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Global EVs

lse:amc

#3

This is interesting.

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/rise-electric-vehicle/

Visual Capitalist is predicting a global EV fleet of 200m vehicles by 2025. That’s roughly in line with the sorts of figures I’m predicting. The graph they’ve produced isn’t particularly accurate, the scale suggests by the end of 2018 there will be somewhere in the region of 25m to 30m EVs on the road and that’s simply not true. The 200m figure by 2025 is still possible however especially when you consider this.

THE WATER DROPLET ANALOGY

One famous example of exponential growth is the water droplet and stadium analogy.

Imagine a giant football stadium, and you are sitting in the very highest seat. You can see the whole field.

In the middle of the stadium, there are drops of water falling at an increasing rate. In the first minute a single drop of water falls, in the second minute there are two drops of water added, and in the third minute, there are four drops of water, and so on. The rate doubles each minute.

When do you think the stadium is full of water? Does it take hours, days, or weeks?

For the first 30 minutes, not much seems to happen – there is a growing puddle, but it’s not likely something you can see from the very top seat. After 45 minutes the stadium is still 93% empty – but by 49 minutes, the entire stadium is full of water (and you’re swimming)!

EV sales figures for the month just finished for the US should start feeding through early next week and global figures for August by the middle of the month. Percentage increases on the previous years figures will tell us where this is all going.

TDT :sunglasses:


#4

Global EV sales for August 2018 were released today which is much earlier than expected. In total 172,400 EVs sold in that month. That’s a 65% increase in the number of EVs sold this time last and a 64% year on year increase to date. The total for the year, at the current rate of adoption, will be in the region of 2.0m to 2.05m

TDT :sunglasses:


#5

“This raises the risk that forecasts may be underestimating the scale of growth in EVs, as well as in lithium-ion batteries.”

That sounds just about right to me.

This is still the most compelling argument I’ve come across.

When you consider that the adoption rates for the items Tony Seba highlights as examples are largely consumer products you have to wonder if EVs will follow a similar path.

None of the items in the above example were subsidised and none of them were supplanting older technologies that were damaging to human health and the environment. It will be interesting to see what impact these factors have, if any, on the adoption rate profile.

TDT :sunglasses:


#6

According to a report by Morgan Stanley: “As many as one billion battery electric vehicles (BEVs) could be on the road throughout the world by 2050.”

I don’t expect I’ll be around to see that but that’s going to take an awful lot of nickel to achieve, assuming of course that by 2050 nickel still figures in EV batteries.

TDT :sunglasses:


#7

This web site is worth keeping tabs on if you want to keep on top of the most recent developments in the EV market.

https://mailchi.mp/c1fe9ac3b962/top-5-electric-vehicle-news-stories-of-week-43-2018?e=2b64fffa17

TDT :sunglasses:


#8

Global EV sales for the month of September has just been posted. 200,500 EVs of various descriptions sold in that month which is largely in line with predictions (4,425 less than predicted to be precise). So far 1,267,604 EVs have been sold in 2018 with, traditionally, the three busiest months of the year still to go. Global sales for 2018 still on track for recording 2m+.

That’s the largest monthly figure for global sales ever recorded beating the previous highest monthly total by over 16%.

America starts reporting EV sales for October today. Anything above 35,000 for the month would be a good result.

TDT :sunglasses:


#9

32,152 EVs reported sold in the USA for the month of October so far with another 11 models left still to report. The total looks like its going to be just under 34,000 which isn’t bad given October is a much slower month than both August and September. It will still be the third highest month for EV sales ever recorded in America.

Predictions for November 37,000 to 38,000 and for December 55,000 to 56,000. Total for the USA in 2018 should be 360,000, the total worldwide 2,010,000.

TDT :sunglasses:


#10

The total for the uptake of EVs for October in the USA topped out at 34,094. Uptake of EVs globally for 2018, if it does top out a 2,010,000, would represent a 64% increase on 2017. At the same uptake 2019 should see approximately 3.3m, 2020 - 5.5m, 2021 - 9.0m. Once we start getting to totals as high as 9m it will significantly impact the amount of nickel needed. 9m EVs will need somewhere in the region of 150,000 to 175,000 tonnes of nickel.

For anybody interested.

TDT :sunglasses:


#11

That last post was wrong. I’ve just checked the InsideEV web site again and it looks like it has incorrectly reported the number of EVs sold worldwide in October. The figure is not 280,800 as originally reported but 208,800. I guess it was too good to be true.

The corrected spread sheet isn’t quite so impressive but still respectable nonetheless.

TDT


#12

This is what’s going to drive the rapid uptake of EVs.

“This is a prime example of an ambition loop – a virtuous cycle where clear government policies and ambitious business initiatives work together to fuel prosperity as they set higher goals to curb carbon dioxide emissions.”

The above article has an embedded link that some might miss but read this, see below, if you read nothing else on Green Energy or EV’s this year.

This year we should see 2.02m EVs sold world wide, next year 3.35m, in 2020 - 5.5m, 2021- 9m, 2022 - 15m, 2023 - 25m.

TDT :sunglasses:


#13

Global EV sales for the month of November have just been published at 237,553. That’s a 60% increase in the same month last year. The total for the first 11 months of 2018 now stands at 1,713,957 vehicles or 63.2% more than for the same period in 2017. It looks like we will just sneak over the 2m mark for the year.

The first couple of months of 2019 should give us some idea on whether the exponential uptake of EVs is going to continue at the 60% CAGR we’ve seen to date. If it does then 3.2m to 3.35m EVs will be the target for the year. It will, however, be 2021 and beyond when EVs will really start to significantly impact demand for nickel. That should just about coincide with Amur pushing the button on production starting at Kun Manie.

TDT :sunglasses:


#14

A few more all electric vehicles coming to the market in 2019.

Bigger choice means more sales, means demand for nickel increases.

Draw down of nickel from the LME may have slowed but its still going down. Currently 207,330 tonnes in the LME which is a drop of 6,240 tonnes in one month. Still reasonable.

TDT :sunglasses:


#15

Some interesting figures in this Bloomberg article worth commenting on.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-18/in-the-switch-to-electric-vehicles-expect-a-few-giants-to-crash

The below gives some idea of what we can expect in the battery space. EVs, according to Bloomberg, account for about 100 GWh at the moment rising to about 600 GWh by 2025. EVs will have accounted for 4% to 5% of annual nickel consumption of 2.2m tonnes in 2018. That amounts to 88,000 to 110,000 tonnes. In 2025, all things being equal, that will rise to somewhere between 528,000 and 660,000 tonnes of nickel according to Bloomberg’s figures.

The article then goes on to predict the expected uptake of EVs from now all the way through to 2040.

The above graph predicts 2.19m new EVs being bought in 2018 (I’ve assumed the date refers to the number bought in the previous 12 months). The estimate, IMO, is a little bit on the high side. I’m expecting somewhere around 2.05m. Its reasonably easy to estimate 2018 given that the year is finished and the sales figures for most of the year known. What’s an awful lot harder to predict are the years ahead.

According to Bloomberg 2025 will see 10.63m new EVs that year

In 2030 29.910m.

2035 and 2040 shows a much higher number of EVs being bought but its not only these numbers that are of interest. According to current predictions global temperatures are set to rise by 1.5ºC in 12 years if we do nothing to curb carbon emissions. In 2030 its predicted that over 75m ICE powered cars will be sold worldwide. That’s only 15m less than 2018.

ICE powered vehicles are one of the, if not the, largest contributor to green-house gas emissions. We will not get global temperature under control if we are still producing 75m+ ICE vehicles in 2030.

The uptake of EVs will have to be an awful lot faster than Bloomberg is predicting if we are going to stop global warming. I’m predicting over twice the number of EVs being bought in 2025 than the number Bloomberg is suggesting. That’s potentially 1m to to 1.3m tonnes of nickel in that year.

TDT :sunglasses:


#16

For anybody interested.

The 2019/20 years will be the critical ones for determining where the uptake of EVs is going.

TDT :sunglasses:


#17

The USA has just about finished reporting EV sales for January 2019 and they’ve come in considerably lower than expected. With only a couple of manufacturers left to report it looks like the total is going to struggle to break 17k. This begs the question, where have all the Tesla’s gone? According to the Inside EVs web site Tesla sold 8,325 EVs of all models in the USA in January yet Tesla production figures for the month, according to Bloomberg, were around 4 times that number.

Have they been shipped to China and Europe?

TDT :sunglasses:


#18

It looks like Tesla is shipping to China and Europe.

TDT :sunglasses:


#19

This is interesting.

“New energy vehicles accounted for just over 4% of all 28.1 million automobiles sold in China last year. That’s a higher rate than the US (under 2%), and Europe (just over 3%). But it’s not high enough to satisfy the Chinese government. Last April it announced ambitious targets of 10% for conventional passenger cars in 2019, rising to 12% in 2020.”

That means China should sell about 2.8m EVs in 2019. If Europe show a modest increase of say 30% they should sell 550k and, likewise, the same for the USA they should record 450k. In total that would mean 3.8m for 2019 which is almost twice the number sold in 2018.

TDT :sunglasses:


#20

This is the current prediction from EV-Volumes.

Exponential Growth of Sales and Fleet

By the end of 2018, the plug-in vehicle population reached around 5,4 million worldwide, an increase of 64 % over 2017. Still, the impact on the total vehicle stock will be hardly noticeable in most countries. 5,4 million plug-ins on a global light vehicle population of around 1,3 billion is just 0,4 %, one in 250. Growth is exponential, though, and the overall picture will change much faster than historic sales suggest. Adoption of successful technology is along S-curves, not straight lines.

For 2019 we expect plug-in sales to grow by another 52 % and reach 3,2 million units globally. China is likely to strengthen its significance further and reach 2 million sales. For Europe we expect 540-580 000 units and for the US 440-480 000 units. The 3,2 million units include passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles. It converts to a share of 3,4 % in a total light vehicle market of 93,4 million units, -1,5 % lower than 2018. 69 % of the 2019 volume are expected to be BEVs. The global fleet reaches 8,5 million under these conditions.

Can’t disagree with any of that. On the basis that EV’s used 65,000 tonnes of class 1 nickel last year this year should see that figure at around 100,000 tonnes. That’s starting to move into the realm where it will start to positively impact price.

TDT :sunglasses:


#21

An Inconvenient Truth For The Global Auto Industry: Electric Cars Are Not Selling In 2019

I haven’t seen global figures for either January or February yet so its difficult to tell where things are at in terms of numbers and the relative increase/decrease over last year. The article quotes 72,175 EVs being sold in China in January 2019. If this is correct that puts the global sales for that months at about 115,000 which would be about a 45% increase in EVs sold worldwide since this time last year.

If 45% CAGR is correct then sales of EVs are not slowing down according to the first months statistics.

TDT :sunglasses:


#22

Eventually, only the US will sell cars powered by fossil fuels

New York City says electric cars are now the cheapest option for its fleet

TDT :sunglasses: