That is because all outcomes are negative compared to if we had actually left well alone instead of opening this can of worms. GDP already 2.5% smaller than it would have been and another 3.5% to come over the next 10 years based on Johnson’s deal. Only No Deal would be worse from all the possible options to date, with Remaining a clear winner in terms of our prosperity.
No, nothing to do with my personal circumstances. Had they been entirely different it wouldn’t change the facts on the ground. I’ve voted for all the major parties in the past as well as abstained and spoilt my ballot paper in protest. I like to think I always vote for what I believe is best for the country and not for me personally.
I agree the election will be probably very close, probably a hung parliament, but exceptionally difficult to call because it is really a proxy for a second referendum on Brexit via a wholly inappropriate mechanism.
I think it is Johnson’s election to lose given the rather stupid basic error from the SNP and Lib-Dems to force an election while Johnson still has some momentum from his leadership election and the spin placed on him getting a deal.
The fact he bought that deal by pushing the divorce bill up to £46Bn and agreed a possible future £32Bn+ in liability for the UK in the event of the Eurozone experiencing a crisis - when we have never even been in, or ever will be in, the Eurozone - has barely started to be aired and perhaps never will be now we are into election mode.
If he’ll give that much money away just to claim a victory, imagine what he’ll do heading up future trade negotiations - especially if he is under pressure to be seen to deliver quickly. Anyone can get a quick deal if you are throwing tax payer’s money at other countries and burying it in the small print.
Corbyn is a whole other raft of dangers, along with every chance he’ll steer us towards Leaving also, being a Leave supporter all his political life.
Noticeable that utilities that are first in the Labour policy firing line have already been hit, but with the Fed rate decision today we’ll have to wait a day or two to see how fx settles down before we can start using it as an indicator again I think.
If the Fed cut, that will hit HSBA and BARC and will relatively strengthen the GBP with standard consequences for the FTSE 100, very much divided between foreign earners and UK-centric stocks, as we have discussed here often.
It wont all necessarily be good for LLOY because a Fed cut could make a Bank of England cut a little bit more likely, especially as the general election will depress the economy and retailers are already saying the UK consumer is acting like we are already in recession (maybe we are?).