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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#2218

Hi @jackdawson, Well thanks for your kind words, hopefully some of them are justified !. One could always do better and you must never stop learning whilst investing I think. None of it is easy, except making mistakes !.

Best of luck with your leveraged trading, I thought a while back you said you were going to give that up due to a previous bad experience ?. I probably remembered wrong. Take care anyway.

ATB

Pref


#2219

Hi again @PrefInvestor1,

Thanks & you’re welcome. Always good to see others getting just rewards for their investment knowledge & experience.

You’re also correct in your recollections about my previously stated future plans to eventually call an end to leveraged trading. Principally so as to have more time for various other interests. Like many, I find that keeping an eye on real share investments is altogether far less time-consuming &, by association, much less stressful.

Currently, I’m still trading UKX via spread-bets. I’ve done so since 1st March. Since ii changed their platform, I have the UKX BB all to myself. That rather suits me as my trades & comments also function as a personal trading diary.

Though I’ve made substantial progress over recent months, I still plan to end leveraged trading (but not investing in real shares) at some future point.

On 23rd February, 2020, it’ll be 9 years since I started SBs. I always reflect more deeply on any overall progress or reversals as I approach that anniversary. I think I’ll almost certainly continue past 23/02/20, but I can’t say for sure how much longer beyond that. - Regards.


#2220

So a general election on December 12th.

The outcomes are:-

a) Boris loses, brexit scuppered, Lloyd’s is going to fly.
b) Boris wins, boris’s deal has been reported as acceptable to the banking sector, Lloyd’s is going to fly.

Please give your feedback Eadwig, Pref and other profit seekers.

As said by others, I am commenting on brexit to gain a financial advantage on my trading and holdings, I am not interested in political debates commenting on the quality or lack thereof of this deal or any party.


#2221

Or…

Boris wins… not a large majority… a little less than today… he manages to engineer a No Deal Brexit at end of January that causes slowdowns in manufacturing, construction and services… resulting in a slowdown in profits for Lloyds (it’s Lloyds not Lloyd’s by the way).


#2222

I hadn’t considered that. Mainly because I think Boris wants a deal.
I suppose we will have to see on what terms the campaign is fought on but it is already recognised that the majority of brexiteers are content with the Boris deal.

Therefore I predict he fights for Brexit on his deal and that to then go for no deal would be very difficult.

ps I have always been poor at that part of grammar where a name has a plural. Not sure when to use the hyphen. It is so regularly implemented in both ways (not Lloyds but other words too) I never got to grips with it.


#2223

Hi @swamp_rat, Well December 12th is almost 6 weeks away and we’ve perhaps already had a foretaste of market reaction today eg housebuilders, utilities and labour nationalisation targets got clobbered by the look of it.

As for post the election, well there are quite a few potential outcomes including coalitions and the ultimate horror - another hung parliament. A conservative or conservative/Brexit party coalition will likely be good for the markets I think. Were the Lib Dem’s to win (unlikely) or get into a coalition which means we end up remaining that would likely be even better. If Labour or a Labour/Lib Dem coalition get in with Labour in charge and we renegotiate Brexit again and have a second referendum then that’s not going to be good for banks, housebuilders, utilities, nationalisation targets, or just about anything I suspect.

Could be totally wrong obviously !.

By the way congratulations on your Tesla investment for your daughter (I haven’t forgotten), up big time following their results and her holding must be significantly in profit now ?. All I can say is I would never have done it in a million years…

ATB

Pref


#2224

So Pref, once probability is taken into account, it seems banks to prosper if currently a good bet as you generally agree my thinking.

I see pound strengthening too as it did every time it looked like may had a chance of her deal getting through.

As for daughter Pref, she is up 20% on her purchase. Was 25% at peak.
That’s quite good considering her purchase was 80% her funds and 20% government funds. The LISA is doing her proud.

Set a fill or kill on her tsla at $340, I see a short term cap there with opportunity to rebut lower.

Bought her some BP recently too @ 485 from memory and I decided to diversify my own isa this year by adding rdsb with full allowance at circa 2312.


#2225

Yes @swamp_rat, A conservative win or remaining would likely cause a surge in the pound to 1.35 or even higher. A Labour win quite the reverse given their spending plans and general profligacy… A rising GBP would not be good for your daughters Tesla investment…

BP took a hit today through reduced revenues this last quarter, doesn’t bode well for Shell on Thursday but will just have to see.

Confess my main interest at this time is in fixed interest stuff as outlook for equities is pretty uncertain I think. Just holding to see what happens ATM…

ATB

Pref


#2226

If Boris wins then I fully expect a No Deal Brexit and LLOY and other UK-centric stocks will be scuppered - although traditional ‘defensives’ like utilities should get a boost. Johnson and his supporters want a No Deal Brexit along with the Brexit party so he only has to wait out his own deal’s deadline and then blame the EU.

If Boris loses, there is no guarantee Brexit is scuppered. It will depend on the parliamentary maths and I don’t see Labour, or anyone other than the Tories, winning a workable majority. If SNP and Lib-Dems hold enough power together to revoke, the Brexit party will immediately begin a campaign for a second referendum and the Tories will be forced to follow and they may well result in another ‘zombie parliament’.

If it is a hung parliament we’re probably back to where we are now on Brexit, which means more uncertainty and UK-centric stocks and the GBP will be slammed - as we have seen from time to time in recent months.


#2227

Sorry, I had to giggle at that. I don’t disagree, but to call it a surge, when in fact it would only be a partial recovery, seemed a little odd! A sign of the pretty sad times, I suppose, and the levels we have got used to.

I remember a few years ago when I was exchanging a load of USD poker winnings to GBP and I managed it at 1:1.39. I was so pleased because I hit a multi-year bottom perfectly.

We can but dream of 1.39 dollars to the GBP for the foreseeable future (unless some miracle revoke comes about, even then I doubt it would get much above 1:1.45) and the days I spent cruising around the USA when my pound bought over $2.00 seem like a dream from where we currently stand.

I’m so glad I took advantage at the time. I’m so pissed-off that I wont be able to do the same with my daughter as I’d always hoped to do as part of her education at some time over the next few years.


#2228

Yes but I’m not too worried, it’s a longer term hold, trading is doubtful unless I see obvious opportunities. Yes, holding and patience is a tough trade for most people and yet it can pay great rewards.

We have both said we think up north that Boris has the public behind him, I do not think that support would be voting for a hard brexit though. Although to keep ERG on side and Farage at bay, he must keep hold of a certain level of rhetoric. Time will tell.


#2229

The majority of Brexiteers, the majority of Remainers and the majority of the current Parliament are certainly not in favour of the latest Tory Deal.
It is very similar to the last, much hated May Deal but made worse to avoid the backstop replacing it with permanent customs and security checks around NI.

The “fatigue” of “Brexit fatigue” only lasts so long before more and more people (especially the young) realise that they are putting themselves into a worse financial position than they need to be.
IMHO that will be the undoing of the current Tory Party that supposedly is a Party of Business yet has been taken over by right wing elements with a “F@ck business” attitude if it goes against their anti-EU ideology.

Hardly a good environment for UK centric stocks… not that having accounts based in GBP will help most people.

Some more on the latest Tory Deal:

Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal is expected to cost the UK economy as much as £70bn over the next decade compared with remaining in the EU, according to one of the country’s leading economic thinktanks.

In a warning in the run-up to a snap election, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the prime minister’s plan would shave up to 4% from the size of the economy by the end of the 2020s, equivalent to about £1,100 per person per year, compared with a situation where Britain remained in the EU.
It said that Johnson’s plan would fail to generate a “deal dividend” for the economy, contrary to government claims that MPs passing the withdrawal agreement would spur economic growth by lifting the current cloud of uncertainty facing the nation.
OBR to publish borrowing forecasts despite scrapping of budget

Instead, it warned that the withdrawal agreement and proposed free-trade deal put forward by the prime minister would result in a smaller economy than an extension and continued uncertainty.

source: https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/30/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-would-cost-uk-economy-70bn


#2230

If Boris loses, which would suggest a a Corbyn/Labour led government, perhaps a coalition I do not think that on it s own would make LLOY fly. If then Brexit revoked, that should help LLOY but countered with having a Labour led government.
So perhaps a rise but a tempered one.

If Boris wins and forces through Brexit, I think LLOY will drop.

Although Brexit proceedings are having an effect on LLOY sp , after that we have to consider general economic outlook for the UK. Somewhat negative already and could be even more so if Brexit happens.

Difficult to call so for myself I will just keep on scalping it and try to get the short term moves mostly correct.

soi


#2231

I think a lot of that support is from ‘natural Labour voters’ who do want a hard Brexit.

They just want to see as much damage done to the EU as possible. That seems to be their main reason for getting behind Johnson, with statements like “Who does Junker think he’s taking on? You can’t bully Great Britain.” or the like abounding- as though it were the EU throwing us out or after first heaping abuse on our families. I find it both bizarre, hateful and extremely sad.

Once they vote for johnson, it wont matter what they think. He will do whatever he likes if given enough power and the people he has surrounded himself with definitely want a hard Brexit, a No Deal Brexit.

Not just rhetoric, I think they believe that will give them the best opportunity for dealing with the EU (or possibly lining their own pockets in some cases) in future (it wont) and they also believe they can do deals with the likes of USA more quickly. Highly doubtful.

Of course, if you give away enough then you can do a deal with anyone very quickly and then spin it as a successful example of Brexit.

There was an industry leader interviewed yesterday (I didn’t hear what sector he was from unfortunately) saying that although his company had been 100% for a Remain outcome that now he was desperate to get ‘Brexit over with’ because his sector was hanging on by the skin of its teeth.

When asked if they were all ready for Brexit then? He replied, we don’t need to be, we’ve decided to just focus on the UK in future as the only way we can plan ahead.

That sounds ominous to me - and if Johnson gives access to international competitors that see his local UK market as lucrative, its doubtful many purely home-based companies will have the clout to stand up to large, international predatory competition.

It will be a brave new world for industry and commerce, but I think some UK companies, indeed some whole sectors, are going to find themselves ill-prepared and possibly weakened by lack of recent investment in some areas and very possibly suddenly up against much stronger competition than they ever have been before. The results of that will be inevitable.


#2232

I think the Fx markets might start telling the story after the Fed rate decision today and over the next few weeks as the polling data comes out.


#2233

Hi @Eadwig, Well clearly your expectations are pretty negative, perhaps exascerbated by the personal effect this has had on you to date ?. Personally while an upward move of the GBP to 1.35-1.40 might be good for inflation this would pose an equivalent hit to my overseas investments (about ~30% of my portfolio ATM). These are clearly a hedge against a fall in the GBP which a Labour win would bring (I think) but maybe an excessive one - though hopefully a rise in UK centric stocks would compensate as it did just recently.

I am sure that in practice this election is going to be far closer than the election polls indicate. Personally I think anyone holding Corbyn sensitive investments (and especially his nationalisation targets) is playing “election roulette”. I expect them to drop quite significantly in the run-up to the date, especially if Labour is seen as doing better. Yes they might recover afterwards if the Conservatives win, but the damage will have been done by then. Just my opinion obviously…

If Labour win then Jeremy will take us into his Tardis and try to take us back to the 1960s. I’d better buy some candles !.

ATB

Pref


#2234

LLOY flying down ahead of tomorrow s results which will be poor.

IMO

ATB

soi


#2235

@PrefInvestor1,

That is because all outcomes are negative compared to if we had actually left well alone instead of opening this can of worms. GDP already 2.5% smaller than it would have been and another 3.5% to come over the next 10 years based on Johnson’s deal. Only No Deal would be worse from all the possible options to date, with Remaining a clear winner in terms of our prosperity.

No, nothing to do with my personal circumstances. Had they been entirely different it wouldn’t change the facts on the ground. I’ve voted for all the major parties in the past as well as abstained and spoilt my ballot paper in protest. I like to think I always vote for what I believe is best for the country and not for me personally.

I agree the election will be probably very close, probably a hung parliament, but exceptionally difficult to call because it is really a proxy for a second referendum on Brexit via a wholly inappropriate mechanism.

I think it is Johnson’s election to lose given the rather stupid basic error from the SNP and Lib-Dems to force an election while Johnson still has some momentum from his leadership election and the spin placed on him getting a deal.

The fact he bought that deal by pushing the divorce bill up to £46Bn and agreed a possible future £32Bn+ in liability for the UK in the event of the Eurozone experiencing a crisis - when we have never even been in, or ever will be in, the Eurozone - has barely started to be aired and perhaps never will be now we are into election mode.

If he’ll give that much money away just to claim a victory, imagine what he’ll do heading up future trade negotiations - especially if he is under pressure to be seen to deliver quickly. Anyone can get a quick deal if you are throwing tax payer’s money at other countries and burying it in the small print.

Corbyn is a whole other raft of dangers, along with every chance he’ll steer us towards Leaving also, being a Leave supporter all his political life.

Noticeable that utilities that are first in the Labour policy firing line have already been hit, but with the Fed rate decision today we’ll have to wait a day or two to see how fx settles down before we can start using it as an indicator again I think.

If the Fed cut, that will hit HSBA and BARC and will relatively strengthen the GBP with standard consequences for the FTSE 100, very much divided between foreign earners and UK-centric stocks, as we have discussed here often.

It wont all necessarily be good for LLOY because a Fed cut could make a Bank of England cut a little bit more likely, especially as the general election will depress the economy and retailers are already saying the UK consumer is acting like we are already in recession (maybe we are?).


#2236

Hi All, Well LLOY back in the low 57s today and a poor set of results tomorrow (not a prediction but a definite possibility) might well see them back down to 53-54 ?.

Oh @regardless what might have been…

ATB

Pref


#2237

I will never be greedy :slight_smile: