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LLOY - Share buyback 2019

lse:lloy

#171

Pref - Moto G5 and a Lenovo Laptop, 3rd one which always seem bullet proof. I had an iPhone some years back and didn’t really see the point, as it was quite slow, limited battery life and relatively simplistic interface. I also didn’t see the need to pay 3 times what I did for a phone which had a higher equivalent spec. I also tend not to pay for Apps so I was not a good customer for the AppStore or iTunes which tends to lock your content up in knots, and it’s difficult to move it from device to device. There was also no interface reason for me to link it up because I have a Windows machine. Being a Microsoft investor and user for 15 years I see no need to move away from it’s platform, office software and cloud solutions.

I bought Apple at the $90 level as it seemed ridiculously oversold, but having sold over a half of it at a 128% gain, the rest I hold isn’t the bargain it was, especially considering they have suffered a 30% decline in iPhone sales in one year. I also own Skyworks which is a chip supplier to Apple + others and they report earnings after close tonight so fingers are crossed.

A friend of mine has a similar set up to you, iPhone/Ipad etc and he said to me that each new upgrade has introduced a plethora of software bugs, things he never witnessed when Jobs was in charge. I don’t know how serious they are, and it may not matter in the grand scheme of things but it’s not a good sign.

Games


#172

Hi @Gamesinvestor1, Well I am a long time Windows/Office user as well and I confess that I find the user interface on the Apple devices a bit strange at times. However the games are cheap (and critically are the same as the grandkids have at home) but we also have an xBox for more sophisticated gaming.

I can also access the web with the same browser and bookmarks on all platforms, use Office, share files and access my calendar between my PCs/iPads/iPhone. And I haven’t encountered many bugs at all really, but then my usage tends to be tightly limited to the above. Also I find the iPad convenient for browsing and playing games while in bed – but I guess a laptop would be just as good for that.

I have no doubt that there are many other ways to do the things I do, but I am happy with my solution and feel no pressing need to change. I have had the iPhone for several years now and its still fast enough, hey when your browsing its only your internet speed that really matters anyway. Similarly my iPads are at least 2 years old, one considerably more than that and I cant remember when I bought that. As I said I think the arrival of 5G will likely be the trigger for my next purchase.

I am sure that your solution is just fine too. I’m sure if it didn’t do all the things you need then you’d pretty soon change !.

ATB

Pref


#173

Could we be looking at low 68bn shares in issue assuming an average buy back price of say 63p (using the FT’s 70.83bn shares outstanding)?


#174

The average price paid to date is 63.69p. There is a further £1.375bn left in the buyback pot, which would equate to 2.159bn shares assuming the average price paid so far is maintained. This would reduce the shares in issue to 68.644bn, assuming that no new shares are issued.

In the 2018 buyback, 1.577bn shares were bought back over 113 trading days, however over the same period a further 623m new shares were issued. If the 2019 buyback takes the same length of time, and a similar number of new shares are issued, then the total number of shares in issue will be reduced to 69.267bn shares. As far as I can see so far in the 2019 buyback 41.5m new shares have been issued over 44 trading days, but the new shares are not issued at a constant rate so these data are not a reliable indicator of the rate of issuance.

Consequently it looks unlikely we will get to the low 68bn level, unless the sp collapses (to about 49p) to allow more shares to be purchased, and so it is more likely to be in the low 69bn area. The difference between 98bn and 69bn is only about 1.4% so not really a great difference.

The current level of shares in issue was last achieved back in early 2013. 69bn would take us back to 2012


#175

Loads bought today below 63p :slight_smile:


#176

Unfortunately they are maintaining a relatively flat buyback level at the moment, so no sign of using the decreased price to ramp up purchases. Today was the fourth day at 13m shares (£8.3m), during which time the sp has dropped from 63.6p to 61.8p.


LLOYDS is going to FLY
#177

What on earth … rns this morning saying LLOY are issuing 545 million new shares tomorrow to pay into bonus schemes etc.

Kind of makes a mockery of our anticipating a sp or dividend benefit from the buy back programme, and makes it a lie that the buy back is in some way returning capital to shareholders. They are just laundering.

I know Bowman has warned us that the buy back gets diluted by new issues but this is utterly ridiculous.


#178

Quite right.

So far the buyback has removed 615.8m shares, but 586.5m new shares have been issued since the start of the buyback, making a net reduction of 29.3m.

Without the buyback the bonus shares would have increased the number of shares in issue and therefore diluted all existing holdings. The bonus shares could have been purchased in the market and then given to the recipients, but this would have involved the expenditure of a lot of money; just as we have from the buyback - so not a great difference.

Remember that 623m new shares were issued during the previous (2018) buyback. Also the majority of the increase in the number of shares in issue between 2010 and 2018 was the result of bonus share issues, but there was no corresponding buyback during the same period to compensate.

The current share purchases are being touted as a buyback, but a large proportion is just the payment of bonuses.

The current status, taking the new issuance into account, makes us on target to achieve a final number of shares in issue of 69.2bn by mid-August 2019.


#179

The Buyback is just a front, those stupid enough to fall for it should read the rns releases.


#180

It has to be said that banking bonuses are excessive and a drain on shareholder wealth. The whole system is corrupt when those charged with setting targets and rewards also have their snouts in the trough and so defend the system.

Frog in a tree


#181

Why are lloyds paying Shares Bonuses when the share price is lower than it was 10 years ago add in 2009 we was in a recession , with a banking credit crisis and share price still not recovered back to only a £1 since then

18 months after PPI expiry date and if we still rubbish share price going give my shares to charity :slight_smile:


#182

Buying loads more under 63p today :wink:


#183

The buy back is paying for the bonuses disgusting. RBS is a better buy


#184

Hi @regardless, That might pose a bit of a problem for the retirement plan though ???

ATB

Pref

PS Have you been watching one of your old favourites CNA lately ?. Down to 93.x today, yield almost 13% !!!. Maybe I shouldn’t mention it or you might buy back in !. Don’t even think about it… Mr Conn is the captain of a sinking ship IMHO…FW my opinion is worth anyway.


#185

I have not posted an update for the past week since nothing much has happened. 25.7% of the funds have been used so far to buy 1% of the original shares in issue (i.e. when the 2019 buyback started). However with the new shares that have been issued we have actually only reduced the number of shares by 0.2%. We are still on target to get down to about 69.2bn shares by the end of the buyback, hopefully some time in August. The rate of purchases is behind the 2018 rate at this stage, with the gap widening, so it is possible that this year’s buyback will take a little longer.


The LLOY sp is moving in much the same manner recently as most of the other major Bank shares, although the divergence since the begining of the year is getting smaller.


#186

Moral of the story the Buy Backs over the last 12 months here with Lloyds have had little positive effect on the share price and still way below the 68p mark when we started in the programme in 2018

Honestly was I hoping for 78p by now not holding onto a weak 60p range … its like banging your head against a brick wall and a little frustrating to be proved wrong

I am also starting to question the benefits of lloy Buy Back policy myself here, I was 110% behind any buyback scheme if we saw a positive momentum on the share price

So hopefully any surplus of capital in 2019 coming our way must be paid as a Special Dividend then Shareholders receive benefits they can see and feel/ smell the money… There is nothing seeing hard cash paid into Bank account , so far our buying back money ( shareholders funds ) just has been sucked into the hands / pockets of the Market Makers IMHO


#187

Unfortunately it is always difficult to see what effect a buyback is having, especially when the amount involved is small, since wider global and economic influences result in far greater changes. It is also difficult to see any effect where extra shares are being issued during the buyback.

One must remember that without the buyback the extra shares being issued would have a dilutive effect that would normally result in a drop in the sp, so we have two effects working against each other.

The current buyback has taken 1% of the shares out of the market, which would normally be expected to result in a 0.6p increase in the sp, however the new shares that have been issued have reduced this gain to only 0.1p. The daily sp change has moved within a range of +1.48p to -2.26p since the 2019 buyback started, so one can see that any buyback effect is completely masked by external effects.

I would never expect the buyback, or the curtailemnt of PPI, to have a significant effect on the sp such that it outweighs the effect on the sp of external sentiment (e.g. Brexit or the effect of the US/China trade dispute), especially with such a small amount dedicated to the buyback.

I have read some articles recently that imply that it is more probable that any higher level of profits would be dedicated to a larger buyback rather than a special or increased dividend. I think we may see a nominal dividend increase, but the bulk of any extra funds available to be distributed to shareholders will be allocated to an increase in the buyback level. I believe this is being done so that they are extremely unlikely to have to cut the level of dividend paid, since stopping the buyback does not reflect as badly on the Company as a flat or declining dividend would.


#188

5 years ago Lloyds went to 90p without Buy Back’s or paying Dividends and PPI was in full swing

Why o why we only 60p today I cry out loud


#189

If one looks at the LLOY sp change over the past decade, then there is nothing to suggest that we should be a great deal higher than we are at the moment. I posted my view on another LLOY related thread that I thought we are unlikely to see the sp above 70p this year. We are currently back where we were several times in 2016. One can see that the sp had descended into the 60’s even before the EU referendum.

There does not appear to be a clear upward or downward movement, and for all intents and purposes we are just going sideways, all be it with potentially large swings. We are currently in a 20p to 90p channel, and are slightly up on the 55p median level. This covers the whole decade

However if one was to look at the period from 2013 then the channel becomes 45p to 90p, with a median level of 67.5p, which is slightly higher than the current level. Finally if one takes only the period since the EU referendum, then the channel is 48p to 72p, with a median level of 60p, which is exactly where we are now.

There are many external effects that are impacting the sp, and there is no clear indication which effect will have the largest influence on the price direction. A no-deal brexit, or a General Election, could have a severe negative impact, although the duration over which this will run is unclear.


#190

Any thoughts on here as to the effect of the move to quarterly dividends?

Looking ahead it seems as if we are due a interim and final as normal this year - in sept 2019 & May 2020 - before moving straight into the first quarterly (albeit a 20% payment of this years total amount which is still TBA) in June of 2020 - ???