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I had a DREAM

lse:lloy

#21

Hi BrownAdder

I got all the time in the world here

I am holding a fair amount in cash today though

2019 will see off Brexit and PPI so expect a big bounce over the next few months :slight_smile:


#22

Why should he not average up? Surely a much better strategy than spending 11 months trying to guess a market bottom?


#23

no body knows market bottom
to me its unlikey to go as high up as he’s dreaming
and very unlikely to go further down as down as people expect.
49-56 is a fine range to buy LLOY
exit with 10% plus divi
thats a lot in the year ahead


#24

The Dividend is my bread and butter


#25

UK house prices grew at an annual pace of 0.5% in December, the Nationwide building society has said, the slowest annual rate since February 2013.


#26

Strange the gradual increase from 49.7p to 54p for no real apparent reason other than that as previously stated the company seems significantly undervalued based on likely profits next year/dividend/and end of PPI.

Lets hope those ‘shorters’ have been well and truly caught out. As we lead up to results in Feb & the big IF a Brexit deal can be agreed by the MP muppets this will defo rise over 60p+.


#27

LLOY has riden a wave of optimism since 27 December that trade tensions with China are easing. The receding chances of a Hard Brexit are almost certainly another factor behind the rise.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#28

Certainly this baby slowly moving up now :slight_smile:


#29

whats the direct exposure of LLOY to US China Trade - that’s news


#30

Hi Brown Adder

I think I said on another thread that with the optimism that the US China trade war might be easing that the markets have risen, LLOY also. LLOY is of course domestically focussed but none the less it is still dependent on the health of the UK economy as a whole. But I also said that the receding chances of a hard brexit are also certainly a factor.

Cheers,

Frog


#31

Would be interested to understand why you think there is a receding chance of a Hard Brexit?

Surely next week vote is doomed which leaves us heading for a No Deal?


#32

The two defeats in the Commons are designed to empower MPs to stop a Hard Brexit and there is no conceivable majority for a hard brexit in parliament or the country.

Frog in a tree


#33

Why ?

Why would you want shorters to lose.?
Does it make you feel better to see people lose?

I get no pleasure from that.

LLOY is not really a shorters favourite but when it was 72/67 and many were predicting 80/90/100 some clever people were laying in short.

With the close at 54.71 how have they lost ?
How have they affected any long term investors ?

Are you sitting in loss and looking for someone else to blame ?

soi


#34

SOI, the point I was making is as a long holder I obviously want the SP to recover to a more realistic level in line with what should be a ‘normal’ value for a company likely to make 6 to 8bn£ next year. Clearly as a long holder it is to my advantage if ‘shorters’ lose out as that means the SP must be increasing.

With the SP at 54.71p there may well have been shorters when the SP had fallen sub 50p thinking it was going to go lower.

Still finding it hard to understand the recovery in SP though with Brexit vote doomed this week.


#35

I’ve just seen “3-1 odds” of a hard brexit pop up on the BBC news in the office. Do you really think TM has made enough changes to get her proposal through…?


#36

It seems very likely that the Commons would move to close down the possibility of a hard Brexit. In my view the solutions lie in Norway type of agreement or a second referendum. The momentum of opinion is not supportive of any kind of Brexit, especially a no deal Brexit.

Frog in a tree


#37

Thanks frog - fyi that post has been under review for 4 days just in case you were wondering why I was asking after PHILKES had already asked the question!


#38

To deal with your last point. I don’t think the recovery from 49.51 to 54 has anything to do with Brexit, PPI or shorters. The reason is we had a 20% correction just after Christmas and a near face - ripping 10% bounce. I really feel people are making a mistake trying to relate news events to market moves.

Regarding shorters, how do you know they were shorters and not just sellers?


#39

Macbonzo you are right I don’t know whether they were shorters or sellers.

In terms of news events I do believe the SP of Lloyds is closely linked to whatever Brexit outcome is achieved. Should there be some form of acceptable agreement & orderly departure I can se the SP climbing rapidly to 60p+ However if there is any potential of a Labour govt or No Deal departure I think we will be looking at sub 50p again.