Read the article TJ.


Everyday…here’s another for those that voted for it:

Democracy in action, perhaps?

Frog in a tree


Everyday…and here’s another car executive, this time Nissan, warning that because of the uncertainty investment plans are on hold:

See “We have no clue” at 18.38.

All the best,

Frog in a tree


John Lewis (occasional poster) has just announced a profit warning…OMG…the bellweather of all things middle class is struggling. OMG cubed. I don’t know if this is strictly Brexit related but it could be that middle class England(ers) are tightening their belts…in preparation for…gawd only knows.

Pinch me…John Lewis are struggling!!!:tired_face::prayer_beads::dromedary_camel:


Trader Jack,

It’s the UK that has chosen to leave the EU. One of the main issues is that US and European banks currently benefit from passporting regulations that let them run trading operations from the UK ie. they can sell their services freely within the EU states.

If passporting ceases (and it would upon a Hard Brexit) then the main reason for many US and European Banks to have many of their operations in the UK disappears. Hence they will move many of their jobs (not all but a sizeable amount) to new (or existing) offices that are within the EU.

This affects ANY Bank/Financial Institution that operates in the UK and that makes use of financial passporting. The impact on the UK will be a loss in tax (of various types) and a loss in jobs… unless someone sorts out this highly predicable mess.


UK population rises

The UK population increased to an estimated 66 million people at the end of June 2017, according to the first official figures accounting for the year since the EU referendum.


If you believe the British Media comments after the Out Vote, everyone going to move out of the UK to the wonderful EU and dump their British Passports and all rushing down the passport office to leave us horrible nasty lot


Regardless - hi. Perhaps the EU is not so wonderful!! Failure to deal with mass immigration is now a very serious issue - who says so …
“The fragility of the EU is increasing,” warns EU Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker. “The cracks are growing in size.”
Makes an old / long established Brexiteer extremely happy
PS before ii c**ked it all up, I occasionally posted as jafurrank


J Arthur, OK, we can all agree that the EU isn’t perfick, but we have to ask ourselves:

What has the EU ever done for us?

I expect the list is quite extensive.

Brexiteer: All right, but apart from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, the fresh-water system, and public health, what has the EU ever done for us?
Remainer: Brought peace?


The recent weakness in bank stocks has got me confused…I suppose it is a myriad of reasons. One of them must be Brexit…and the uncertainty IMO will only increase from now until October (when it will presumably reach a crescendo). Until we have the deal signed (or at least agreed) then I think the prospect of a ‘no deal’ could weigh heavily on bank stocks.


It was and is NATO that bought and maintained peace in Europe since WW2 not the EU or Common Market.
The threat to peace post 1945 came from the Soviet Union…a potential threat still exists esp to Baltic States & Easter Europe from a Russia that seems to have ideas of reinventing the Soviet Empire as well as from elsewhere think Iran & associates.
Apart from minor roles by UK & France(the latter some of the time) most other European countries have done sfa in providing trained front lined forces.
The EU needs to be very careful about winding up Trump;he does have a case about Europe doing very little of the heavy lifting in its defence.


Hi Oilovlam,

As you say, there’s the worry over a “no deal” regarding Brexit. That’d be a huge blow for our banking sector. It may not happen of course (we may get a VG deal from mutual interests), but just the ongoing uncertainty remains a burden.

Also, confidence behind banks & commodities in general recently rocked by fears of escalating trade wars. Though some of that may be overdone, some caution seems warranted as nearly every rise heralds yet another next round of selling. But a stronger relief rally soon won’t surprise me as more negatives get priced in.

But more “get out of jail” cards for underperforming banking CEOs & Chairmen. BARC especially comes to mind with their Chairman’s aspiration stated in July 2015 to double BARC’s SP to 520 within 3 years. Once again they can blame uncontrollable macro-factors like lack of progress in Brexit negotiations, or global trade wars, et al, for failing to deliver results, whilst pocketing generous bonuses.

That said, with significant stakes here & in BARC I remain bullish for longer-term. Especially once PPI & more legacy issues are addressed. - Regards.


Hi Jack

Hope you are OK mate

What price would Lloyds Banking Group be if Brexit never happened, I sure a little higher that we have today on the bid 63p so the Bank Chairman and CEO’s have a little point here, but other from that UK Banks Shares have taken a battering over the last 18 months IMHO

Funny I always noticed odd years are always bad years for Banks in general over the years

Anyway its my savings and I loading up here for the goodbye to PPI club 2019


Hi Regardless,

Thanks. Hope all’s well with you, too?

Making slow progress here on the leveraged front, whilst underwater positions in shares are comfortable enough for an anticipated longer-term hold. Though I’m ever mindful that much can happen in this uncertain world that catches us unawares & which no-one can control (for eg. early GE’s, escalating trade wars, et al), that applies to so many things beyond markets. End of the day, we can only trade how we see whatever is known.

Re your question: if not for Brexit, we can safely assume all banks would be in a far better place, especially LLOY. But with PPI still a burden, I highly doubt we’d be close to breaking long-term resistance at 89p going back to May 2015.

However, though I’m speculating, I think there’s a strong case that we’d be higher than mid-term resistance at 73+ (tested a few times over past 2 years) & be ranging between mid-70s to low 80s as reasonable value in view of all the underlying progress made in recent years. Higher than that may have to wait until closer to PPI being history. - Regards.


Oilovlam - hi
‘What has the EU ever done for us?
Remainer: Brought peace?’
Agreeit has, but I don’t live in the past.
The EU has grown too large, is trying to ‘overlay’ a commonality’ to widely differing national characteristics, histories and social systems, ignoring (until now when forced) rising anti-EU national movements with a basically undemocratic structure and decision making system led by Germany and France.
It has no long-term future.


JAR, so what’s the alternative…war?!? We cannot turn the clock back (ahhhh, halcyon days!!). A common trading block is good, unfortunately ‘people’ have been bolting on extra bits and not everyone agrees that they are good (although that may be short termism &/or political shenanigans). So where does that leave us in our brave New world. Possibly with multinationals who no longer see UK Plc as an attractive investment opportunity (no longer the gateway to Europe). With undoubtedly a more expensive civil service & border infrastructure (Lord Dicky Davis of Perthshire will be pleased though). And probably worst of all is that the likes of Bojo, Moggy, the Govathon, Foxy…blimey the list is endless of grey faced nincompoops …who will be telling us what to do…that we have never had it so good…as we cue up at the foodbanks…as they invent new ways to spend the bounty from the never ending Brexit dividend money tree. 3 months and counting…12 weeks…enjoy the football…perhaps Germany are playing the long game!?! Perhaps we will win the battle, but who will win the war?


oilovlam - hi,
Must say your response is a bit overexited mate! Whatever you or I say or think won’t change things at all.
A couple of points:
There will be a real Brexit ‘bonus’ - we pay £13 billion to the EU … and get back £4 billion. Arithmetically that means we will have £9 billion pounds per year available to reallocate.
You list (and decry ), some of our politicians as useless but by implication are quite content with being ‘ruled’ by unelected incompetent european politicians.
The flaws in the Eu are being laid bare and it has 2 alternatives … change radically or fail.


Everyday… JAR, the evidence piles up that there will be no Brexit dividend. HMG have clarified that extra funding for the NHS will come from taxation, extra taxation, because there is no Brexit dividend. Quite to the contrary, Treasury calculations show that under any Leave scenario that the country will be worse off. Its not all about government to government transfers and rebates, but also about the impact on business activity and tax revenues.

The above article is one of the latest to summarise how Brexit is impacting on our economy. It also expresses the opinion that the true believers are impervious to the true facts as they are running on the gas of emotional response. All we get from Leave supporters is “Project Fear” but no worked out summary of the economic benefits of Leave. I guess this is because the reality is there aren’t many.

The inescapable economic truth of Brexit for those with minds open to truth is that it will leave us worse off as a nation as business declines or flees our shores, that tariffs are likely to increase prices, that we will be short of workers, that we will be less influential on the international stage. and that national finances will suffer huge damage. In our aging population it is largely from older people that taxes will have to be drawn in order to support their increasing needs.


Frog in a tree


JAR, don’t forget that in any calculation on the Brexit dividend must take account of the hit on the UK economy. Since triggering Brexit (I believe) that our economic performance hasn’t been as good as some of our EU peers, so that is another bite out of the Breit dividend…and that’s before we have even left. OK, perhaps the uncertainty is having a negative impact, perhaps when we leave properly we will see a Brexit boost. I don’t think many economists are expecting that, especially when Barnier and the united 27 countries seem to be resolute on the UK being worse off outside the EU than in.

But things will be OK…trust the politicians…they know want they are doing. Although the government still cannot decide what they want from Brexit…but the can kicking is coming to the end of the road…the road that seems to be heading over a cliff.

Also don’t forget in the short to medium term that there is a Brexit divorce bill to pay…which seems unlikely to be less that circa £40bn. So taking account of the divorce payment and the economic hit it may be many years before any Brexit bonus will be available for the NHS, military, police, schools etc etc (the list of beneficiaries of this magic money tree just keeps on growing).


FIAT, last week a UK parliamentary select committee suggested a tax (increased NI contributions) for the over 40s to fund elderly care…so there are signs that the asset rich older generations are going to have to pay more. Although any political party that puts that in a manifesto and thinks the gray vote will back it would be very brave IMO (don’t forget Theresa Mays dementia tax which went down like a lead balloon and may have wiped out her parliamentary majority).


Oilo / FIAT / PTN
One fact I think we can all agree on is that you won’t change your views & neither will I.
Keep thinking the EU is worth staying within and ignore the obvious flaws and divisions (as stated recently by Jean-Claude Junker). At some point the EU (as we know it now), will be no more. It has to fundamentally change or die.
It’s a waste of time to continue any arguments.
This site is a heap of c*** and I’m off to set up my portfolio on Stockapedia (excellent for analysis of potential stock buys / sells).
Goodbye and good luck!