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LLOY - Share buyback 2019

lse:lloy

#222

Hi @white_rose, Well just demonstrates once again that having ALL of your investments within an ISA or a SIPP is the ideal place to be. I am retired now but I have been fully ISAd up for some while, no more tax returns for me or worrying about dividend tax allowances etc. It will take time and effort to do (it did for me) but in the end it’s worth the effort.

ATB

Pref


#223

@White_Rose,
Actually my total is higher that the most recent TVR RNS, not lower.

My understanding was that the bonus shares issued are taken from the quantity available within each bonus Plan (of which there are five). I beleive there are somewhere in the region of 850m shares in these Plans that have been issued but not allocated. There is usually a block-listing RNS issued when extra, new, shares are added to these Plans. However, you may be correct in that although they are issued they might not actually be included in the TVR total until they have been allocated.

There was a TVR RNS issued on Feb 28th, just before the current buyback starrted. There have been three subsequent TVR RNS’s, issued at one month intervals, since the buyback started. The table below shows the various figures.

RNS Date TVR Difference Buyback Discrepancy
28-Feb-19 71,349,949,398
29-Mar-19 71,196,168,225 -153,781,173 -167,349,169 13,567,996
30-Apr-19 70,864,314,036 -331,854,189 -359,827,073 27,972,884
31-May-19 70,956,983,504 92,669,468 -298,107,517 390,776,985
Totals: -392,965,894 -825,283,759 432,317,865

There was a block-listing RNS issued on May 8th covering 545m new shares. I had added this quantity to the number of shares in issue, giving me a total of 71,111,206,519 for May 31st, which was 154m higher than the TVR RNS. (The 130m I mentioned in my last post was wrong, since I found I had double counted one of the buyback values).

I think I will modify my spreadsheet to ignore the block-listing shares, and only make adjustments when a TVR RNS is issued. The discrepancy between the TVR figure and my calculation figure will then be the number of bonus shares that have actually been allocated in the intervening period.

This adjustment has no effect on the charts I have posted since these are based solely on the number of buyback shares.

The 2018 buyback started in March 2018. The 2018 buyback took out 1,576,889,674 shares, and the 2019 buyback had taken out 825,283,759 shares by 31st May, a grand total of 2,402,173,433 shares. However the number of shares in issue had only decreased by 1,129,449,082 shares, showing that 1,272,724,351 bonus shares must have been issued during the intervening time (1 year 2.75 months), i.e. 53% of the £1,511,882,576 spent on the buybacks (£801,028,662) had actually been spent on the bonus shares.


#224

Hi @Bowman, So for every 2 shares that LLOY have bought back 1 extra share has been issued as a staff bonus ?. I published a link to their bonus scheme and it did seem very generous. Anyway to my mind the downward moves in the share price during this buyback pretty clearly shows that the buyback activity has little positive effect on the share price, though I guess without it the price might have dropped even more ?.

US futures have just opened (23:15 now) and IG has them down about 0.5% across the board. FTSE and STOXX 50 down about the same ATM, so looks like another down day tomorrow.

Maybe things will perk up overnight. Trump in uk tomorrow so that will be interesting !.

ATB

Pref


#225

Another fail on buybacks, same as last time.
Assuming average paid for buybacks of 62.5, sp close Friday @ 57.26, lost 8.5 % so far buying back their own shares.

They would have been better off shorting or selling, not buying.

History repeats.
Looks like another support level will fail today.

soi


#226

What goes up can come down, and conversely what goes down can go back up.

We have dropped about 10p (excluding today’s action) since the most recent peak in mid April. However, we rose by about the same amount between the end of December and mid-February, and the rise between end December and mid April was about 16p.

I think LLOY is mirroring the changes made by the FTSE over the same periods, and I think that the most recent drops are more to do with global tensions (China, Iran, etc.) than with anything LLOY specific (although Brexit may have amplified the effect for LLOY). It seems that these negative effects are not showing any signs of abating (in fact that seem to be getting worse) so I will definitely not be surprised if we see some more support levels fail.

I am sure that those running the buyback were unaware of theses effects when they made the purchases. The fact that they have maintained a steady level (in cash terms) of purchases show that they believe these effects could be transitory.

The Brokers dealing with the buyback do not have the autority to sell or short LLOY shares, so their only alternative would have been to defer making purchases until a bottom has been established, something they do not seem interested in doing, so it seems that they will continue reducing the average price paid.

I calculate that the average price paid during the 2018 buyback was 63.12p, which is even higher than the current 2019 average of 62.50p.


#227

You are funny Soul Man


#228

On 28 Dec 2018 we completed a 20% market correction. These occur once every 3 years. You buy them. After that trade your plan.

Alternatively you can watch news a try to convince yourself that Brexit, PPI, Trade negotiations matter and they move markets


#229

Interesting. The buyback brokers have today decided to change the amount they have spent, breaking the pattern of the past 21 days by almost doubling the amount bought. Today’s buyback volume is the highest since the 2019 buyback started. The average paid today was 56.86p, which is below the closing price of 57.05p. It will be interesting to see what the rest of the week brings.


#230

My chart shows the FTSE100 peaked @ ~7867 on May 22nd 2018 and dropped 16% to 6571 by late December. LLOY peaked at 72.2 on Jan 23rd, and then dropped by 31% to 50 by late December.

Which 20% correction are you referring to?


#231

Lets hope so and if what went down then goes up and then some can get out!

Games - The housing market is really drying up now – a near neighbour has witnessed his £850K (or so he thought) property sell for £665k after 12 months on the market.


#232

Hi @eadwig/All, Well just another example today of the extreme moves in US Tech stocks. Today it’s been caused by an anti-trust investigation it would seem:-

FB down 7.5%, Google down 6.1%, Amazon down 4.65%, Microsoft down 3.1%, Tesla down 3.3%. Anyone who held Tesla on Jan 1st 2019 has seen the share price fall from ~$350 to $179 today ie about 50% and no dividends. Of course if you bought at the IPO when they were $17 then you are well in profit, but for anyone whose bought after Jan 1st 2019 it’s been a disaster IMHO.

As I posted previously, investing in these US tech stocks can be extremely hazardous it seems to me…

ATB

Pref


#233

The S&P500 correction to 2315.


#234

@PrefInvestor1 Hi,

I think most of the drop today was more about a ‘risk-off’ approach by fund managers as Trump accelerates global markets into a big correction mixing politics with trade. Risk-off with the fund manager herd appears to be ‘sell anything with a high P.E.’

The anti-trust thing is massively overdue in USA, where they have continually over-looked the issue for years. I’d be very surprised if it wasn’t already priced in to a great extent. Tesla is obviously not a prt of that and I’d be surprised if the drop in MSFT has anything to do with anti-trust either. MSFT should have been investigated 30 years ago.

About 10 years ago I had one of my companies wiped out by Google. A web site through which I sold advertising was ‘penalised’ 60 places on any Google search. I requested a reason and was told I was penalised and given a list of about 40 reasons why that may have been the case with my own particular web site. An appeal was allowed, so I made one, even though I wasn’t sure what they had penalised me for (they refuse to say).

I was duly informed that my appeal had failed and that I as an individual was now ‘blacklisted’ which meant all other web sites that were registered to my name were also penalised. If you weren’t in the top 3 on certain searches then advertisers didn’t want to know, so they all left when their contracts were up. Sites that moved up to take their places had original content (my own copyrighted material) copied on their sites and were packed full of Google ads advertising. Draw your own conclusions. I couldn’t prove anything and had no one other than Google to appeal to anyway.

TWENTY years ago or so I had a spat with one of the directors at Yahoo. Shortly afterwards my commercial game which was listed at the top of their list of internet games (the name began with ‘A’) was moved to a sub-section called ‘British Internet Games’. I lost 90% of new customers, dropping from around 60 a month to 5 or 6 only. This was when Yahoo was the main site to be listed with, if anyone can remember those days.

Believe me, no one welcomes USA anti-trust laws more than me when it comes to the likes of Google and Apple (with their closed eco-system, flying in the face of all the efforts that were put in by people like me to make the internet open to all).

As for Facebook, I’m not sure what they can do there. You can’t break up the main entity and as FB’s revenues come 90%+ from advertising on that and older style advertisers like FTSE 100 WPP (50% off its highs 2 years ago) are racing to copy their business model, I think any regulations are going to apply equally to the competition.

The big losers there could actually be the small businesses that have found advertising to be efficient and profitable, compared to the past where it was actually hard to measure the impact of any campaign. It all depends on what comes out of it … and if it is then applied across other territories.

The EU has been happily fining Google and FB billions for years (MSFT too if you can remember when it forced Windows to allow other browsers. That was what made Google ultimately, ironically). I doubt the Uk will have the clout to do such things post Brexit - especially as FB is probably the biggest payer in terms of salaries and bonuses now in London .


#235

Hi mac

I recall you mentioning that before, quite some correction.

It would have been great to have entered short at the top but so hard to do.

Are you back in Italy now ?
Less than 2 weeks for me.
Looking forward to it.

ATB

soi


#236

JHow are you my friend?

I had the stats on 5, 10 and 20% corrections and the success you would have had going long was staggering. Back in Feb 2018 when Trump was doing his tweeting and the VIX hit 47, I recall doing some research with a view to capitalising on the next correction. It actually makes buy to hold ridiculously inefficient.

I got back from Italy last night (April was very wet and the grass was 70cm high). I spent four days doing non stop strimming. I’ve now got a couple of Macedonians to do it while I away. I’ve got the house on the market right now. My estate agent seems to think I can make 25% gain on it. I’m not holding my breath, but, if I can manage that I will upscale. Interestingly, the viewers have been Swiss, Swiss, Swiss Italian, Dane, Dutch and Norweign. All wanting to make a permanent move.

I will be back for two weeks in September, then in December. Looking to be back permanently in March.

Are you off to your usual Lombardia village?


#237

Hi mac

I am fine thanks, yes usual place, just outside of Como.I will be there for 4 months, until mid October which will make it my longest stay there, have done 3 months before.
If that goes well, will look to spending 6 months there next year.

Yes, buy to hold can be very inefficient.
Time in the market is often overlooked, the more time in, the longer time one is at risk.

ATB

soi


#238

Does anyone know why it appears there were two RNS announcements last night? At first skim they appear identical - except one was released 17.03 and the other 17.13. There doesn’t appear to be any correction today to it so presumably non material?


#239

@Darkhorse1765,

I also wondered about this and then I noticed that in the first one the hyperlink to the listing of all the individual transactions was missing. The second RNS corrected this.


#240

I hate to think where Lloyds share price would be without buying back its shares over that last 12 months

Hopefully we have enough powder to last up to early 2020 ( get through the troubles ) as we only buying small daily amounts and not enough to push us North not even showing any support

Only blessing I suppose Lloyds is buying back today at around 15% below my ORGINAL average now, when I bought back in here in April 2018

Also if I stayed in CNA shares I be about 35% down so its not all bad with Lloyds as I also picked up a few pence in Dividends so far so true average is probably now below 60p


#241

Personally I cannot see the shareholders approving / waving through another Buy Back once 2019 is completed

Antonio show us the money Thanks no more throwing our money into the Market Makers Pockets