Global warming should make him happy then :face_with_raised_eyebrow:



…Mark Carney gives more factual information that punctures Brexiter delusions. This time he has spoken on the impact on food prices of a no deal Brexit.

I say we should give Mark a knighthood for speaking truth to fools.


Frog in a tree


Cue The Stupid proclaiming “Project Fear”…


I think your being a little harsh on yourself for believing another one of his predictions but hey ho.
And we’ve yet to see one of his “could” predictions come to pass…re The Knighthood ? For what ? Services to 0.25 Interest Rates ?



…tory voices speak out against Brexit. Today Jo Johnson emailed me this:

"I feel so strongly that the Prime Minister’s deal is against the national interest that a few weeks ago I resigned from the Government. I can now speak freely on the important issue we have faced as a country in many years.

What is clear to me is that, contrary to all the promises made for Brexit in the referendum campaign, the PM’s deal will leave us poorer and less in control than we are today as equal partners in the EU. And, on Friday, my colleague Sam Gyimah, stood up for his principles by resigning as Universities minister, so he too could speak up and vote against this deal. Neither of us took this decision lightly but we know these are historic times and the stakes for our country and our democracy could not be higher.

Today Parliament began probably the most important debate in many decades. As an MP, I will get the chance to say this deal is not what anyone voted for and point out why it is so much worse than the one already have in the EU. And, at the end of that debate, Sam and I will be given the chance to vote against it next week.

But I want your voice to be heard too."

Former Tory ministers Jo and Sam are backing a People’s vote.

Me too!

Frog ina tree



…more evidence is revealed about the cheating and illegality of the Leave campaign. Now there are further questions about the source of Arron Banks’ donations to the campaign.

Is this man a crook?

Frog in a tree


Does the Pope shit in the woods?


Errr…so that’s a ‘No’ from JW :wink:


Day 113, double digits no far off.

Everyday the Siren voices get louder and a general election gets more distant…

" DUP would not topple May in confidence vote

The Democratic Unionist Party would not vote to topple Prime Minister Theresa May in a confidence vote even if she loses a key vote on her Brexit deal next week, DUP MP Sammy Wilson says"

It was always good form to tip the paper boy this time of year.

I would suggest they should have a whip round at the Guardian offices for the person who’s posted the most guardian links this year. LOL :smile:

If the Guardian ever folded it would be like a lobotomy for some dialecticians.

I mean, they’d have to think for themselves, wouldn’t they?


May to (eventually) get her way on Brexit predicts investment bank.

Berenger see success, even if it takes 2 rounds.

That looks to be the consensus amongst investment banks, as far as I can tell.

I’m still expecting a 2nd meaningful vote in January when the deal will pass.

Guardian link to follow LOL :roll_eyes:


DP, do you have a link…I’m wondering if the ‘investment’ bank(s) have taken into account Grieve’s amendment, which gives Parliament a lot more ability to ‘take back control’ of the Brexit process (IMO).


I’ve posted the JP Morgan one previously

It’s in Reuter’s news feed, try Google

Berenberg is in this weeks Shares Magazine.

Others you’ll find Googling or signing up for client letters.

You’ll have to decide on that yourself, but Berenger’s note was this week I believe.

I suspect most investment banks taking this position are up to speed with breaking news.

Noise until January, then a successful vote.


DP, you do make life hard work. I don’t follow your every post as closely as some do…I don’t hang off your every word. So it was JP Morgan (as if I was supposed to know)…when was their initial appraisal on the May deal succeeding on 2nd vote? Before or after Grieve’s amendment got approval?


Neither am I your search engine. If your are interested, try searching…


I think he might mean this… pretty much as I posted the other day in terms of priobabilities… and not quite like @devonplay has posted :

After a string of humiliating parliamentary defeats for May the day before cast new doubt over her ability to get a deal approved, U.S. investment bank J.P. Morgan said the chances of Britain calling off Brexit altogether had increased.

On Tuesday, just hours before the start of a five-day debate in the British parliament on May’s Brexit deal, a top law official at the European Court of Justice (ECJ) said Britain could pull back its formal divorce notice.

“The UK now appears to have the option of revoking unilaterally and taking a period of time of its own choosing to decide what happens next,” J.P. Morgan economist Malcolm Barr wrote in a note to clients.

He placed a 10 percent probability on a no-deal Brexit, down from 20 percent, and a 50 percent probability on an orderly Brexit, down from 60 percent. The chance of no Brexit at all doubled to 40 percent from 20 percent, in a sign of perhaps the biggest shift in perception since the June 2016 vote to leave.


So the above may be out of date and therefore not worth making investment decisions on. Just trying to clarify things. A simple link would have helped …but I guess that isn’t your thing.


Type Shares Magazine in a search engine( I’d suggest duck duck go), look at the Magazine. It’s free if you open an account and jump into the article.

I guess researching isn’t your thing?


No DP, I prefer that if people quote ‘sources’ and ‘investment banks’ that they provide a link to allow others to check the veracity of the information. People (on bothe sides of the debate) have quoted things from years ago that have little relevance or are taken out of context (example: Corbyn voted Leave…but not in 2016!..another Boradmoor gem if I remember correctly). It drives me mad, because it is lazy and could lead to people being misled.

DuckDuckGo is my search engine of choice…although having to use a specific search engine to find your information seems a little complicated (for most people IMO)…how about providing links to support some of your quotes to make life easier for people (and to show you don’t have anything to hide). But perhaps you cannot be asked to make the effort.

“US investment bank JP Morgan said the chances of Britain calling off Brexit altogether had increased.” []

“JP Morgan economist Malcolm Barr said in a note to clients:“We continue to think it likely that the Commons (UK lower house of parliament) will not give its assent to the agreement on the first attempt (in late November or early December), but… assent will be attained at a second or later attempt (in early to mid-January).”” []

The latter link is from 9th November (I presume it’s the one DP was referring to) and may be a little out of date…especially after the Grieves amendment got approved a few days ago :face_with_monocle:


As you only appear to be able to find “some” articles, here’s the Berenberg information from Shares Magazine, dated 6th December.

Theresa May’s deal is still the most likely Brexit outcome, even if it takes a second vote to pass, according to analysis by investment bank Berenberg. The Brexit question remains one of the UK’s most contentious political decisions in a generation, and the outcome is still very much up for grabs. The Prime Minister’s preferred option is expected to be voted down when MPs decide on the …

Not really very different from the position JPM have held for the lastcouple of months.

Want some more? Search and subscribe, you’ll find them. :roll_eyes::face_with_monocle:


I thought you were talking about JP Morgan…finally we get some clarity. Like blood from a stone…but thanks anyway.