This is interesting.
Visual Capitalist is predicting a global EV fleet of 200m vehicles by 2025. That’s roughly in line with the sorts of figures I’m predicting. The graph they’ve produced isn’t particularly accurate, the scale suggests by the end of 2018 there will be somewhere in the region of 25m to 30m EVs on the road and that’s simply not true. The 200m figure by 2025 is still possible however especially when you consider this.
THE WATER DROPLET ANALOGY
One famous example of exponential growth is the water droplet and stadium analogy.
Imagine a giant football stadium, and you are sitting in the very highest seat. You can see the whole field.
In the middle of the stadium, there are drops of water falling at an increasing rate. In the first minute a single drop of water falls, in the second minute there are two drops of water added, and in the third minute, there are four drops of water, and so on. The rate doubles each minute.
When do you think the stadium is full of water? Does it take hours, days, or weeks?
For the first 30 minutes, not much seems to happen – there is a growing puddle, but it’s not likely something you can see from the very top seat. After 45 minutes the stadium is still 93% empty – but by 49 minutes, the entire stadium is full of water (and you’re swimming)!
EV sales figures for the month just finished for the US should start feeding through early next week and global figures for August by the middle of the month. Percentage increases on the previous years figures will tell us where this is all going.