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Everyday

lse:lloy

#1

…everyday we are getting news of the damage and risks being caused to British based industry by Brexit uncertainty and the possibility of a hard Brexit.

Last week we had Siemens, Airbus and BMW. Today we have news that the investment in our car industry is currently half of what it was 10 years ago.

When will Brexiters admit the economic damage they have caused to our nation?

All this is part of the same pattern of causes that is keeping LLOY sp down in the dumps as fears of economic damage alarm institutional investors. As for most private investors…well?

Frog in a tree


Everyday
#2

Why don´t you put any blame on the BoE and their relentless QE programme? Reality will kick home at some point but you´re going to be the real loser!

2


#3

Hello Sara

On the whole QE has been beneficial in that it prevented a worse collapse in an economy which was being deflated by excessive austerity. We do need to normalise as soon as possible. Brexit might make this more difficult. Austerity shrunk the economy at the very time Keynesian theory said that the role of government was to stimulate the economy. At least QE counteracted some of this deflationary pressure but, in truth, the spoils went ultimately to the wealthy.

We can see in the Eurozone that since they started their own QE programme 3 years ago that the EZ economies have started to improve.

Regarding the recent warnings by business leaders, the reason why they are significant is that they are worried that a hard shade of Brexit will impose financial and operational barriers to trade with our nearest and biggest trading partner. Trade equals jobs and the revenues to run our country. This is why the warnings matter.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#4

On the whole QE has been beneficial in that it prevented a worse collapse in an economy

Last week we had Siemens, Airbus and BMW. Today we have news that the investment in our car industry is currently half of what it was 10 years ago.

Are you absolutely sure? Have you seen the goings on with Turkey & Argentina? QE is going to create the mother of all emerging debt crisis, far worse than 97-98. Are you sure Siemens, Airbus et al are just not signs of a collapsing economies(s)? You forgot Rolls Royce, that relocated to Solvenia nothing to do with Brexit.

Brexit, is a trade war tool, when you have huge trading deficits. This cannot go on forever. There are big things you ignore, Frog!


#5

Taken from the £9m Leaflet that the uneducated and the great unwashed didn’t read properly.

The referendum on Thursday, 23 June is your chance to decide if we should remain in or leave the European Union.

The government believes it is in the best interests of the UK to remain in the EU.

This is the way to protect jobs, provide security, and strengthen the UK’s economy for every family in this country – a clear path into the future, in contrast to the uncertainty of leaving.

This is your decision. The government will implement what you decide.

Now get on with it .


#6

Hi Fiat,

I agree re QE. It was vital initially. Financial crisis in 2008 went well beyond our banking system to infect UK’s major pension funds, investment schemes, et al, as banks passed off complicated debt-riddled investments via CDOs. Whether QE went on too long as it ultimately did little for many ordinary citizens (as you note), is another question.

Now we’ve a number of challenges affecting LLOY’s, some inescapably related to Brexit’s uncertainties, but not all. Obviously, growing concerns over President Trump escalating global trade wars have a wider impact.

A looming problem is UK’s vastly over-inflated house prices & falling sales. Over-inflated & beyond the reach of many ordinary citizens on average incomes not down to free market economics, but by vested interests. They’ve interfered in free markets for too long by pumping up prices. Until UK’s property markets are fixed, this will be a growing threat to LLOY’s recovery anytime soon.

For eg., from my observations in areas like Staffordshire & South Cheshire, new build sale completions are increasingly heavily reliant on 20% discounts via tax-payer funded “Help To Buy” scheme. Other areas are seeing similar issues.

Pertinent to note that businesses like Carpetright (just issued a 3rd profit warning in 4 months), Bensons for Beds, Harveys Furniture, et al, are all reporting drastically falling sales. Whilst some of that ties-in with a general downturn seen across UK’s High Streets, some of it undoubtedly relates to a drop in UK house sales.

Earlier this year PropertyWire reported that UK property sales failing to reach completion after proceedings started reached 38.8%. Highest level in a decade. Sorry I can’t add the link (Google is your friend), as this page goes blank if I try to.

These are all red alert warning signals of likely further house price corrections ahead & give us reason to remain cautious. I’m not saying Brexit’s uncertainties aren’t a significant factor, but for ordinary Britons of various backgrounds, some of the roots of these problems go back to a time well before Brexit.

Regards.


#7

Siemens, Rolls Royce, Airbus and BMW are all successful companies, as are the Japanese car makers who set up in the UK to gain a platform for exports to the EU. These people are in the business of making money rather than political points and therefore in terms of our business propects they are worth listening to.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#8

Good morning all,

So we are doomed, I tell you, doomed by not sorting out Brexit to suit Siemens, Airbus & BMW amongst others.

Why are they only shouting at the U.K.? The U.K. seem to have been making suggestions (not necessarily rude ones) to the EU over how we would like to see trade with them after Brexit resolved.

The EU turn their collective noses up at each suggestion, non is invariably the answer.

Should these major industries that so want a Brexit deal that suits them not be putting similar pressure on Brussels and their own governments to ensure they get the deal that will allow them to continue trading in a similar manner as today with the U.K.?

On the subject of the republic of Ireland / Notern Ireland border, through which we are told 49 percent of all the Republic’s export trade passes to its main customer the U.K. including Northern ireland. Surely it must be of benefit to Dublin to exert pressure on Brussels for a soft border where, perhaps, all goods are tagged electronically? A frictionless border benefits both the Republic and Northern Ireland in equal measure both economically and politically. A hard border of whatever composition might just rekindle the grievances of the 70’s and 80’s and would benefit nobody.

Whether you are a Remainer or a Brexiteer it is the interests of all sides to get their heads out of the sand and start working to ensure that Brexit when it happens is EQUITABLE for all parties and not just used as a stick to beat the U.K. for having the temerity to vote to leave the EU!

Kind regards
TJ


#9

You make an excellent point about Rolls Royce, Sara. I live in NW Italy and we rent out an apartment to guests. We a Solvenian couple, who told me that their education system is now ranked 12th best globally. Leaving aside Brexit, the laughable state of UK apprenticeships is another factor to contend with.

The Keynesian model is a closed economy model. We live in a globalised society. Look how successful Yugoslavia was under market socialism. Apart from financial services and maybe education, what does Britain, do now, that’s so good? Oh Royalty.


#10

Hi Jack…a good post from you relating to the housing market. I have posted previously on the BDEV and TW discussion boards (no doubt to the disapproval of other who hold the stocks as I do) that house prices have spiralled to socially undesirable levels, enriching share holders and aging house owners but locking out many younger people from the home ownership. Whilst the New Labour government could have and should have done more, the neo-liberal faith in the market being able to provide has fallen well short of the mark. One might well suspect that builders are managing supply and maintaining a house shortage just in order to boost profits. Dysfunctional capitalism. A mixed economy was always the better idea.

I hold the Tories as mainly responsible with its Right to Buy policy and its prevention of replacement social house building. This was not for any positive socially beneficial reasons but specifically to avoid creating Labour voters. Labour can seize a initiative here by proposing a massive social house building initiative. The evidence is that even with lower rents, social housing pays for itself many times over.

I have argued on the TW and BDEV boards that a building programme of this kind to eliminate the shortage would bring house prices down. Even at the cost of a bit of negative equity this would be a good thing, in my view, so we can get back to a housing market that works for the wholeof society.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#11

Trader,

The arguments around the terms of Brexit are to be expected in a negotiation process. The EU knows that the UK would be the biggest loser from a hard Brexit and so does Theresa May and Philip Hammond and some others. On the otherhand, we know that damage will be caused to EU based exporters under a hard Brexit. What we are seeing at the moment is position play on the way to cobbling some sort of deal. I am afraid that any form of Brexit will be damaging to both parties but some of our more boneheaded Brexiters don’t seem to understand that the EU must protect the integrity and principles of the union and for this reason cannot agree a “cake and eat it” deal.

Softer is better!

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#12

Spoken like a true Remainer Frog,

I have often wondered how the “Brexit discussions” might have gone had David Cameron just accepted the referendum vote on the day and handed in “our resignation letter” on the same day and just said,“That’s it, we are leaving immediately. Thanks for everything and goodbye, we don’t require any deals on trade or anything else”

What do you think the Brussels would have done had that happened?

TJ


#13

Perhaps you hadn’t noticed that it is a complicated business? I guess you are a “no deal” supporter. Says it all really.

All the best,

Frog in a tree


#14

Boris Johnson is reported to have responded to the concerns being expressed by business leaders by saying “F**k Business”.

And there was me thinking that the Conservative Party was the party of business.

The truth is that it is a party of Little England, not even Little Britain.

Although I am no Corbyn supporter, it is hard to see how Corbyn could be any worse than this shower.

We will soon be seeing Rolls Royce cars being made in the EU, maybe Germany. Oh, the irony!

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#15

…everyday more warnings of damage to UK businesses.

Thankfully as LBG is mainly domestic focussed this shouldn’t trouble it too much:

However, as financial services are our biggest business sector, this article flags up that there will be tougher times ahead in the event of a hard Brexit.

We need to keep up the pressure on HMG not to give in to the hard Brexiters.

Everyday we get more of these warnings spreading over our business sectors like a web.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#16

Hi Frog,

So I am assuming that it is only the City’s Brexit plans that are inadequate, the EU plans on the other hand are entirely adequate. Well that’s all right then if you are on the side of the EU!

TJ


#17

Hi Trader, perhaps you missed the point that it will be the British banks that will be outside the single market? I guess all the EU banks will be fine as they are within the EU. As for what barriers the EU banks may face in trading with UK institutions it is anyone’s guess since HMG seem to be lacking in specific proposals. If I were you, I would read the article for what it is.

Maybe if you keep whistling it will all go away!

Cheers ,

Frog in a tree


#18

You seem to misunderstand democracy.


#19

Democracy ? He isn’t exactly clued up on investment advice either lol.

“It’s for you to decide but I say STRONG BUY.”


#20

Are you telling me that all the EU banks operating in London are not included in the banking regulators plans and are deemed to be fully compliant in the plans they have for post Brexit?

All banks in London operate under the control and guidance of the Bank of England. I no longer know how many EU banks are fully operational in London after Brexit. The bank lists about 80 EEA banks in total but not all wiill be fully operational, There are Dutch, French, German, Danish , Belgian, Spanish, Portuguese, Italian & Irish banks involved and others from the remaining member states.

Are you telling me that every EU bank is either exempt from their requirements or not deemed to have to take any actions?

TJ