CPR) released in March this year indicated that the Orinduik Block contains best estimate prospective resources of 3,981MMboe oil. Of this figure – which increases to 7,215MMboe oil in the high estimate case – Eco’s net share is an impressive 597.3MMboe oil based on its 15pc stake. With this in mind, Eco’s chief executive and co-founder Gil Holzman told us that the partners’ ability to de-risk two significant horizons within the asset is ‘truly transformational’ for his firm:
‘Few firms enjoy two hits out of two wells – especially when these were not appraisal wells but exploration wells. When combined with Jethro, Joe’s success proves that our theory of shallow low-cost plays in Guyana exists. With two proven oil discoveries on our block in two separate horizons, and with multiple drilling targets in front of us, we are in a great place to develop a world-class asset.’
Compounding the opportunity offered by the discoveries at Jethro and Joe, Holzman also points to ExxonMobil’s recent string of significant discoveries on the Stabroek block immediately adjacent to Orinduik. The major has enjoyed a drilling success rate of 90pc here to-date, discovering more than 6,000MMbbls of recoverable oil. Perhaps most notably, Exxon’s massive Hammerhead discovery in Guyana’s tertiary horizon is thought to extend into Orinduik, further de-risking the play when combined with Eco and its partners’ discoveries.
Now that this year’s two-well drilling programme has completed, the Orinduik partners are ready to press on. The businesses are completing a detailed evaluation of the Jethro, Joe, and Hammerhead extension oil reservoirs on the Orinduik Block.
Elsewhere, Holzman highlights that a jack-up rig is due to drill a well called Carapa-1 well on a nearby Guyana licence later this month. The well – which is 37.5pc held by Eco’s partner Tullow – will test Guyana’s cretaceous oil horizon – also present on the Orinduik block. A result is due in the final quarter of this year.
With an opportunity in place for Orinduik’s cretaceous play to be proven alongside its tertiary plays, Holzman says Eco will soon formulate a future drilling programme for the block with its partners. Key to this will be last September’s CPR, which identified numerous exploration leads, many of which will have been de-risked significantly by recent newsflow. Among these leads, 591MMboe of gross prospective resources has been identified across five Tertiary prospects, while 3,176MMboe has been indicated across nine Cretaceous candidates.
‘Following the two discoveries and the opportunity presented by Hammerhead, Orinduik now looks like a big pool of oil traps when looked at with fresh eyes. The data gathered in the last month or so really strengthens our ability to interpret the field for future development – where the real opportunity lies,’ says Holzman.
‘Once we have results from the three different horizons, the upper tertiary which is now proven, the lower tertiary that we established from Jethro, and later Carapa towards the end of October, then we will get together around the drawing table and come up with an exploration and appraisal plan for the next year. We now have a clear path to making further discoveries and value creation for shareholders.’
Stellar funding position
Finally, as it stands, Eco is in a highly advantageous position when it comes to funding this work. Thanks to a $12.5m payment from Total in the wake of its Orinduik farm-in deal last year and a $17m placing in April, the firm had CAD$39.7m (£24.11m, $29.96m) in cash and cash equivalents as at the end of June 2019. This comes in spite of its obligation to contribute $7m and $3m to the drilling of Jethro-1 and Joe-1, respectively. According to Holzman, this gives the business the scope to fund the drilling of up to six additional Orinduik wells at current prices:
‘This is very exciting as the de-risking from Jethro and Joe gives us a few targets that we are very confident about going to drill and immediately encountering oil. We have a very successful team of experts from Tullow, Total and ourselves around the table and are highly enthused about the months to come – our confidence in Orinduik is increasing with every hole we drill.’
Eco’s stock has pulled back to 158p in recent days. However, with six fully funded wells to come at Orinduik for Eco, if Holzman’s view that the Block is a “big pool of oil traps” is confirmed, then further upside in the share price is definitely on the cards. It is even quite possible that the company might attract takeover interest. With all the recent exploration success there has been off the coast of Guyana, Eco could make a highly attractive target for a major international firm that is looking to enter this hot oil province and increase its reserves. Whatever the case, 2020 looks increasingly bright for Eco Atlantic.
Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas
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Daniel Flynn does not hold any position in the stock(s) and/or financial instrument(s) mentioned in the piece.
Daniel Flynn has not been paid to produce this piece by the company or companies mentioned above.
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It opened even lower this morning the spread shown 1.32% can not be correct deals 156.81p next one 162p its about 3%…
You do see the diagram if you click on link .
Keeps failing 148p now…
Chart indicates price as low as 128p but limit not lifting @ 132p.
Lifted immediately when i got back after drive out to st Georges @ 131p
Noticed a ordinary delayed publication from yesterday morning at 153p after my buy on history ?
Looks a good buy by week end .
But whole market up on brexit deal hopes. ( sterling gained 4% )
Better if i had held onto Vast up 20% Friday .
Back down to last top up level today what a difference a couple of weeks can make Vast went much higher but lower then sell to buy this now.
Had a sharp fall around 2pm before bouncing back to month low.
When I checked volume dealt on dip was zero.
Just crooked MM / brokers.