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LLOY - Share buyback 2019

lse:lloy

#101

Hi @swamp_cat, Lloyds doing well - are you still in or did you sell ?.

Not quite sure what you are getting at with the TRIG Open Offer. Basically you get a guaranteed 1 share for each 9 that you already hold at 114p with no stamp duty or commission. Current price mid 116.x. And you can apply for more if you want to, no guarantee you will get them though. How can you get scammed ?. You might lose out if the SP drops dramatically I suppose ?.

ATB

Pref


#102

Another 11.4m shares gone, at a price of 63.97p. Not sure if they are maintaining the volume level or the amount being spent. The effective band around the total (daily) cost is actually smaller than that around the volume.


#103

Today’s volume (at 11.26m) is the lowest level so far. However the amount spent was very close to the average spend over the past 11 trading days, so it seems that they may be spending about £7.3m per day. The highest spend to date has been £7.4m and the lowest £7.2m Today’s average price paid (64.54p) has raised the overall average somewhet to 62.89p.


#104

How’s the Buy Back going folks ???

I read Billions of Pounds is returning / pouring back to the Unloved / Undervalued UK stocks :slight_smile:

Bring it on Buster


#105

The buyback continues to trundle along. Today slightly fewer shares were bought-back (11.17m) but the amount paid (£7.3m) was within 0.6% of the average daily amount spent since the start of the buyback.

The average price paid has now risen to 63.11p, with the projected end date still being 31st January 2020.


#106

Pref I made a booboo, sold at 59 ish. Not too concerned at the moment and happy on the sidelines with cash waiting.
Lloyds had a good 30% since 50p when my entry failed. Oh well such is life:)

I hope your prospering nicely.


#107

Well, at long last a change from the pattern!. A measly 3.4m shares bought today, at an average price of 65.78p. Maybe they consider that there is now a good chance for the sp to drop so are waiting for this to happen, before increasing the rate of purchases again.

The resultant drop in the daily average has now moved the end date out to mid-Feb 2020. Just over 5% of the available monies have now been spent on buying 0.2% of the shares in issue.


#108

Hi @Swamp_Cat, I am doing OK thank you. Up just under 6% YTD, I’m sure some have done much better. I am not in LLOY, never bought back in after selling at ~58 . LLOY has been doing well but if brexit turns for the worst that might change ?.

UK stocks have been doing very well in general I feel, much better than late 2018 anyway.

I feel that my portfolio is likely suffering a bit due to the averaging effects of investment trusts and ETFs and the strength of the £. But both these attributes may prove beneficial if things should turn for the worse at some point.

ATB

Pref


#109

Another slow day as again only 3.48m shares bought, at an average of 65.14p. The reduced rate of purchases has again moved the end date out, this time to early March 2020.

I suspect they are holding fire until there is a little more clarity with respect to the latest political developments, although it does seem that they are not optimistic that the sp will continue to climb, otherwise there is no real reason for cutting back on the purchases.


#110

We don’t need get out of 1st Gear with the buy backs

We have the up coming ex dividend date approaching

Dividend hunters will be buying

2nd week in April , Antiono will up the stakes and turn up a gear on the eating machine IMHO


#111

I suspect dividend hunters have already bought. Most likely benchmark the market


#112

I think LLOY have stated and mandated to the broker that the buy back will run up to 31 Dec 2019 (only) eg that is a shareholder-return commitment.

Buying below a par rate now surely means the broker, at arms’ length from LLOY so there is no skulduggery, will have to buy over the par rate later. It is the broker who must think there could be a better time to buy in the months ahead.

Which is a bit of a gamble but also a signal that they expect the sp will drop more than 2p on ex-div, and is vulnerable to a dip on other factors.

OR.

Has the previous buy back rate been shoving up the sp faster than desired, perhaps because as has been stated private punters are reluctant to sell before ex-div.

I pegged out of some of my LLOY at around 65p, not because I doubt this will get to 75p this year or next but because I think there may be a re-buy opportunity in the 50’s ahead … if AHO will not pay a decent divi we need to work the sp rollercoaster in the meantime.

And if that is a wrong call we can still get much better yield elsewhere.


#113

Bigger yields elsewhere yes but 90% of them scare the life out of me

5% yield here with lloy will do me, the buy back is a bonus here

Don’t get me wrong yes No share is 100% solid but lloyds not going bust or out of business any time soon as I see it…

Cheap as chips below 80p


#114

Yes agreed, but …

With LLOY sp above 65p then the forward yield drops below 5%, and I am not content with anything less.

At current sp and backward yields the first 27 FTSE100 stocks and the first 30 FTSE250 stocks yield more. If you are scared to pick your own, let IUKD do it for you … a basket tracking the 50 top FTSE350 yielders, spreading the risk, pays out in quarterly chunks.

It is volatile with the market … share price par is 820-840p, swung 720-940p in the last year … but tends to absorb isolated stock movements, and because over time stock prices tend to reward improving yield then on trend it should grow gently (albeit not smoothly).

At close 799p today it is cheap if you believe the stock market is discounted.

And the yield is 6.36%. 6.36% !!!

Or if you just want 4% chuck all your dosh in CTY and spend more time doing other things.


#115

Hi @marktime1231,

Yes IUKD a nice bundle of high yielding stocks in an ETF wrapper to help avoid single stock disasters. I like it (especially the yield) and am holding.

CTY very popular with folks on the Lemon Fool boards, but with a 4.2% yield it’s a bit below my target. MRCH now at 5% that’s more like it. But then all these equity income funds tend to hold BP, Shell, HSBA, GSK & LGEN as their biggest holdings. As I already hold these as single stocks that makes all these ITs less attractive to me as I don’t want to duplicate my exposure.

If brexit goes well then I suspect that LLOY will too and the buyback can only help I think.

RMG has a bad day today though (sorry regardless) down 4.8% at just over 250. People getting worried that JC might get in and renationalise it ?.

Anyway MT hope you are well.

ATB

Pref


#116

Blimey Pref your cheering me up no end :slight_smile:

Hope alls ok :slight_smile:

OK , going into hiding now nearly broke even on my Lloyds shares last few days, so back into the bunker for me :frowning:

Picking up the full dividend now was thinking maybe doing a 50/50 trade above 68p

Easy this …NOT


#117

Hi @regardless,

Well yes Lloyds has been soaring these last few days, but suffering from brexit blues today I think along with all financials and housebuilders (the usual brexit affected stocks). LLOY will go higher in time I think, with the odd setback on the way like most stocks !. Hey you wanted lower prices for the buyback and your wish has been granted. As always you need to be careful what you wish for…

RMG though, hmmmmm.

ATB

Pref


#118

So if my theory was correct the buy back should have been higher today?


#119

Hi MT,

Well from monitoring previous buybacks (admittedly not LLOY buybacks) I formed the view that the companies contracted to execute the share purchases almost certainly have a bit of software that they feed a total buyback figure (shares or valuation) and that software then performs a pseudo random set of trades to spread that volume evenly over the trading hours. I came to that conclusion by loading ALL of the trades for a day into a spreadsheet and plotting them on a chart, what you got was a “noise pattern” of constant amplitude across the day.

If that model IS correct then it means that someone has to decide prior to the start of the day what the number is going to be for that day and once it’s commenced it won’t be changed.

Somebody had to be in control of the strategy though and decide what today’s number is going to be.

Could be wrong (as always) but those were my conclusions formed from monitoring several HSBA buybacks.

ATB

Pref
.


#120

About 2 weeks ago I posted a chart showing the volume distribution (cumulative) over one trading day. I looked again at the data to see the lot size being traded. There were a total of 2,117 trades made on that day.


There is no discernible pattern to the trade size (at least that I can see). The trades were also made at different intervals, with 267 different intervals being used, varying from 6min 44 secs to 1 sec. There were, in quite a few cases, however, many trades performed at exactly the same time. Again the trade size appearred random.

The pure number of trades being made, and the frequency does suggest that there is some form of automation, but I cannot see a distinct pattern, especially as the total daily volume also varies. No doubt there is an algorithm somewhere that takes various factors into account to determine trade size, and when it is made. It is also possible that somebody defines a target volume, which they try to get as close as possible to, but the total daily traded amount does have a quite wide variation.

I also suspect that different Companies approach their buybacks differerntly, so it is difficult to make a general conclusion on the philosophy behind the individual purchases.