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LLOY - Share buyback 2019

lse:lloy

#402

yep, the right course for him but not for the company, having lost 130 million + in capital destruction in the badly timed and poorly executed buy back.

You heavy in ?

If so, GL

soi


#403

SOI
True…Buy Back poorly presented…13 M for days /months on end ….troubling.
Holding …Speculative only and well guided.
See great potential… either way on BREXIT.
Patient.
salutations


#404

Eek … RBS reporting a last minute spike in PPI claims, so there could be one last sting in LLOY’s tail beffore we start to see momentum from the buyback.


#405

Why would there be momentum from the buyback ?

Genuine question.

It shows yet again how lost LLOY top management are.

Lost millions and carry on doing so.

Fact

soi


#406

I did say before that the Tesco book was pants and they were lucky to find a mug to dump it on. Turned out to be even worse than I thought.

IMHO,

SBK


#407

Loads of powder left in the Bank

Still over £673,000,000 Buy Back to spend this year :slight_smile:


#408

Hi Marktime1231

Couple of points to post in reply to your post

Lloyds Total Assets Value is way over £500 Billion and £3.8 Billion is a nice addition ( adding 23,000 premium Mortgages )

Is Lloyds Banking Group valued buy the market at £500 Billion ? If we did we have a share price of £6.75p not a tiddly 50p

Lloyds Banking Group probably only paid Tesco’s £100 Million max direct in cash

Good bit of business IMHO

Cross selling Opportunity’s

Administration costs will come down / fall drastically due to our expertise, In the Mortgage Market and will be added to the Halifax portfolio, I expect that Tesco’s original income of £9M profit to double once on our books

Be patient Lloyds Share price is not priced fundamentally… its all about Politics today

OUR TIME WILL RETURN


#409

I expect I am not alone in hoping that pressures driving down LLOY sp will ease whether from a whiff of good geo-political news … the market is reacting positively to any hint of global trade conditions improving … or a reassessment of the negative views of the sort which you adhere to.

LLOY has nipped up strongly in the last few days a couple of times, and my hope is that any momentum upwards will be reinforced by the buyback. However, the ups have reversed because (guessing) the Tesco mortgage deal looks a weak one and uses up capital, and because we had a signal from RBS that there is an unexpected extra PPI provision to make.

As someone who has longed and shorted LLOY at prices much higher than this why Soi are you now so vocally against it on grounds of fundamentals and bad management … a safe boring bank doing pretty well on several measures like net margin and cost ratios, nothing much in the bank’s control has changed since we were hoping LLOY would progress from being a 67p share to a 75p one. Well I was hoping anyway. Still am.

You are not a long term investor, are you? So why shout it down, are yiu shorting? Are you betting we will drop lower than 49p which looks to me to be about a 3 year low and pricing in all the fears and negatives. If we are not already at a bottom, where is it I wonder.

Anyway … if sentiment does swing round and the sp does start to recover the momentum of the rise will be enhanced by the buybacks still to come. Simply because buying back shares from the market gingers it up. Not enough to overcome sentiment … obviously as we have seen this year … but enough to help an already upward moving price.


#410

Hi

I am not an investor in LLOY, that is correct.
I trade it, by far the share I trade the most, over the last 2 years, maybe longer.
I trade it both long and short.
There are specific levels where I will enter long and short, then set auto limit closes.
Sometimes doing 20 trades in a day.

The last set of results showed 2 worsening factors for LLOY.
Obvious at just a glance.

I think it s prospects have worsened within the last few months.

So do the pros, hence the drop.

GL

soi


#411

Who are these so called pros ?


#412

Not you and not your world.

Some traders analyse correctly, are disciplined, and have plans targets.

They never ever rely on hope.
They do not have any need to ramp.

ATB

soi


#413

Soul Man

I remember watching a programme a few years back they followed 3 people who actually gave up their day jobs to work and come a pro Traders from home … honestly they all spent thousands on live news feeds 24/7 and all about 8 screens each to monitor / analyse the daily movement with charts and graphs

Over a 6 month period they filmed its was a Bear Market like we having today and month on month even the Top FTSE 100 Stocks just carried on falling

You know they all ended up losing big time … after a just few months they lost most of there trading pots

Its sometimes best, Just to sit it out and just post rubbish 24/7 ( like I am doing ) on these Bill Boards, it kills time and sometimes its some fun, rather than try and catch the falling knife and jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire with more losing trades… they start piling up

We both know it could take years, but in time all the Stock Markets are self correcting and move up and down in cycles :wink:

So today, I am sticking and sitting on my hands watching the so called pros trading today

Good Luck cos you going to need it IMHO


#414

The fact that the majority of people who attempt to day trade lose money means nothing to many.
Granted, a minority of traders do make a killing, but only the minority.
This is generally down to luck rather than skill IMO, though good judgement does help.


#415

Good weekend mcgrimes

I tell you a little story in June 2018 I thought I give trading a go.

I set aside a little trading pot of 20K, I wanted to see if I could double up to at least 40K reading these Bill Boards it sounded like easy money.

I had a few winners of 10% gains here and there, that I sold, but sadly re-vested into big losers ( Royal Mail / AAOG/ Metro Bank/ Amigo Loans are a few ) and its only valued today around £3000 I kid you not, today I actually stopped the trading the way its going I end up with nothing… hahahahaha

IMHO the likes of Soul Man and Jackdawsson maybe are extremely lucky or just have the skill and timing … sadly its not for me… so good news is 95% is still invested in Lloyd’s and Barclays for the Dividends , both paying me wages to hold them.

Lloyds paying me £5600 cash on Friday 13th September 2019 and being credited another 450 Barclays’s shares on scrip I signed up to ( Scrip price 142p ) on 23rd September 2019.

I reckon Barclays shares are going to bounce Big one day ( FINGERS CROSSED )


#416

Hi regardless

Nice post, can see where you are coming from but

So the BBC, hardly a good news channel decide to make a program about 3 individuals deciding to give up their jobs and become day traders. What were their previous jobs ? Bus/taxi drivers.supermarket shelf stackers or what?
So many people seem to come in to both investing/trading with no prior experience of
accounts/business/economics. Investing or trading on hopium.

So they were trading in a bear market,they lost, they were wrong, they must have been long in hope and positions.
A lot of money to be made in bear markets, provided you are positioned to the short side.
Many newbies have an allergy to this.

You and others are correct in that most who try trading lose.Not surprised considering the horrific lack of basic knowledge I have witnessed.
Since some regulation changes the SB/CFD providers have been forced to declare clearly what % of their customers lose.

When LLOY was at 65 p. 99% of IG customers with positions in LLOY ( Several hundred of them ) were long.
At the time the % of losers with IG was 79 %.
Can you do the maths or should I make the conclusion ultra clear for you ?

The most recent % of losers has fallen, now it is 74 %, with 97 % long on LLOY.

74 % is a high figure for losers but it does of course show that there are 26 % of winners.

Those with no understanding of how markets work will lose, deservedly.

Even those with a good understanding can get caught out by dramatic changes in levels/sentiment.
I actually know the reason most lose,the reason is exploited by the providers.
Come lambs to the slaughter.

Words like luck have no role to play.
Reckon has no role to play.
Blame MMs/shorters has no role to play.
In fact shows complete ignorance.

Hard work/discipline/risk management all have roles to play.
As well as the ability to actually read a set of accounts/results which most investors cannot do.
Understand PA and TA has a role to play which most investors cannot do, nor some traders.

Being too greedy can cause losses.Going with the herd can cause losses.
Being a lone wolf can make profits, fairly consistently.

Much more I could write but feel this is not the place.

ATB

soi


#417

A sensible approach taken this morning to suspend (cancel) the remaining 2019 buyback, and to preserve capital to pay for the expected surge in PPI provisions [click here to see the related RNS]. This should minimise the impact on the next results and help to ptotect the dividend payout (hopefully!).


#418

So there we are then. A pretty useless buyback programme halted in the face of geopolitics dragging the price down, a need to fund a crummy takeover of the Tesco mortgage book (can you imagine what the quality of that is) from internal resources, and the prospect of a final PPI provision which is miles more than our worst fears.

Still enough in the slush fund to pay out towards exec pensions and staff stock options I wonder, but the myth of “shareholder returns” will now be brutally exposed as a hollow deception.

All this is precisely why I as a private investor would rather have my jam today, a fully distributed dividend so that the cash is in my hand. Promising a rosy future instead, when most of it is beyond control, does not butter my parsnips.

Bowman can you remind us what this buyback has cost (gross and net of sp movement), what it has delivered in terms of long term stock concentration and yield enhancement, and what the alternative eg a special dividend might have been?


#419

Hi Regardless

Thanks. Pleased to see that Soi has said all that needs saying about the trading aspect. Often it’s very challenging, especially with leverage. Total dedication needed. Certainly not for everyone, which is one reason why I’ve never knocked any buy & hold strategy.

No surprise to read that you’re picking up substantial dividends for holding LLOY.

Just a thought: I know you do frequent top-ups with tranches added every so often. Why not save on commission & just get more shares 4 times annually via DRIP until your profit targets reached? No advice intended, but that’s what I’ll be doing. No more buys added to my 4 tranches, but plenty of divi reinvestments until higher targets seen, which in my case may be post-2020 for 73+. By then the number of LLOY’s shares I hold will have grown considerably.

Much agree about BARC. Current SP 138+. Despite the naysayers on other threads, it’s bound to be much higher again at some stage post-Brexit. - Regards.


#420

£1,092,313,610 has been spent of the 2019 buyback, up to Friday 6th September, which would leave £657,686,390 unspent. This sum has bought 1,886,917,377 shares at an average price of 57.89p. At Friday’s closing price of 50.04p LLOY has incurred a paper loss of £156,402,591 on the purchased shares.

According to my calculations there are 70,023,733,083 shares in issue, which is a reduction of 1,326,216,315 shares since the start of the buyback, or 1.9%. This would mean that if the overall dividend pot were to be the same as in the previous year the final dividend per share would be increased by 1.9% (assuming of course that no extra new shares are issued before the dividend is paid).

Had the buyback cash been paid out as a special dividend it would have been 2.5p/share. However, if that had been the case then these monies would not have been available to put towards the increased PPI bill, so the £657m that LLOY currently has free would have to be deducted from the amount available to pay the next dividend. This coupled with the fact that the number of shares in issue would have increased (rather than decreased) would have probably meant a cut in the dividend per share payout.


#421

Some people are very shortsighted when it comes to share buybacks and fail to understand the sustainability aspect.
Your post sums this up perfectly.