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Financing Phase 3

lse:fum

#1

It seems to me that raising the cash to see fum through phase 3 is a major problem at this share price. Any thoughts??
I can’t see any way without serious dilution which means that it is a dead duck!!
I was tempted to buy more but without a feasible way to raise sufficient cash I’m sitting on the fence for now.


#2

How much do they need to complete part 1 of phase 3? Costs for part 1 of phase 3 = 8 million dolllars which is just over £6 million.
Current cash levels = just under £7 million
Allow £3 million for other operating costs meaning they need around £3 million


#3

Are there no forward-looking pharma companies out there? I would have thought that stumping up a couple of million quid to see FUM through phase 3 while having first refusal on the product (if proven, as it will be) would be a worthwhile gamble.


#4

Maybe a rights issue at 10p?


#5

i think its more their risk appetite rather than whether they are forward thinking. The pharma companies have all the same info as us, plus more and have decided not to proceed at this stage. What we can speculate in is whether this is because they have no confidence in the product or whether the price to pay was too high for this stage of the proceedings.
The current sp levels deffinitely don’t help but as I’ve suggested before, fum board would have been aware of the consequences of no deal (but perhaps not predicting down to these levels?), but when they did the calcs, presumably they would have run a dilution scenario and figured that we would all be better off pursing this option of carrying on alone.


#6

Assuming £6 or £7m in cash (albeit earmarked for phase 3) we are now a penny or two away from being valued at zero if 10p = roughly £10m valuation? Basically the market views the products and IP as worthless?


#7

Either we are all fools, or we’ve got a bargain here.

I forgot what a communications black hole fum is…


#8

I just struggle to see where the extra money needed will come from. Like a rights issue at 10p isn’t going to do much.

Hopefully someone will back us after a positive part 1 of the phase 3 trials.

Am I right in thinking part 1 of the trials will finish next December? Or is that when the final study finishes?


#9

I think that is the story behind the new comms company. Tasked with finding an investor:/ partner. If you look at what they are mainly doing with existing clients it seems to be more matchmaking. Several pharma investment vehicles rather than just broader investors (like Octopus AIM vct at the moment). Not sure if Aberdeen agreed with this, but I think they might be looking for a partner like that. Thoughts?


#10

I’m assuming that a loan wouldn’t be an option, so whatever means they have for raising extra money is going to be a dilution of some sort - either a share dilution, or they get a percentage of profits on a successful outcome (which in effect is a dilution of sorts)…

Frustratingly if csd 500 were commercial, this wouldn’t be an issue…

Perhaps an option is to sell csd500 (arguably a dilution in the product portfolio and future profits) to raise the cash for med2000 but that would feel like putting all eggs in one basket so probably not a great plan. Feels a bit like a rock and a hard place at the moment.

The board have demonstrated that they have the will to push on alone if necessary, but have they backed themselves up against a wall this time??


#11

It’s all just been a big bluff by JB to get another few million for the upfront payment for the combined med / csd deal with Pfizer. And then I woke up…


#12

Was reading an interesting article on clinical trial sucess rates today.

On all diseases from 2006-2015 the probability of success was:

  • Phase 1 to approval - 9.6%

  • Phase 1 to phase 2 - 63.2%

  • Phase 2 to phase 3 - 30.7%

  • Phase 3 to NDA/BLA - 58.1%

  • NDA/BLA to approval - 85.3%

This was for all diseases, out of the certain categories it gives urology covers us best and in that category the probability was:

  • Phase 2 success - 33%

  • Phase 3 success - 71%

So hopefully we’re over the worst stage for us now and people should be confident in the product performing well in the trials.

The only worry for us at the moment is funding, a lot of people have been mentioning we need 3 million more, I’ve been struggling to find anywhere of how much the phase 3 trials would roughly cost us.

If you want a link to the arcticle I’ve read it’s here: https://www.bio.org/sites/default/files/Clinical%20Development%20Success%20Rates%202006-2015%20-%20BIO,%20Biomedtracker,%20Amplion%202016.pdf


#13

Great figures, and statistics are on our side. However, I can understand the market stance - why would they invest when funding is a big question mark and had been mentioned in the last 2 RNS’s followed by radio silence. Best wait and see what the answer is. As a PI however, sometimes time is on our side so fantastic opportunity now before any rises. But then again they may think the sp will drop once funding announced formally as well.

Is anyone aware of a pi that has formed a relationship with jb where he responds to emails? Quite a few peed people on lse not getting responses. My recollection was this was fairly standard from fum.

My personal view is that as soon as there is a game plan which is communicated, the sp will react positively (even if an initial downward blip).


#14

I might be wrong but I think a few on this board have got responses from JB, personally I think if they’re busy they should have better things to be spending their time on. Let’s hope the silence now means they’re doing their best.


#15

Up until the appointment (in August or that is first RNS that mentioned them) of the new comms company he answered all within days if not same day.
At first I thought he must have been on holiday. Now you get no answer or vanilla from the comms co.
Something has changed.
I never tried to email the (new) director.


#16

Quite a lot of vitriol on LSE forum. No one seems to be getting any response from FUM and apparently the phone number published for the comms company on the website did not work! Assumed we would get an update when first patient dosed which should have happened within month of the infamous September interview. It does seem that this one is going to bomb completely. Wondering if they are scrapping phase 3 and winding it up!


#17

First candidate for phase 3 enrolled, RNS today. Significant milestone achieved, more to follow! :clap::clap:
TP


#18

Agreed. Good to get the ball moving on this one and start looking ahead again.