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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#3548

Down the local clubhouse to meet up with a few Southend ole boys for a beer and just realised Lloyd’s ended the day up

Hahahaha


#3549

Hi Again @J_Westlock, Did this chart comparing the FTSE 100 & VUKE with the FTSE 250 & VMID earlier.

Both spiked after the election and the FTSE 100 has stayed up but the FTSE 250 has fallen back. Strange as I thought it was the FTSE 250 stocks people were saying would benefit the most…?

As I said earlier the effects in the FTSE 100 seem very sector specific with outperformance in one area being compensated for by falls in other areas (leaving the FTSE 100 pretty much unchanged). So as I suspected ATM one is better off stock picking than betting on a UK index - well provided you pick the right stocks that is. My NG (utility) & RGL (REIT) are both doing OK.

I shall continue to follow your ETF picks for a while to see how they do, potentially interested in HRUB. Yes I can see that VUSA till the election sounds like a plan.

I dont want to trade every day either - and I’m not. But I still have some cash on hand and I like to be fully invested so am keen to find a home for it. But a defensive home and one that pays some dividends ideally.

ATB

Pref


#3550

Yes, interesting. Have you mapped the impact of GBPUSD or GBPEUR onto the FTSE 100 performance too YTD?


#3551

Not going to trade my 565,000 Lloyd’s shares

Played a blinder in 2019 IMHO

So happy

End of year dividend paid in May this year and 1st quarterly paid in June 2020

Buster my beautiful Parrot says stay firm lad


#3552

I noticed that some of the Renewables are heading a little downwards the last week or so eg. FSFL, NESF & TRIG

Any reason for that?


#3553

Yep… well there was a disastrous Q4 2018 dip so it flatters the 2019 calendar year increase somewhat… if you compare mid-Jan to mid-Jan then you’re back at the price you started at.


#3554

I just tried mapping that and there (still) does seem a good correlation to the $ rate and FTSE100 which might also explain some of the FTSE100 increase as almost a 1-2% drop in GBPUSD since beginning of year.


#3555

What I do know

Lloyd’s is cheap as chips

And I am a thicko investor

If I had half a brain hey

Turned 2500 Lloyd’s shares in 2009 to loads black horse dogs of war

Dog of a share


#3556

Well you were clever enough not to invest in Bombardier.


#3557

Never be greedy I say

I am happy

Natural born winner


#3558

Hi Again @J_Westlock, Well I added those two currency rates to my previous chart and yes they both show about a 2% drop in the GBP vs both the USD and the EUR since 13-Dec. (Sorry I’d post the chart but on the iPad that’s not so easy, but you have your own chart anyway.) But the FTSE 100 is up about 4%. GBP moving higher against both right now up about 0.3% ATM doesn’t bode well for the FTSE tomorrow methinks ?.

Re renewables, yes TRIGs down a bit and a couple of the others have dropped a few pence. Nothing major. BSIF up to 144.5 some compensation. UKW has dropped back from over 150 which I never thought would hold, sold mine at ~149 and bought more NESF a while back. ORIT closing in on your 10% gain, you’ll have to make your mind up soon whether to hold or not…

All those ETFs of yours look to be up today and VUSA too I’m sure given US markets today. I am slightly regretting selling my VWRL and VHYL but I did think that DT had likely gone too far with his Iraq attack. But no plans to buy them back and am putting the cash to work elsewhere.

ATB

Pref


#3559

Hi @regardless, Yes those two dividends should add up to close to 3p a share if things go as expected and there are no nasty dividend surprises, personally not expecting any but that’s no guarantee. With your mega holding that comes to around £17,000 – I just hope it’s all in ISAs or the tax man is going to take his share, even if you aren’t working. :slightly_frowning_face:

While you have built a large holding, as I recall you did buy them all from income when you were working – so it’s your savings pot really, and a nice one it is too. But if as I suspect your average is still over 60 with these recent falls you are probably back underwater again now ?. Only paper losses though as they say.

So back to the waiting game for you, but you are good at that. Better than me. I think LLOY will come good at some point, just not sure exactly when that will be. But you are being paid to wait. I thought (hoped) LLOY might turn more positive given what happened after the election. But it seems that it is still suffering the effects of Brexit and from being seen as the barometer of the UK economy. On recent performance seems you could be waiting a while yet.

Best of luck, as always

Pref


#3560

Hi @Eadwig, Well I am probably mad but I’m having another go at US direct investing. Having watched Microsoft go up up and up and then further up for years on end (all the while telling myself one day I should buy some) well I did a little while ago, and so far they have performed as described. I bought at 152.x and yesterday they closed at 166.x and I was up close to 6% even including FX charges on both buying and selling in that calculation. They have a great diverse product base and ecosystem and the recent JEDI and DOD Office contracts wont do them any harm either.

Looking for more of the same I bought a few Apple shares the other day (also considered Mastercard another stock which looking back seems to just have a stock price that only goes one way – famous last words). But I went for Apple given their highly profitable ecosystem, likely benefits from the China trade deal and 5G refresh cycle this year (amongst other things).

I know Facebook is one of your favourites, but I have failed to make a profit twice before there and have a thing about revisiting old failures. Stocks like Google and Amazon are simply too expensive and I’d only be prepared to buy a really small number.

Anyway it’s a bit of a distraction from my normal fare. Results for both Apple & Microsoft due on 28th & 29th and hoping for a bounce in both.

Hope you are well. AFC Energy up nicely today I see….

ATB

Pref


#3561

Hi Pref,

All my pharmas up over 2% today except Smith & Nephew up only a measly 1.2%.

I suppose these increases are a positive reaction to the news on the Chinese economy which appears not to have been too seriously damaged by tariffs.

My portfolio is approaching its all time high.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#3562

Hi @frog_in_a_tree, Good to hear it’s going well. However for the likes of AZN and GSK as the price goes up the yield goes down, as neither have raised their dividend in quite some time. Your other pharma picks already offered pretty non existent yields, GSK and AZN are fast going the same way. And both these are currently at all time highs, that always makes me uncomfortable……

Capital gain is great obviously and not to be sneezed at. But as you know I prefer a decent yield on my investments in the main (apart from my 2 recent US adventures obviously !). Capital gain can quickly slip away with market pullbacks, but companies don’t tend to cut their dividends unless they are really in trouble.

So congratulations on your success, but I will not be following your lead. In fact I have just bought another renewable energy trust today for its RPI linked dividend……back to fully invested now so can just watch the divis roll in.

ATB

Pref


#3563

Yes, it is swings and roundabouts on capital gains and yields. I tend to take the Warren Buffet approach which is to buy good companies and then hold them.

What was the renewables trust that you bought?

Cheers,

Frog


#3564

Hi Again @frog_in_a_tree, Just got back from my regular walk and as it happens I was reading about Pharma in the Telegraph business section at the pub. Thursday was a bad day for pharma apparently, everything was down but DCH had a horrible day down almost 10% it said. So I took a look at the charts when I got back:-

Looks like Thursday afternoon would have been a really good time to buy, If you took advantage then well done. If you were already in DCH then bad luck, thats single stocks for you…

Anyway you asked what I bought. The answer was I bought back into UKW at a smidge over 147. I had previously sold this at close to 149 a while back thinking it couldnt go much higher and the yield was suffering. Actually it did go above 150 after the election as you can see on the chart below.

Anyway this is just a holding arrangement really while I finalise a more permanent home for the money. I had planned to buy Taylor Wimpey and SSE roughly half each with the money, but since they have both soared out of sight this week thats no longer on. I figure that placing the money here for a bit will pick up the imminent dividend and may bounce back a bit too. I will have the option to leave it there but it would leave me a bit overweight on renewables. If I find something I want to buy then I can always sell it once Ive made a plus score. Been looking for a while though and not found anything I fancy TBH. Everythings getting too pricey and low yield (or risky).

ATB

Pref


#3565

Hi Pref,

I had a very busy day yesterday and missed the 10% fall in DCH…somehow! Not good but it takes us back to where we were in autumn.

I will look into UKW. I am still building my TRIG holding.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#3566

Hi Again @frog_in_a_tree, Well UKW is pricey and trades at a huge premium as do most of them, as I’m sure you know. If you only have TRIG then I’d look at the likes of FSFL, NESF, JLEN or the new one ORIT in preference to UKW. Prices are much lower, yield better and less of a premium. You can see them all in one place at the AIC, link below:-

https://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/find-compare-investment-companies?sector=Renewable+Energy+Infrastructure&name=&region=&manager=&country=&objective=&op=Filter&sort=&form_build_id=form-eNK2u7wvToesjiOtrmG2m1TNGQl_QSKtRFDsU87L4Tw&form_id=aic_data_search_form

I already hold all of those and TRIG and BSIF too (but not ORIT which has just been IPO’d). Now I have roughly the same sized holding in them all which as I said leaves me overweight in renewables…not an immediate problem though.

ATB

Pref


#3567

Also note that apart from being at substantial premiums they are also at or close to all time highs.
Despite that, the demand is there and for the near future they show little sign of being priced lower.
My only concern is whether some of the companies being invested in are still receiving Government (not necessarily UK Gov) subsidies that might quickly be withdrawn… though I haven’t done any research to find that out in recent times… if they are then I’d try and avoid those.