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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#2258

BOWMAN ?
To get back to just plain investing…without the ever “Jonnie come lately” ongoing BREXIT garbage.
A question
Your recent views about Lloyds , its value and future… …
Salutations.


#2259

Perfectly true, but I always remember looking at the HSBA accounts one year. Had a HUGE appendix at the back listing all of the litigation or outstanding rulings against them. It’s the same for the oil companies too. Doesn’t stop these companies doing very well if they are run properly, if not then that’s a different matter…

ATB

Pref


#2260

There is a similar thing with Google results.

Some smaller fines are offset against Q3 numbers. Bigger fines are generally accounted for as one off impairments.

Google revenue up 20% but share price was down due to some fines counted in this last quarter against operating profit.

Difference here seems to be that LLOY revenues are actually down, not just a case of one-off costs up.

As I have said before, these companies that seem to incur fines and/or impairments every single quarter really need a clearer way of accounting for them. Are they really one-offs when they keep coming quarter after quarter??


#2261

Ever since the financial crisis and the bank bail outs, it seems to me that various scandals involving the banks have been let out one at a time. I think this is not coincidence, but allowing them to be dealt with without completely undermining the banks.

Its been a while now because PPI is such a big one … the real question is, once it is truly out of the way, is there yet another scandal to come off the taxi rank next?

As a long suffering holder of BARC for ten years and having witnessed the above, it certainly wouldn’t surprise me.

Sub-prime, LIBOR, U.S. Dept of Justice ‘fines’, exchange rates, PPI and others I have forgotten. Not to mention the on-going ‘Reading branch’ scandal LLOY inherited from HBOS which is still to be finally settled I believe. That really was even more disgusting behaviour than PPI.

Let’s not forget the endowment mis-selling before all that as well. That was really the first warning to the public of what banking had become through the 80s banking revolution.


#2262

Just bought back at 60.27p

Increased the number of shares for the Dividend income :slight_smile:

yep, great.

How does the 6 % drop in capital value square up with that ?

Just wondering.

soi


#2263

Given FTSE was down > 1% and most banks were in the red a drop of 1.39% on the back of the results I think LLOY drop of 1.39% isnt as bad as it could have been.

I’ll put my rose tinted glasses down and fill up my half full pint!


#2264

Skikings7

Depends which way you look at things.

More like Lloyds down, pulls other banks with it, lowers FTSE, pulls other shares with it. All because of opportunity costs.

White_rose


#2265

Closed yesterday’s short based on good profit over 1 day.

Need to decide when to start buying back those sold at 59p which unfortunately continued rising to 65p.

Intend to buy at 56p tomorrow and every 1p below that.

White_rose


#2266

Hi @soi, Well to my mind @regardless didn’t really lose 6% of his capital, i realise that strictly you CAN argue that he did. I think he really just lost a big chunk of the share price gains that LLOY had made in the last three weeks.

Let’s face it I suspect that his situation now is not a whole lot different to if he had just held his original holding over the whole period. Perhaps slightly better given that he held back some cash from his half sale. Just a shame he didn’t do better as the opportunity was there…

ATB

Pref


#2267

Hi Pref

yes, valid enough view.

I consider he is slightly better off having taken the action to sell half then buy back a little cheaper.
Unfortunate that the sp then dropped but to my mind it was fairly obvious it was going to do so in the run up to the results and then more again on the day itself.

Hopefully it recovers a bit for him but I still do not see what is going to make LLOY fly.

ATB

soi


#2268

Nothing Wrong with a bit of banter :wink:

What comes around goes around :slight_smile:

This bad boy will come good

LINE DRAWN IN THE SAND WITH PPI NOW

No more big PPI provisions going forward all profits going to paid to us shareholders

HAPPY DAYS


#2269

I’ve still got £21,000 in powder and today 90% certain I will reinvest in Black BEAUTY shares over the next few months before next update anyway


#2270

52 P is the magic number to wait and be patient for.

IMHO,

SBK


#2271

I think this election period - and possibly straight after it too - is going to give a lot of opportunities to buy LLOY cheaper.

So, don’t rush in, Regardless.

Also, consider putting that £21k somewhere else, for Chrissake! Diversification is the only free lunch when it comes to stocks.

DYOR - but here is a starting point for a dividend hound. Avoid the red ones I would suggest, and I wouldn’t be happy buying into any stock that may be potentially nationalised by a Corbyn government right now - even though that possibility may mean their price is artificially low. Personally I’d stick with foreign earners until Brexit is put to bed (about 2035)


#2272

Keeping out of UK stocks is a good idea per se.

Even without the “threat” of Corbyn just look how major benchmark UK facing companies have done SP wise over the past couple of years, e.g.

M&S
Lloyds
Barclays
Centrica
BT
ITV

A basket of basket cases.

IMHO,

SBK


#2273

It has been a cracking short and may continue over the GE and final Brexit. I am not sure that it will offer much to shorters for much longer.

FWIW: I think (or is it hope?) they threw in the kitchen sink - the whole £1.8bn, really? - with the quarterly announcement and expect they will be able to release a bit in next years results to 30 June or 30 September.

It has also been a cracking “long”. Investors Chronicle said hold at 50 a few months ago and said hold at 56.60 yesterday. For those of us without nerves of steel 13.2% gain in 3 months is not bad. (As I posted at the time I made a small purchase at 48.475.)


#2274

Interesting list. Others could be added.

Any you recommend for recovery?

e.g. BT has gone from 160 to 200 in about 8-10 weeks. 25% in less than a quarter year; Or ITV has gone from 105 to 132 on the same timescale - another 25% or so; or even Barclays from 135 to 166 (23%) - to the chagrin of SaraRacano who promised 20p (“These Barclays share are going sub 20p, 2008, was just the prequel to what is coming up this time.” - see post Sep 3)


#2275

Hi @Eadwig + @regardless, Well I am looking at UK centric investments ATM as I don’t want to take the currency risk with an overseas investment, though I realise this could go either way. Actually I’m looking to slightly cut back my overseas exposure. They reckon UK stocks are undervalued ATM don’t they ?. Personally I wouldn’t go near the likes of EVR, BT, CNA or MKS (or VOD) however well they’ve done in the recent past and pretty obviously the Labour nationalisation targets are definitely things to avoid IMHO.

I am completely avoiding REITs till the Brexit commercial property slump is over, but a housebuilder is perhaps a possibility. Good yields and I see Labour Party policy is to continue Help To Buy till 2027…!. So less of a threat there than perhaps I had previously thought.

Also at their recently hammered SPs, BP and Shell must be worth a look ?.

But each to their own obviously….DYOR etc.

ATB

Pref


#2276

Hmmm… I’ve been recommending a build-to-rent REIT just this morning for a 10 year investment. It is at a discount @88p at the moment, is paying 5pps yield and that is due to be 5.5pps in 2022. However, I understand fully why you might be avoiding REITs (as we have discussed before, this is the last one I’m involved with) and I also drew attention to this article when I posted about PRS REIT elsewhere. Its a bit American but there are some good general points about REIT sub-sectors.

An interesting diagram in that article was:

which makes you think.

Which is a bit of a long way round of saying I’m pretty sure most of my current investments, and I don’t have that many, wouldn’t appeal to you being AIM small and micro-caps and, perhaps even more to the point, focussed on growth rather than dividend returns.

Now the GBP is relatively not so bad against the USD, how about a Cybersecurity fund? Still growth, but some very big companies in there, not many UK and mostly USA but even so - can anyone deny it is a growth sector that will keep going even through a global slowdown?

I’m invested in ISPY which was initially very volatile and I had to trade the position until I was happy 2-3 years ago and it is off its highs enough for me to have been considering doubling-down, despite being 50%+ up.

Other than that, I’m casting around myself to play the current situation and it really isn’t so easy to come up with a new thesis right now and harder still to pick an undervalued UK company that is a means to play it. I’m as open to suggestions as you are - across all types of investment.


#2277

I wonder what the ‘average investor’ was doing to only have generated 2.6% pa over the past 20 years?
Probably investing in just one stock like Lloyds?

If someone had invested in an S&P500 tracker instead for those 20 years… I suspect they would have made over 8% with reinvested dividends and after taking into account inflation about 6%.