Some interesting figures in this Bloomberg article worth commenting on.
The below gives some idea of what we can expect in the battery space. EVs, according to Bloomberg, account for about 100 GWh at the moment rising to about 600 GWh by 2025. EVs will have accounted for 4% to 5% of annual nickel consumption of 2.2m tonnes in 2018. That amounts to 88,000 to 110,000 tonnes. In 2025, all things being equal, that will rise to somewhere between 528,000 and 660,000 tonnes of nickel according to Bloomberg’s figures.
The article then goes on to predict the expected uptake of EVs from now all the way through to 2040.
The above graph predicts 2.19m new EVs being bought in 2018 (I’ve assumed the date refers to the number bought in the previous 12 months). The estimate, IMO, is a little bit on the high side. I’m expecting somewhere around 2.05m. Its reasonably easy to estimate 2018 given that the year is finished and the sales figures for most of the year known. What’s an awful lot harder to predict are the years ahead.
According to Bloomberg 2025 will see 10.63m new EVs that year
In 2030 29.910m.
2035 and 2040 shows a much higher number of EVs being bought but its not only these numbers that are of interest. According to current predictions global temperatures are set to rise by 1.5ºC in 12 years if we do nothing to curb carbon emissions. In 2030 its predicted that over 75m ICE powered cars will be sold worldwide. That’s only 15m less than 2018.
ICE powered vehicles are one of the, if not the, largest contributor to green-house gas emissions. We will not get global temperature under control if we are still producing 75m+ ICE vehicles in 2030.
The uptake of EVs will have to be an awful lot faster than Bloomberg is predicting if we are going to stop global warming. I’m predicting over twice the number of EVs being bought in 2025 than the number Bloomberg is suggesting. That’s potentially 1m to to 1.3m tonnes of nickel in that year.