devonplay actually said:
May to (eventually) get her way on Brexit predicts investment bank.
Berenger see success, even if it takes 2 rounds.
That looks to be the consensus amongst investment banks, as far as I can tell.
I’m still expecting a 2nd meaningful vote in January when the deal will pass.

So… JPM client letter have odds of:

no-deal Brexit… 10%
orderly Brexit… 50%
no Brexit…40%

But importantly, latest odds from JW are still:

No Deal… 2%
May Deal (including amendments)… 20%
Another negotiated Deal… 20%
Remain… 58%

Thinking of reducing the “No Deal” to 1% shortly and making the May Deal (including amendments) 19%.


Every day- the tide begins to turn:

Lib Dem MP Stephen Lloyd has quit the party’s group in Parliament so he can vote for Theresa May’s Brexit deal.


Another 100 more like that and it will sail through.


Thanks JW, I finally figured out what he was trying to say. Don’t know why JP Morgan was thrown into the mix…a bit of a red herring. The investment bank was Berenberg and not Berenger (according to his link…useful things links)…but to be honest I’ve not heard of the bank (no matter how it is spelt).

It would be good to know the date of the Berenberg advice note…but I guess that would be expecting too much. The share magazine article might have been written last week (before Grieve’s important amendment was approved) but was only printed today. That’s the problem with making predictions…rapidly changing events can cause predictions to become obsolete very quickly.

When TM’s deal gets voted down next week (assuming it actually takes place) the Grieve’s amendment allows amendments to be tabled that could give Parliament more control of the Brexit process in the future.


Everyday… more reasons turn up why we will be worse off Leaving the EU.

Now… Kent Council:

:: 10,000 extra lorries would have to be “routinely” accommodated in Kent - creating traffic so bad that carers would be unable to reach patients, teachers would struggle to get to schools, and council staff would have to work from home

:: Waste collection could be delayed and disrupted

:: The administration of GCSEs and SATs could be compromised

:: The number of migrants arriving in Kent, including unaccompanied asylum-seeking children, could increase.

Kent Council has already spent more than £20m on reinforcing the region’s roads, and has hired more staff to cope with Brexit-related disruption at a cost of hundreds of thousands of pounds.

Rob Bird, who leads the Liberal Democrat opposition of Kent County Council, said: “The people of Kent did not vote for disruption to food supplies. They did not vote to jeopardise care for society’s most vulnerable or to risk our children’s education. The threats of a no-deal Brexit are very real.”

He also urged the county’s MPs to insist that the government rules out the risk of a no-deal Brexit immediately.

Kent Council said the impacts of a “no-deal” scenario are dependent on further planning assumptions provided by the government and the future UK-EU relationship.

It said any long-term costs of any “new norm” arising from the change to border arrangements, such as infrastructure and staffing, will need to be identified.

The report notes that it is dependent on the government to provide appropriate funding in the situation of a no-deal Brexit, as well as further information and advice on issues including traffic disruption.


Pathetic…both of them!

"Channel 4 has announced it will hold a debate on Sunday featuring neither Mrs May or Mr Corbyn, but “four high profile politicians” - one backing the PM’s deal, one behind a softer Brexit, one for a harder Brexit and one supporting the People’s Vote. "


Day 112

London prepares for a vote.

Paris prepares for a riot.

National identities are forged over millennium.

The EU is nothing but a decades old bureaucracy.

It’s simple really: difference over conformity.

Identity over anomy.

It’s little wonder that riot, populism and civil disobedience are the hallmarks of the failing bureaucracy.

But the bell still clanks, and the sheep are apt to follow.


Council tax payers in Kent must be really worried (pi55ed) about prospects of a ‘No’ deal…looks like the Brexit bonus is costing them already…good luck to them in trying to get compensation from central government for all their ‘No’ deal costs :face_with_monocle:


Day 111

Not much on the Brexit from today, just the usual squall of headlines designed to sell newspapers, but little else.

All eyes are on France today.

I keep wondering if you will be able to see the flames from a high point on Dover Castle, England’s great defender.

Hard Brexit looks more likely every day and a second vote even less so.

Onward the meaningful vote 1 and then Labour’s doomed vote of no confidence.

I wonder how much, if at all, the second successful meaningful vote will differ?


Isn’t it sad when a grown man acts like an adolescent teenager and actually wants there to be fires and violence in another country.


:joy: :laughing: :rofl:

You mean adolescent like a bad loser?

Or should that be adolescent like a Referendum bad loser!



So Berenger (sic) have changed their advice?

“Berenger see success, even if it takes 2 rounds.”


As far as I understand that remains their position.

May’s deal on a 2nd meaningful vote.

Probably In January.

I’m getting more concerned we’ll crash out.

That’s not my preferred option, but if that’s the case, so be it.

As far as a 2nd Referendum is concerned. I just can’t see that happening.

I believe the EU had an informal meeting this week, or are planning one next week, and have again been talking about upping preparations for a Hard Brexit.

There’s a detailed article on Politico EU if your are interested. Before you ask, go find it yourself. It might be in their Brexit Watch section or the main magazine if that helps.

I’d prefer a 2nd meaningful vote, and although they say there’s no wiggle room, May is forced into trying to further renegotiate with the EU beforehand. If that has any success, I expect it to be marginal. But politically necessary.

I can’t see at the momemt Labour winning a Vote of Confidence, and they appear to be still sitting on the fence as far as a 2nd Referendum.

That’s why I’m expecting the same outcome, pass on 2nd meaningful vote.

But, I’m becoming increasingly concerned we’ll crash out.

I know what you are going to say…I don’t share your confidence.

I think I’ve said previously I’d back the May deal, but backslide as much as possible from day one.


DP, my first thought…has your account been hacked by a Remain leaning person.

I thought you were one of those hard Brexiteers who preferred a ‘No’ deal…hence all your fun & games yesterday. But today you’ve had a personality change. The missus put her foot down last night?!..maybe :wink:

I missed your ‘support’ for TM’s deal…but then I don’t follow your every word (naughty me!). Your reference to ‘backsliding’ is also strange…because the UK doesn’t backslide…we always pay our bill…and written into the deal & political statement is the term ‘in good faith’…which doesn’t mean much in practice- especially to ‘some’ European countries - but not the UK…we hate to be accused of double dealing…it’s an insult to our ‘Britishness’ (whatever that is!) :face_with_monocle:


No, I’ve been consistent in expecting May’s deal to pass on a 2nd attempt.

I’m concerned we are heading towards crashing out.

May’s deal is acceptable and I think offers the country and business the stability it desires.

Unlike a 2nd Referendum or General Election. Those would be the worse of all possible worlds. Just more uncertainty and disruption.

At the end of the day I’m a pragmatist. The county has voted, Article 50 has been triggered and it’s time to get on and leave.

I expect us to honour obligations in practical terms, but be decisive about taking opportunity as they arise. That’s honour them in terms that most benefit out national objective. That doesn’t necessarily mean in spirit, so backsliding.

You’re wrong, in “good faith” does mean something in contractual terms, but it doesn’t stop you in practical terms exploring the limits of good faith.

So, I would calling that backsliding, you may call it something else.

I’m sure we all have a different concept of Britishness. Mine includes playing by the rules when it suits us. You could call that the art of diplomacy or double dealing, I call it pragmatism. It requires judgement, of course.

Often when I read comments I wonder if the person postering them has ever been involved in negotiations or had to deal with running anything of size that’s contracted.

Obligation, good faith and in spirit might all be words you’d come across in contract, but like politics and democracy they are more malleable than you first think.

I’m sure as a reasonable person, you can see the sense of backing May’s deal for the stability of the country. Unless, you are one of those “hard remainders”?

It’s time to get on, leave and deal with decisions the county has made.


DP, to me May’s deal is a fudge & leaves a lot of things to be sorted out later…not the ‘nothing is agreed until everything is agreed’. But I always knew that things would be fudged and the UK will always come off worse in any negotiations because we are leaving the EU club and most of the cards are not in our hand. It’s a case of reality over fantasy…finally reality has dawned. If we Leave then TM’s deal is ‘probably’ the best deal we will get from the EU. But it’s not acceptable to Parliament and ‘probably’ never will be, even with some tweaking.

So if TM’s deal fails then how does Parliament prevent a ‘No’ deal…perhaps a Norway type deal. But if there is still no consensus then it may have to go back to the ‘People’ to decide…not perfect perhaps but if MP’s fail in the duty then possibly the only democratic way out of this mess.

‘No’ deal is not an option IMO.

I believe that there is a ‘No’ deal decision point in January (21st??) at which time the government have to fully commit to a ‘No’ deal to give enough time to prepare. So time is running out. Interesting times :face_with_monocle:


BBC - Arron Banks where did you get the £8mill you donated to LEAVE
Arron - Not from the Russians BBC Ok from where ??
BBC - found URAL properties’ and emails telling staff to remove all references to them
Arron - I am uk taxpayer and money comes from my company Rock services
BBC - £2m went from Rock services to LEAVE what abt the other £6M and electoral commission say grounds that criminal offences committed and money may have come from ROCK Holdings IOM
BBC - By Law money must come from UK and be transparent.
BBC - went to ROCK holdings office in IOM found it locked up empty.
BBC - asked Arron Banks for Rock Holdings accounts
Arron - My lawyer’s say I dont need to give you them
BBC - Companies house say different
BBC - went back to Banks IOM but still no joy was refused entry… (to be continued)
Comment welcome from people concerned about democracy if they dont start with WHATABOUT …


Possibly, time will tell.

But, I expect people are still playing “chicken” and see an opportunity to vote again after the initial meaningful voting. (You could see how that is a strategy that could be appealing. Vote against, tweak, re-vote)

Forcing May and EU back to the table. That will satisfy some political objective and possibly other ideological.

With a 2nd meaningful vote in January.

Which might reflect the changes they want.

So, it’s not difficult to understand the noise as it’s not just the Government and EU that are negotiating after all.

And "there’s the rub” , as you might say.

It’s a much higher risk, because if that 2nd vote doesn’t go ahead and we don’t get an agreement in parliament I think it’s inconceivable that a General Election, another round with EU or Referendum could occur in time.

Then we crash out.


What is it about WHATABOUT that you don’t like? Is it the whole concept of whataboutism or just whataboutery? I mean what’s the problem with what about? What, if we decided to use kettle calling the pot black as an alternative to what about. What would your view be on that? What do you say? :wink:


In that scenario we would ‘probably’ ask for an extension in article 50…but the EU would only allow it (IMO) if there was a real chance that it would end the deadlock in the UK Parliament (not guaranteed).

Parliament may instead go for the ‘Norway’ type deal in an attempt to resolve the deadlock and avoid a ‘No’ deal.

A lot of problems are caused by the behaviour of Labour (IMO)…who seem to be trying to profit from the Conservative mess. They are as guilty of creating uncertainty as the Tories IMO. Interesting times :face_with_monocle: