There is every sign that the Johnson government have now been shown the true figures of a no Deal Brexit and are back-pedalling as fast as they can.
However, that doesn’t mean to say they may not have backed themselves into a corner. The economy is in big trouble if a No Deal happens despite HMG addressing some of the more obvious long term issues, like the £0.5Bn p.a. lost from the R&D sector that the EU poured into the UK making it the biggest R&D centre of Europe. That’s just the Horizon 2020 money HMG have today promised to replace (never counted in the net ‘costs’ of being an EU member, by the way).
If the economy is in big trouble, then the local banks are in big trouble, and Brexit with a deal is just the start of a minimum of 5 years uncertainty.
The withdrawal of the UK from Horizon2020 has already seen many cutting edge job losses in the companies that are supposed to be ensuring the future of UK PLC. The new policy of increasing immigration to fill the jobs in such companies is also another sign of realisation dawning, but it is way too late for many already.
Brexit is a huge negative for LLOY for the foreseeable future, but none of us yet know if we’re looking at 5 years or 15 years of uncertainty. Nor can we calculate the loss to the economy of the UK falling from the G7 economies along with loss of international respect.
I’ve been astounded by the number of investors on these boards that have welcomed this situation as a price worth paying for Brexit. Still, I can accept that some people may hold such views. What I can’t understand are those who have those views and then invest in a UK-centric bank (or other business wholly reliant on the UK economy).
It seems like madness to me.
Just think, if Brexit were cancelled tomorrow LLOY would probably put on 50%. in a day, returning to the price it was the day before the referendum campaign plus some with the end of PPI in sight.
That’s certainly something for you to think about, @rossx48, perhaps some others too.