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Has everyone sold out?

lse:pmo

#1

Oil appears to be range bound, PMO is going nowhere until the company makes a clear statement on whether they are going to raise cash from the downtrodden shareholders for a purchase of some North Sea assets.
The US China talks are rumbling on in the background, the Venezuela standoff continues, global growth continues to be downgraded, today’s UK GDP figures were poor, Brexit, the dollar continues to strengthen making oil more expensive for the developing economies that are the key to support the demand side of the curve, all in all it’s hard to find any near-term positives that might propel the oil price North.

Then we have the U.S. slowly increasing their market share at the expense of Russia and OPEC with their discounted variants.
How long will the cartel and friends put up with that?
The pipeline will be up and running in the summer meaning more cheap shale oil could potentially hit the market.
Who would have thought the yanks would become a net exporter of oil?

Good luck all.


#2

I think it’s bumbling around its low point at the moment. Likely a time to buy if you’re contrarian.


#3

Still here, currently waiting impatiently for Premier to provide equity holders with a clear vision for delivering shareholder value.

There’s certainly an observable slowdown in many major economies, the optimist in me hopes its just a soft spot, but time will tell.


#4

So there is life?

John,
I’m a contrarian but won’t be buying just yet, a nice rise today though to entice a few of the onlookers.
Oil tried its hardest to break out of the range but once again failed despite the Saudis saying they will cut further.

Beatley,
Optimism shouldn’t be relied on, realism based on facts is the way forward.

So a slight draw today according to the API, not surprisingly it did nothing for the oil price given the Venezuelan oil parked up that was due to be delivered to the U.S. (see link).
With daily protests, inflation running at an estimated 1,000,000% something will give and soon.
When it does oil may not be the place to be if the yanks decide to “help” the Venezuelan people!
I see the opposition leader, president elect, has given an 11 day ultimatum today to allow US aid into the country, very generous of the yanks.

Good luck


#5

Realism based on facts, gotcha. And there was me thinking forecasting global GDP and the impact on oil demand was a difficult thing to do for a part time investor with a full time job.

Venezuela could be bearish or bullish for oil prices depending on how things transpire. US shale has certainly allowed their foreign policy to be firmer with certain countries, who would have thought they’d be sanctions on both Iran and Venezuela and the oil price would still be in the low $60.’s. But are they biting on more than they chew?! Answers coming to an oil market near you when seasonal demand starts to increase.


#6


#7

PMO generating fcf circa 1.8m usd a day. Not far off the company cap. Funny old world. C’mon GK find the negative :kissing_heart:


#8

So if you had the readies & bought Pmo you’d get your money in just over a year, based on current fcf. Don’t need an mba to see deep value


#9

Money back…


#10

Hi Diesel, how do you get the $1.8m per day fcf?


#11

Easy calc Beatley. From jan update we know that fcf point is usd45 a barrel. From Jan rns we know that pmo production is 90k bopd. We also know that 30% production is hedged at usd69. So assuming average sp is usd65, fcf is 20usd a barrel x 90,000= 1.8m usd fcf !
With pmo Mkt cap at 600m gbp, within 18 months current cash flow would buy the business. Fancy getting a whip round going ?


#12

Hi Diesel, you need to take into account the mix of Oil and Gas that we produce. Current UK gas prices are about 46p per therm, so about $26 per barrel of oil equivalent, not sure about the Gas we produce elsewhere.


#13

Broad brush calculation, but the results are clear


#14

Diesel,
When you state production at 90k was would be more appropriate than is, full year guidance is 75k but I guess you know that.

Don’t you just love the phrase “free cash flow”?
Does that figure include servicing the debt?

That brings me on to the next point, will the debt suddenly disappear if the company is taken over?
No, I didn’t think so.

Maybe you should avoid such broad brush calculations before posting next time.

On a more positive note, Brent has closed above the recent range, will it hold though?
I’ll be watching closely in the morning.

Good luck all, you deserve it.


#15

Gk, fella you are so predictable.

I gave my sources, which as you know are from jan update & more recent rns. Jan production running at 90k bopd, so if you do the Calc you will get the same fcf as I posted. Either way as you surprisingly pointed out oil price is in a higher range. (With your usual caveat).


#16

I just got bored of posting mainly due to GK who would lead us to believe is neither long nor short or has no personal vendetta but nevertheless used to fill his days posting the same old bearish and/or negative stories about Oil and specifically about Premier.

For someone to take so much time posting on a stock they are not interested in either buying or selling just doesn’t tally with me.

Equally, for me no point repeating things that previously posted. Anyway, oil looking a bit better after the Q4 collapse but cannot say the same about gas. You win some, you lose some.


#17

Perhaps another small positive is that Whitebox Advisors added an additional 0.3% short last Friday and are already down over 10%. Win some, lose some !


#18

Lots, I agree with your sentiments. I’m always open to opposing opinions & also find unfounded optimism grating, but the relentless drip of biased negativity from GK is dull to say the least. To be honest I can’t be bothered to indulge him by reading his posts,.

I wonder what happened to last call, unfortunately for me as a turkey his call was bang on but worth the entertainment value


#19

Maybe we’re the fools for replying to his thread and entertaining him in the first place, especially as his only calls are negative macro ones and nothing to do with PMO’s fundementals. Will refrain in future.


#20

So is slowly building, surely TD needs to kick it in the crackers by bringing up Chevron… again…if he does surely it would need to be an eon type deal to get a positive response.
On a positive note oil, price continues breaking higher, hope it gets back to the 70-75 price band & Pmo should get pulled up by its coattails.