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lse:lloy

#3381

Its reckoned we’ve lost 2.5% GDP so far. I don’t know if you’d call that a severe economic downturn. Also, some of the current GDP has been generated by preparations for Brexit, but I’ve never seen any figures on that.

Other things like the loss of R&D expenditure is only going to reveal itself over time, and probably wont be very trackable even then. Also there is surely a slow process of contracts running out and not being renewed.

When and if we do leave we know a lot of companies have opened ‘forward operating bases’ in EU countries with basically skeleton staff at the moment. If Brexit finally happens we have to assume more jobs will transfer abroad - and they’re all higher end jobs too.

I doubt we’ll ever know anything other than estimates. E.g. Losses to R&D expenditure may be relatively small in the overall scheme, but potentially huge if companies makes significant breakthroughs that would have otherwise been based in the UK. It is hard to put value on that, just one could lead to a whole series of new patents that might even transform a whole sector.

What doesn’t seem to be in dispute anymore, from any side, is that the UK has lost out through this process, and in a big way, and that the losses are going to keep adding up into the future, whatever the outcome. Meanwhile, the supposed benefits have added nothing so far of real worth (a lot of largely wasted expenditure in preparation) and that side of the ledger has a long, long way to go to even start to catch up.


#3382

What does that work out to?..is that an annual ‘loss’ in GDP or the reduction in GDP since the referendum in 2016?

UK GDP is circa £2,000 billion…therefore 2.5% of that is £50 billion (circa £300 million per week since referendum in 2016)

SO rather than gaining £350m per week for the NHS, the UK economy has lost at least £300m per week in growth…brilliant!! :face_with_raised_eyebrow: And all so we can be governed by people like BoJo/Cumming/Reees-Mogg etc etc.


#3383

Did ‘we’ come to an agreement with the EU for access to the Galileo satellite system…if ‘we’ have to create our own system from scratch it will cost many £ billions (‘probably’ North of £10 bn…although with UK government projects costs are likely to grow rapidly…as ever :face_with_raised_eyebrow:). Still we have the Magic Brexit money tree to pay for all such things…the tree that keeps on giving!!


#3384

You might be interested in this:


#3385

the uk wont ever do that on its own. It would have to be with other countries


#3386

I assume that 2.5% GDP figure- is the total amount since the referendum, so 0.75% of DGP knocked off p.a. perhaps? Goldman said 2.5% lost by 1 April 2019, almost 1 % p.a. The same report projected 3.5% loss with Johnson’s deal over the next x years. I can’t remember how long it was, but perhaps the two figures togethr might ring a bell? I don’t have time to search it out at the moment

This might give some of the figures mentioned:


#3387

Brexit deal means ‘£70bn hit to UK by 2029’ 30 October 2019 Business
Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal will leave the UK £70bn worse off than if it had remained in the EU, a study by the National Institute of Economic and Social

yes Brexit is just bad for the UK no matter who we quote and let’s hope that debate keeps being discussed

Brexit is all lies.


#3388

whichever party wins the general election


#3389

Last year…
LDs gained 706 councillors and control of 10 councils.
Cons lost 1,330 councillors and control of 44 councils.
Labour lost 84 councillors and control of 6 councils.
50,000 new members have joined last
year. We now have more than 128,000 members.

any idea why Bojo has blocked this


#3390

Why don’t you ask him ?
No comment on that Jo what’s her name triple whammy of student debt ? Never trust a party that shielded Cyril smith Pete mate …very bad form.


#3391

rather prefer to stay in the current timeframe rather than drag up the stuff from the past as If we did that for the Tories it would never end.
so Bojo blocking a report on Russian interference TODAY is maybe more relevant

AND also today your other crooked politician TRUMP


#3392

Well it’s 2019 matey , your stuck in 2016😂


#3393

"Prat of the Week Award

…goes to Jacob Rees Mogg for his on air comments about the Grenfell fire. Hopefully it will lose him a few votes.

Frog in a tree


#3394

Stupid comments for a politician to make so he deserves what he gets.
However… he’s quite right.

Anyone staying in a burning, smoke-filled building rather than running down the fire escapes (unless they can’t for whatever reason) is being pretty irresponsible.

The London Fire Brigade are also rightly taking flak. All this stuff about only blaming the building materials is bullshit.
The Fire Brigade were called when it was just a small fire in one flat… it then took hours for them to respond appropriately whilst dozens of reporters watched and filmed the disaster unfolding.
They don’t even have ladders and equipment to reach half way up the building.

Another inadequate service, living in the past, little changed in 50+ years , dented budgets, poor quality staff and stupid decision-making. UK had better get used to it with Brexit making such things even worse as inevitably services are further cut as UK gets poorer.


#3395

JW, your comment is based on what we know now…when Grenfell occurred people had more faith in the advice of the Fire service and Grenfell residents were told to stay put and they would be rescued…some of those were children who believed what they were being told. To have Rees-Mogg suggest that they were being reckless with their own lives is a disgrace & he should be ashamed of himself.


#3396

No, it’s based on a healthy sense of knowing when a building is on fire or not. Trusting anyone else… Fire Service or not… is ridiculous. You get the hell out of danger as soon as you can no matter what anyone else is telling you.


#3397

Both you & Rees-Mogg are wrong. What you write is deeply offensive to the families of those who died at Grenfell. Their deaths weren’t in any way their own fault…

In an emergency do you follow the advice of doctors, police, ambulance staff, etc…or do you just do your own thing (along with the lives of your family)?

It would have been better if people in Grenfell had ignored the advice they were given and try to get out (some did)…but to expect them all to do that is absurd.


#3398

Hindsight is a wonderful thing JW. The residents of Grenfell had every reason to believe the stay put advice was best.

Frog


#3400

Festival of Brexit is still on… don’t hold your breath though… for either Festival… or Brexit.

"
Boris Johnson’s government is pressing ahead with a controversial post-Brexit festival of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, inherited from Theresa May, but which the new prime minister had been urged to shelve.

Dean Creamer, a delivery director for the 2022 Commonwealth Games in Birmingham, has been put in charge of planning for the £120m project – dubbed the “festival of Brexit” by critics – which is due to take place in 2022, the Guardian has learned.

However, figures from arts institutions have privately expressed concern about the project, which some say is likely to alienate remain-supporting visitors at museums and galleries that are expected to take part.

There had been previous warnings that the idea – announced by May in 2018 as an initiative that would “strengthen our precious union” – could inflame tensions in Northern Ireland, coming a year after the centenary of Irish partition and on the 100th anniversary of the start of the Irish civil war.

The festival was billed as a showcase for “the UK’s unique strengths in creativity and innovation” with echoes of the 1851 Great Exhibition and the 1951 festival of Britain.

A pledge was made to deliver “an exciting programme” of events on arts, culture, design and technology in the same year as the Queen’s platinum jubilee and to “amplify” key anniversary celebrations including the BBC’s 100th birthday and the 75th anniversary of the Edinburgh international and fringe festivals.
"
source: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/05/government-pushes-ahead-plans-festival-of-brexit


#3401

Petethenovice, have you read about Transparency International and it’s links via funding to the EU ? 3.5m Euros worth , Would you be surprised to hear it’s run by Jo Swindlesomes Husband ? Conflict of interest perhaps?
Quick google search will reveal multiple stories related to the drama about to unfold :+1: