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LLOY - Share buyback 2019

lse:lloy

#61

Hi Soul Man

And we closed at 62.91p

A good day for the buy back machine took shares off the Market mostly below final close of 62.91p

See its all swings and roundabouts this game


#62

Today is the fourth buyback day with almost identical daily volume. (11.557m) This daily average volume is still some way short of that required to complete the buyback this year. At some point they are going to have to increase the rate of purchases.

The average purchase price today was 62.52p, which brings the overall average down to 63.00p.


#63

Top Man Bowman :sunglasses:


#64

Knowing how much they care for shareholders, they will increase buybacks as the price goes higher. :roll_eyes:


#65

Hopefully on ex dividend date

Antonio can turn up a gear or two for a few days :wink:


#66

Unfortunately the people actually performing the buyback have no real knowledge of how the sp will change over the next nine months or so. There are many local and global influences that are completely out of their control.

The sp dropped by about 7p over the course of the 2018 buyback, and the largest volumes were bought during the second half of the period, with many large buys at the end at the lowest price.

Consequently, they can only make reasoned guesses on how the sp will change, especially during the Brexit decision period. Whatever they do there will be many armchair experts who will condemn their actions for being incorrect, with the full benefit of 20-20 historical vision.


#67

Hi @regardless, Not quite sure if your reference to government ownership was “tongue in cheek” but if not I believe that they sold the last of their stake some while ago, see below:-

Or maybe you are looking ahead to a labour government (heaven help us all !) and their plans to renationalise RMG. If so I am sure JC will be happy to give the capitalists who had the temerity to buy the company and take some dividends some gilts to replace their holdings (less damage caused by privatisation ?) at a nice juicy 1% yield.

ATB

Pref


#68

Last time the buyback first month was about 6m shares per day increasing to approximately 12m for the next three months and 20m for the final two months. The average price paid was 63p.

The current buyback 11m is in line with the first one i.e. 6m 1.75bn / 1.00bn = 10.5m.

Unless there is a Brexit deal, I expect the share price to generally remain below 63p and end the year drifting back possibly to 50p by December 2019. The buyback premium is already priced in when it was mooted in October 2018.


#69

Hi regardless.

Yes, 100 % correct.
Closing at the day s high.

Suited me as was able to close 2 early day longs at profit.Intrady trades so no holding charges.

DOW has dropped like a stone, FTSE 100 struggling so perhaps LLOY sp will fall back again today.

Time will tell.

GL

soi


#70

Lloyds Buy Back Machine will be having a good day :slight_smile:

keep on running
Keep on eating

Them un-loved Lloyds shares Antonio


#71

Another 11.9m shares bought back today at an average price of 62.29p, which is only slightly higher than the 62.15p closing price.

This chart shows that the purchases are spread relatively evenly over the day, although there was a slight acceleration after about 14:30. The price indicated is the price paid.


#72

Lovely any long term investors will love this

2.14p dividend is Guaranteed FOLKS whatever the prices

Who cares about the share price over the next few months

Broadmoor and trading mates

SELL SELL SELL


#73

Your a strange character regardless , you appear to only want to sing when your winning, Your divi doesn’t cover your loss as your average is 65p ? I take it you remember telling everyone you had £500k invested? With top ups @ £500 per month ?


#74

I take that as a complement Broadmoor1 :slight_smile:

I agree, I am not your usual type of investor / trader


#75

Interesting article in the Investors Chronicle on share buybacks. I have not done the maths for LLOY to see if the calculations proposed shows the LLOY buyback to be a good deal or not. Maybe I will try later, if I get bored.


#76

BUY BACK>>>Last time round did little to increase the stock value…Buying was thinly spread out over months …without any increase in value direction.
cheers


#77

Well, it was not that I was bored, just interested to see how the buyback looked.

I put the data for both the 2018 and 2019 buybacks, using the data at the start of the buyback. The figures do not look that bad when looking at the buyback alone, but of course factors such as share issuance, economic sentiment, and others, will have an effect that influences the sp. The pre-tax profit increased by 13% between 2017 and 2018 Annual reports, and the calculations showed that only a 2.1% increase would be necessary to cover the buyback.
LLOY%20shares
It all seems reasonably positive, although this does not remove the feeling that, as a shareholder, I (we) would still be better off if the buyback funds were used to pay a larger dividend.


#78

Thanks Bowman for all your hard work

Its appreciated


#79

Bowman

Various ways to determine if the buyback is beneficial.

Could also look at net asset value per share.

However, I prefer to look at them like an investment.
2018 average purchase price = 63p + Morgan Stanley’s fees - 1.07p Oct 2018 dividend.
Does Lloyds disclose Morgan Stanley fees?
Based on current share price sub 62p, there is a marginal book loss. Bigger loss if you also consider opportunity costs based on what could have been made on an alternative 1bn investment.

However, Lloyds being a net long term buyer, they would be pleased with the price drifting sideways or downwards until all future buybacks have been fully executed.

If I was a director, my short term goal would to buy back all the shares that were created for the UK government buyback asap and scrap dividends until then.

Lloyds could alternatively offer a scheme to buy back shares commission free directly from those shareholders that want income, say 5% or 10% of their holding.


#80

I agree with you on this. It makes my blood boil when I hear these interminable radio adverts about “the evil banks made to right their wrongs” by a bunch of parasitic ambulance chasing middlemen. I would like to put the lot of them out of business. At what point is the individual responsible for his own investment decisions?

“Oh I have invested in airport parking spaces…It’s not my fault”

“Someone cold called me and suggested I should invest in this film which is produced by Lionsgate…who do I sue”?

“This guy called Rosenblatt called me from Lagos and told me I could make 70% per month investing in something called Volatility futures…,.,How do I get my money back”?

“My mate down the pub knows this guy how has invested in carbon credit futures…,”

Caveat sodding bloody Emptor. Take Responsibility.