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Last man standing?

lse:deb

#1

Debenhams, M&S and John Lewis to pluck up most of House Of Fraser?s street custom?


#2

I don’t feel that the HoF customer is going to migrate to Debenhams; probably more of an opportunity for John Lewis.


#3

I think that the HoF closures will definitely mean some shoppers who otherwise would have gone to HoF will come to Deb. On the flip sides some shoppers may now not even bother coming to the town centre at all due to there not being enough stores to entice them in.

What I think more though is that Deb.l actually needs to do something radical. HoF is likely to see around 25% rent reductions on existing stores through the CVA, Deb should be doing the same and probably closing loss making stores. Everybody talks about online being a big cause, and I don’t deny it hasn’t helped. But there are more factors at play here:

  • Debenhams brand being tired and confused
  • Stores, inventory and staff are not inspiring enough for consumers
  • Business rates makes running a department store incredibly expensive
  • Consumers just are not as interested in spending a saturday afternoon shopping as they once were, at least not unless the store offers them an experience that they can’t get online
  • While in many ways I agree with raising minimum wages it is having a huge impact on retail companies.

I want to see radical action from Deb including a slashing of rents.


#4

Source was a twitter link on Guardian.com

M&S stands to gain most, in terms of clothing sales, from House of Fraser closures, followed by Debenhams


#5

Don’t see what a rubbish poundshop closing that has been loss-making for years, had far too many outlets and was poorly run has to do with Debenhams but hey ho the shorters used their magic powers to automatically collapse the SP by 5% today. FCA WTF are you doing and what do you get paid for?


#6

Management claim Debenhams only have one loss making store. Only they really know. Fundamentals now showing DEB is trading close to a P/E of 5. I suspect full year dividend will be halved to 1.7p from 3.4p but even this is now yielding almost 9% (!)


#7

DEB…
XXXXX
Interesting KNIGELK over on LSE likes Debenhams.
I confused it with House of Fraser.
But see here they where rivals .


#8

DEB…
XXXX
RNS … Looking at closing stores , on radio news its dropped 20 %


#9

Seems very hard to understand? - Magasin du Nord can be worth £200M but Debenhams is worth less that £200M !! - which means they have negative value -even with a surplus of £80M sloshing around in the pension fund!


#10

We have yet to see any offer for Magasin du Nord;the price is merely speculation.Any surplus in the pension fund does not belong to the company until all pension claims have been met.I doubt if it is in surplus on a third party buy out basis.
Debenhams has one problem that over rides any others.Its long property leases.It has off balance sheet liabilities of future rentals on leases that cannot be cancelled or varied without the permission of its landlords of in excess of £4 billion plus upward only increases mainly based on RPI,many of these run for over 20 years.It is also liable for rates & maintaining the properties during the course of the leases.
This means that Debenhams cannot close,relocate or downsize it stores in most cases.As its landlords would have difficulty in renting the stores to other parties they are unlikely to agree.
It is likely in the future that Debenhams may have to be restructured to amend its property costs to meet present needs.This may have to be done by a CVA with creditors (mainly landlords).Whilst Debenhams has potential future value once restructured in its brandname,online sales and probably in a fit for present purpose bricks & mortar stores.It is difficult to see present value in the shares as refinancing will probably be required.Smaller private investors could be very vulnerable as they could be cut out of a refinancing.

Present shareholders who have lost most of the value of their investment may understandably think we might as well hang on and see what happens & I wish them well but I feel I think it is very risky to buy these shares presently.


#11

Fair comment!
Talk of a CVA is ominous, however Debenhams have been quite good at sub-letting space in their shops to generate income - sometimes to external brands, and the talk of putting in IT work-spaces was quite a good idea as it will be in town-centres. But perhaps they need to look at subletting to Gyms, which is the current fashion for generating revenue from empty town centre space.

  • So the space is then an asset not a liability,
    (and they could even sell sports wear to the people who left theirs at home!)

#12

DEB…
XXXXX
Nice rise here today up 21 %… 15th
And another 11 % this morning Friday 16th Nov 18 . ( 7p )


#13

DEB…
XXXX
Looks like a traders punt big moves each day .
Punt @ 5 /6 p ? Read Odey has "all the shorts " value will be eradicated if CVA happens ,
Punters hoping for a takeover , Ashley ? Read he is mates with Odey


#14

DEB…
XXXX
Bought a few for a punt here today ( 1/2 ) 5.5p … lc very keen .


#15

Looks like Debenhams are following my advice! -I went past their large store on my high street last week, and saw they are turning the bottom floor into a gym! I Hope they can turn a profit with some new year gym memberships!

I’ve always thought DEB could be adaptable in making use of their prime high-street spaces, and this seems like another good example. -I hope they can keep creditors a bay long enough to reinvent themselves again.


#16

DEB…
XXXX
Bought a few more for a punt here today ( 1/2 ) 4.7 p 9.15 am … lc "not worried ".
( before his Christmas break Sunday 16th ) ASOS bad news yesterday Monday 17th .
They could be bought for 4.5p by 3.30pm .


#17

DEB…
XXXX
Top faller Christmas eve - 20% @ 9 am trades 3.26p & 3.57p .
Closed at mid day + 5.17% @ 4.11p.
Nice present for some brave enough to top up early .


#18

DEB…
XXXXX
Finished @ 5.65 yesterday .
Today’s awaited trading RNS came this morning, posters after 7.30 am on lse were saying sharp move down ?
A little rise at open but fell back to yesterdays closing level by 8.30 am
Down 7.55% @ 11am for now looking like lse posters called it about right, but marginal not sharp .
Well the Friday made them right down 18% to 3.91p


#19

Are you still holding on here Ripley?
This seems more a toss of a coin gamble than an investment but i keep looking. No news about ongoing financing/landlord discussions…


#20

Hi rob .
Yes but i think it was a mistake to buy .
( A Friends suggestion although i pick a few losers without any help lol )