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LLOY - Share buyback 2019

lse:lloy

#362

Market reads fair value at 48-49p in today’s current climate, it’s dropped 25% in 3 months so Divi payments eroded, Will do well to not add yet more provisions for PPI payments as they recently announced they were “surprised “ at the number of claims increase…Not many on these boards have been surprised at the fall, it’s been highly predictable.


#363

There has been a rise in PPI claims in the last few weeks. There has been a massive amount of additional advertising for claims (so far as my own online profile goes anyway - you never know if that’s representative these days). I think that has surprised the banks, the numbers are definitely up Year on Year. Already more in 2019 than 2018 and that’s without adding the last 3 months of claims.

Only about 1/3rd of people de-frauded have claimed so the banks have got away very lightly.

Well, the next big thing is a No Deal Brexit and that is NOT going to help business or certainty, which means more of the same for LLOY for .

Personally I would say 5-15 years. The only thing that is going to save LLOY share price is its dividend yield and the fact there is nowhere else to put cash in a high inflation environment with interest rates dropping, GBP dropping and other countries easing or devaluing.

Why would investors choose LLOY or anything priced in GBP though?

As a reluctant holder (I’ve inherited some, would never have chosen to become a holder)I’d like to see the buyback stop and the cash used to strengthen the balance sheet to help ride out the next few years for LLOY. The only thing that is going to save them is a) Remaining in the EU which would see a huge bounce here, b) Exiting with a deal will give a degree of certainty but for 2 years only, which is nowhere near long enough.

And that is it. Growth almost dead in the UK. The only save from recession have been Brexit deadlines boosting (wasted) business expenditure. We’d be in recession by now without that and any stimulus for the economy (which is on the way it seems from Johnson’s promise) is likely to cost the banks (E.g. interest rate cuts).

Bank’s do well in a growing economy, but they don’t do well in an economy being stimulated to stay out of recession, not least because interest rates will be down to do that (probably). Less money for holding cash on deposit, less spread on their loans, less total profit on loans, less people holding cash in savers accounts and more money required to be held on the balance sheet than in the past … unless a new B of E governor starts to ease the stress test requirements.

LLOY need some new products - along with all retail banks - but I can’t say I’m really aware of anything looking around the world, so the only thing ahead is job cuts.

LLOY no doubt have a massive pension obligation as well, I would think. Its a good job the challenger banks don’t seem able to mount any kind of real challenge.


#364

Eadwig, Point being we (The man on the street) could all see a rise in claims coming, but it would appear not the BOD @ Lloyd’s or Regardless :wink:


#365

Yes. Fair point. When a deadline is set most people will wait until the last moment to act - I know I do with my tax return, and so do most of my accountant’s clients.

Not ‘foreseeing’ that allowed less impairments to be declared earlier and then spread across results. A bit of an accounting conjuring trick perhaps.


#366

Hence why institutional investors are not interested, they like clarity not creative accounting, it’s no wonder Lloyd’s has the largest PI holding…


#367

Hi

Good posts by Eadwig and Grey. Agree.

Interesting when LLOY became live on IG at market open, noticed that IG have moved the buy/sell quotes to 3 decimal points, not the usual 2. Actually confused me for a second.

I cannot remember ever seeing that on a FTSE 100 company.

On a positive note, as the sp drops the spread tightens which as a scalper helps me.

soi


#368

Ok my bad didn’t mean to turn this into a general discussion this board was all about the buy back, but thanks as ever for your comments always good to be grounded.

Btw the buyback yesterday was around 23.5M shares at 49.2p so volumes up from the average and value at the high. Hoovering up bargains, this certainly makes the buyback more effective if you are an income seeker.

In the words of Regardless chomp chom chomp


#369

No room for Growth ?

You not read we ( Lloyds ) are the front runner to buy Tesco’s Mortgage book at bottom end prices ?

Buying back shares at todays prices is a result… remember HMG shares would of cost us 73p plus fees if we chose to buy them back :slight_smile:

Personelly any Long Term holder is happy for the price to stay low while we buying shares direct from the Market place


#370

The buyback was started at 63.92.

What a bad place to start.

Even a blind man would have picked better.

No investment here, no emotion other than what a ballz up LLOY management made.

yet shareholders are celebrating.

No wonder it is the PI s darling.

No idea.

soi


#371

Still doesn’t stop you posting your negative opinions though :wink:


#372

Nope, it does not. Just as entitled to post my views as anyone else.
I hope it comes good for you and others, cannot see how it will in the short/medium term but maybe I missing the LLOY secret weapon.
What are they going to do to drive growth ?

In a stale and unwanted sector.

GL

soi


#373

Dividends are good, whatever how much boring Lloyds Banking Group is in an un-loved sector

Fingers crossed we carry on dropping while the Buy Back Machine is munching


#374

Antonio

BUY BUY BUY

While the summer sun shines Sir


#375

SOI
You are correct
The BUY BACK should have been done with a TRADING aspect …not the “sit back” and let the daily average expenditure of 13 Million be the policy of M.S.
It’s time for wiser heads to prevail ….with what is left from the original 1.5 billion.


#376

last few days buy back being in excess of 20 million shares a day BTW

One plus side

This buy back we getting our pounds worth alright


#377

Could you explain that to me please ?

They started buying at just sub 64 p.
LLOY sp is now struggling at 49 p.

Yes I know the aim was not intended to make money nor support the sp ( just as well )
Imagine where the sp might be if they did not have a regular big buyer in the market.

GL

soi


#378

A bit strange … the rate of buyback has decelerated from 24 million/day to 20 to 17 at a time when the sp has sunk to a three year low. The buy back has done little to uphold the sp but it doesn’t seem to be taking advantage of a bargain either.

I wonder if the algorithm says ease off while the sp is falling. Which will be a shame if it continues down because my share holding is “full” having topped up at 50p.


#379

114 trading days have now passed (excluding today) which is one more than the 2018 buyback. So far £943m has been spent on 1,586.5m shares, compared with £1bn and 1,576.9m shares in 2018. This shows that the average rate of purchases this year is very similar to last year.

If this rate of purchases continues then it should now take until early December to complete the buyback, at which time the total number of shares in issue should be about 69bn, or 3.3% leass then when the buyback started. This would be the equivalent of a 3.3% increase in the per share dividend should the total dividend pool remain the same.

As I have said previously the buyback continues at a steady considered rate. I suspect those advocating massive increases in the rate of purchases at this level of sp would be the first to criticise the Brokers for being too aggressive should the sp continue to fall. However, similarly the Brokers will be attacked for not buying enough should the sp rise. Whatever happens to the sp in the coming months there will be plenty who will attack the Brokers whatever they do!

However, I do concede that we are still currently much lower than the 50m per day seen during periods of the 2018 buyback, so there might be some scope for seeing a short-term increase when it appears that the sp has bottomed slightly.

It has also been pointed out that the Brokers are constrained from being too aggressive in the market since such a behaviour could be construed as market manipulation.

747m “Bonus” shares have been issued so far in 2019, which compares with 767m in 2018 and 599m in 2017. A grand total of 5.3m new shares were issued between 2013 and 2017, showing there were negligible “bonus” shares. 652m new shares were issued in 2011 and 704m in 2012.

The current level of shares in issue is now below the level of January 2013.


#380

Bowman
"Market manipulation " in “Buy Back” purchase. …Mmm ?
Is that ever a first with the present value of Lloyds stock.
Any estimate on of total BUY BACK fund remaining as held by M.S. bank.
Thank You.


#381

Mark

We did cancelled over 20 Million shares today :slight_smile:

Slowly Slowly catchee monkey