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LLOY - Share buyback 2019

lse:lloy

#282

To be fair… 70p doesn’t interest you as much from income point of view. So lets see if striking 40 or at least still holding 50-60 in 6 months time.


#283

No.1 of 5 in historic relevance.

Volume history. Go to Lloy monthly charts. Put volume on and ignore all volume below 50 period. Means nothing.

You can see volume of relevance entering around March 2016… a buy in a fall if all other things totted up…

Price fell after that rise… .now go to Nov 2018. Volume of relevance kicked back in at around same level. All things totting up…a buy again.

But also note the volume relative to 2016. Wasn’t months of mass buying like 2016. Only up to a month. Very weak market interest compared to 2016 at roughly same price level. (Bears will then watch for a turning point in dead cat bounce scenario) So your buy expectation target had to be much lower than the previous buy high.

Comparing those volumes and how price has been in the now v past sets, the buy low of 2018 can only be deemed a temporary support.

Just an example of historical relevance.

What’s the difference in the two volumes?

Not much fund interest this time around

Chart probably told you the most important fundamental of all fundamentals. City have no interest (imo). So whatever the known fundamentals of the sector and Lloy are, it’s not impressing them.

That’s not going to bother a trader. Pretty relevant to income fund positioning though

Summary: some funds have capital vested around 50p. Of couese they do. Traders took price up for them from same zone 2018. That’s fair. Watch them fold out capital on return to input prices.

Vodafone classic in slow motion

The threat to us/retail.

Income funds will be happy to grind this out as long as possible . So what’s the issue

Well they bagged their div. Let’s say they want to dump the stock at input prices or just above. Pretty rapidly they dump it on us. We are left holding the baby. Example say 55-60p. As soon as they dump their lot, it’s a fast affect. Our capital reduction will be such that div has to make 30-40% up over coming few years. This is what i expect here.

The gamble: you time out just before them. Need a keen eye for that.

Anyway new week ahead… time to go plan the weeks Lolly.


#284

My comment about using what happened before 2009 as a pattern ignored the global financial meltdown that occurred in the period 2007-2009. Subsequently I would look at what has happened since then as more relevant.

Your comments around 2016 appears to ignore totally what happened in mid-2016, something that had a significant negative effect on the the LLOY share price (and is still having an effect).

As for your comments regarding what “Funds” are doing, that all appears to be conjecture on your part, which I do not believe is backed up by any clear facts.

I believe that LLOY’s prospects are linked to external events and one’s personal take on these events will colour ones belief in whether an investment in LLOY is worthwhile in the long run. LLOY has the potential to rise to 70p within the next 6 to 12 months (an uplift of 20% excluding the 6% annual dividend).

You are obviously very negative concerning LLOY, and I suspect also for other Banks, are are expecting the financial sector, if not the entire UK oriented section of the FTSE to tank in the forthcoming weeks and months.


#285

Everything i suggest about future price , funds etc, is conjecture. Even central banks with billions in resources, forecast. No assurances . Don’t think any of us can be factful about the future.

As for past facts and present day ? We all see them differently. And interpret differently. It’s why so many losers in this game.

Yes.

So 2007-2009 told you nothing about companies? I think a lot of valuable info there for today, whether price is rising or falling.

I also also think pre 2007-2009 in lloyds, 're 1999 to 2007 drop of approx 40%, (can’t blame 2008 meltdown for that), still has relevant data in it today.

But all different. Ultimately only two things can happen whatever we say. Sink or Swim.


#286

Il also add, I’m not basing this on brexit. I expect it to fall regardless leave or remain. I’m not sure what the 20 year 90% drop is down to… maybe many variables. Maybe Lloyds simply unloved. Either way, 2016 vote and future outcome not relevant to my thoughts.

Target: Lloy 30p (based on past data and future conjecture )


#287

Yes Lloy. Not discussing all banks. Not whole financial sector. Many great sub sectors


#288

I understand what your trying to say. Most good returns come from lows or after declines. Buy a dog and end up with a racehorse etc.

I do the same. But the dog cant have rabies.


#289

20 year rabie itch. Must be near dead now


#290

Hi @Armageddon , Well you are certainly prolific with your posts there is no doubt about that. But you seem SO negative on LLOY and you’ve never even implied having a holding so why are you here posting stuff that most LLOY holders won’t agree with by and large ?. I don’t have a problem with it myself but I am somewhat interested in your reasons for being here ?.

You could ask me the same question of course, as I am not a LLOY holder nor am I likely to be. But I do not share your apparently completely negative view of LLOY. I see them as a bank that will likely do well ultimately as they are profitable and the dividends are attractive and probably growing. I think they are held back by PPI, negative news on the housing market, brexit and interest rates – but I can see why people might want to invest here and am sympathetic to that. It’s not for me though as I don’t want to hold any more single stocks and LLOY is just too volatile for my liking. Only ITs and ETFs for me in future (well and some more NRR maybe ?).

For me it’s also about the new form of these ii boards too. Many of the stock related boards here are virtually dead and as I have always posted either here or on the HSBA or VOD boards in the past (with the old boards) then I just tend to stay here and post about anything that interests me really. Sorry if that annoys LLOY posters ?.

Maybe I should just give up here and move all of my efforts to the Lemon Fool ?. But I also feel like I know quite a few of the remaining people who post here, which is probably the major reason why I’m still here.

Anyway ATB

Pref


#291

I am an investor… in its demise. My short interest as valid as any buyers.

Do you know how many excuses I’ve heard for Lloy since 1999 and 500p? I can’t count them all. But by in large, mostly the same yearly.

Wisest way. Single stocks are for traders and fools. And funds to control price and go play options lol

I’ve read your philosophy and pretty much agree with what you execute now. I dont know lemon fool etc. But you are right. Very very quiet here.


#292

You like the term investor. Il use it.

Investors put money in to take money out. Buy, short…we are all the same

Unless you care about the company. Don’t see the point in that


#293

But I can’t even remember an instance of you saying you were shorting LLOY, well not till just now anyway ?. Perhaps I’m wrong there I haven’t really looked.

I at least try to make a positive contribution if I think I can… I don’t just post negative stuff (well I have sometimes on other stocks but not LLOY).

ATB

Pref


#294

Nearly 40 holdings I’ve not declared as such. But still comment on them.

My words are not negative. They are positive. At least positive if your short… perception right? All bulls to me are negative when im short

But they are also positive words for a buyer. Protect profits because of shorters? Maybe somebody bails and saves 10%?

Also positive words to wannabe buyers. Wait for better value.

To me, nothing is negative. There is advantage in everything.

Once upon a time I did only buy. Bears were super positive to me then. Driving price down so I could buy great value.

When you bought a low and price flew and you made 40%… thank the bears for that buy… Not the bulls. They were probably just whinging at the time.


#295

Well I call myself an investor because I buy and hold things for an extended period. I research each of my investments so I know what they do, am familiar with their revenue, profit, LTV, NAV etc. I read their annual reports and trading updates and follow their RNSs. They are not just numbers to me. I even in part do the ethical investing thing, so I won’t invest in tobacco (or pot) stocks or anything else that I consider unsavoury and I DO like to invest in renewable energy investments.

I also follow the market and political news and the global macro economic environment with a further eye on managing risk.

I think you need to do that stuff to be able to be in a position to manage all of the risks associated with investing. Not just set a stop N less than whatever you bought in at……

ATB

Pref


#296

I just let others do all that for me. Then follow the mass money of those conclusions. My opinion means little. Rather follow the funds in my own analysis style. They set the tone.

I set a stop because if i get one wrong… . Not going to cost me 60%. You watch all the news etc. Never get one wrong and down 50%? Should use a stop. Get the capital in elsewhere instead of waiting a decade for a few pence.

Nav (an example). As accounts adjust (like in banks for years ) Nav can fall to price on balance sheet adjustments. Not just price rise to Nav.

I might not watch all the news etc now. But I was probably doing fundamentals two decades before you even bothered with markets (unless you did markets for a living) . And that’s where i learned my opinion means sfa. Follow the money and their view

Good you do the ethical thing. I do too (mostly)


#297

Well it’s past 23:00 now and US Futures have opened as have IGs charts for the FTSE 100, STOXX 50 and ASX200 all of which I keep an eye on. With the Mexico tariff scare put to bed after US markets closed I am not surprised to see US Futures all up about 0.5%, FTSE and STOXX 50 about the same. ASX 200 strongly up by over 1% (good for my IAPD ETF I hope). Oil up 1%, GBP down a tad, also good.

Looks like it might be an up day tomorrow. Hoping that Far East markets follow suit.

ATB

Pref

PS All that said everything could easily change overnight obviously !.


#298

Been up that since Saturday morning in weekend markets in IG. Gap market on official open. Will be some sell off and then see


#299

Be surprised if gap up doesn’t drive it back to official close. Assess then


#300

Also note the gap up triggering orders open above the high of 20-23 May. They’ll sweat later lol


#301

Another nice morning read over with a nice cup of tea and toast :wink:

Thanks for all posting it’s always good to read others views

HAPPY MONDAYS