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lse:lloy

#623

How nice of Hillary… esp seeing as she was a key figure in the trashing of Libya 7 years ago (the No Fly zone quickly turned into an invasion) causing the deaths of thousands and one of the largest movements of refugees the world has seen by ‘uncorking the bottle’ due to the proximity of Libya to Europe.


#624

Oh and by the way, the UK has always been able to control immigration from the EU… it has chosen not to however for the last 14 years.

The UK has never used the EU Directive:
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2004:158:0077:0123:en:PDF

The UK made large scale reductions in UK Border forces many years back mean that so they aren’t able able to cope with dealing with the above Directive which would require them to staff back up.
Oh, the irony of it.


#625

Day 124. The Sunday Summit.

Looks like there’s agreement. Not long now.

Amazon reports ‘record levels’ of UK shopping as Black Friday takes off.

I expect the Guardian will describe that “as panic buying before Brexit” Lol

So I guess we should interpret the chaos on the Champs-Elysées as investment in European ideals.

Can’t wait to see how the “I” explains it all:

“Tax dodging xenophobic Brexiteers storm Champs-Elysées after cocktail of Amazon robot sweat”

Lol

“ for those interested in seeing the full article…” :wink:


#626

Didn’t we have mass civil unrest a few years back…I suppose that was the EU’s fault :face_with_monocle:


#627

Best laugh of the day:

Tony Blair responding to a question on a 2nd Referendum:

“It’s like me walking through the door of Downing Street and becoming a Conservative…” Lol

And Jeremy Corbyn’s visit to the EU to discuss Brexit got off to a bad start:

He forgot to take any Euros and so did the rest of his team Lol :blush:


#628

That was two months ago…


#629

Day 123.

You get the feeling the 2nd Referendum crowd has given up hope.

All eyes are on the meaningful voteand will Corbyn debate May in a TV head-to-head?

That would be a good thing in my mind. For democracy. And theatrical entertainment.

A remainer telling us of the merits of leaving and a leaver telling us of the merits of staying.

The media playing the Greek Chorus.

I expect the Guardian, true to form, will want it to be a tragedy…


#630

Most likely the Deal will be narrowly voted down. If that happens then the most likely scenario… quite apart from leadership debate/PM resigning/GE… will be an extension to Article 50 and #BrexitRef2.


#631

#632

Says vote remain wow that’s an unbiased article


#633

Everyday…

…we are losing more and more much needed skilled workers from our health service and other public bodies:

http://guardian.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/iphone/homepage.aspx#_article5d17deac-ddca-42fb-88fb-98fb98ace98e

Some of you voted for it and here it is.

Frog in a tree


#634

Day 122.

The expected quiet period before the meaningful vote.

The usual panic from the usual suspects.

Do they ever get tired on running around in ever decreasing circles like Chicken Little?

“The end of the world is near, we are doomed!” :slight_smile:

We now have a date I believe, 12th December.

I guess their prophecy of doom and gloom will build up till them.

Expect lots of clucking…

Did you hear a school bell? Run for your lives!

:chicken::hatched_chick::hatching_chick::baby_chick: :wink:


#635

I believe George Osborne gave similar predictions before the vote, but his predictions of an immediate recession following the leave vote have been made to look very biased and ridiculous.

I do agree that there will be a negative impact, but I take a 10+ year forecast which comes out just before parliament votes seriously!


#636

OK @rob14… here’s another report fresh out today from the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics (LSE), King’s College London and the Institute for Fiscal Studies… this is the Conclusion:

( Source: http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/The-economic-consequences-of-Brexit.pdf )

"
Our modelling leads us to estimate that the Brexit deal could reduce UK GDP per capita by between 1.9% and 5.5% in ten years’ time, compared to remaining in the EU. The cost to the public finances would be between 0.4% and 1.8% of GDP over the same period, and the corresponding figures for a no deal Brexit would be 1% to 3.1%.

Taken together, the estimates imply that no deal would, in the long term (ignoring the impacts of short-term disruption), lead to a reduction in UK GDP per capita, compared to the ‘baseline’ of remaining an EU member, of 3.5% to 8.7%—the large range reflecting the very substantial uncertainties involved. The negative impact of the proposed deal would be smaller, but still substantial, amounting to between 1.9% and 5.5% of GDP per capita.

Such a large economic impact would also have major implications for the public finances. These would far outweigh any gains resulting from reduced EU contributions. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has estimated that if the impacts on GDP were as estimated above, then in a no deal scenario the cost to the public finances would be between 1% and 3.1% of GDP, and between 0.4% and 1.8% if the deal was implemented. This is even after taking account of the long-term saving on the UK’s net EU contributions of 0.4% of GDP.

Clearly, these figures are significant. Clearly, too, their impact would be felt over time. For all the talk about a Brexit ‘cliff edge,’ should the withdrawal agreement be signed and subsequently ratified (admittedly a big if at the moment), the UK would continue to trade with the EU on essentially the same terms until the end of the transition period. Only thereafter would the practical impact of Brexit be felt.

Nevertheless, our findings imply challenges ahead for policy makers. The scale of impact that we have
estimated will make it harder to achieve key public policy objectives. Difficult choices, particularly about taxation and spending, will have to be made. And there is little if any sign that the starkness of these choices has yet been appreciated, not least by the two main political parties, both of whose manifestos for the 2017 seemed to imply that a post-Brexit world would be one of business as usual.
"

By the way, the Treasury report pre-Referendum in 2016 had several scenarios and referred to the 2 years after leaving “assuming a bilateral trade agreement with the EU would have been negotiated”… noone then thought we would still not be much further down the road over 2 years later.


#637

Day 121

Everyday…Labour looses the plot a little more:

“Labour plans to give customers of big firms vote on boardroom pay
Exclusive: measures could include paying execs only in cash and naming staff paid £150k+“

Over 7000 companies would need to provide a “consumer” vote.

On a day when the BBC are leading on a guy who was nearly defrauded because he complained on a Banks Twitter page…

Labour wants to create the perfect fraudsters paradise.

Labour’s No Deal Brexit and this kind of nonsense will damage the future of generations.


#638

#639

Everyday…

…another analysis of the likely impact of Brexit hits our screens. Well, maybe its not everyday that we get a detailed analysis from the Treasury:

https://www.bbc.co.uk//uk-politics-46366162

These assessments show that any form of Brexit is likely to be damaging to the UK economy and the harder the Brexit the greater the damage.

The published analysis does not include an impact assessment of May’s proposed deal. We need this before any decisions are taken. I have no doubt that May’s deal, while not as damaging as a hard Brexit, will still be more damaging than remaining in the EU as Hammond confirmed this morning. Poor guy, he is trying to be loyal to his boss but it does not wash.

Frog in a tree


#640

FIAT, something wrong with your link.

"Official figures say the UK economy could be up to 3.9% smaller after 15 years under Theresa May’s Brexit plan, compared with staying in the EU.

But a no-deal Brexit could deliver a 9.3% hit, the new estimates say."


#641

There is a lot of evidence mounting, even with large margins for error :grimacing:


#642

Everyday…

…more negative economic forecasts about Brexit. Its not everyday that we get two credible forecasts. First today we had a report from the Treasury and second today we have the Bank of England weighing in.

They warn that the pound could shrink by 25% and the economy contract by 8% in the event of a hard Brexit. It is to be hoped that our resident Hard Brexiters BoredMore and Huwjarse don’t have ambitions to gain career advancement at the BofE.

I now await for allegations of “Project Fear v. 110” and the Bank of England being a leninist marxist globalist corporation or some such.

Hard Brexiters are simply and massively wrong…even more wrong than Theresa May.

Frog in a tree