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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#2298

You don’t pay WHT on ETFs not listed in the US… so not an issue for me.

Also, I don’t think many have ever been able to predict the end of a bull run in any market. Not investing in a market just because it has been on a long bull run seems unwise to me… but that’s because personally I want a diversified portfolio across sectors and countries around the world… and I manage the portfolio purely to achieve the right proportions I want… other than a relatively small amount I set aside for speculation.
Ultimately the US bull run has been driven by a combination of slow-but-steady economic growth, record corporate profits and record low interest rates. It will come to an end but it doesn’t HAVE to come to an end with a quick or massive decline… but if it does… it does… and nothing will save you then anyway.


#2299

Hi Again @J_Westlock, Yes good point. I stupidly assumed that being an S&P related investment it was listed in the US, but no its domiciled in Ireland and not even listed in the US. Being priced in GBP was the giveaway I guess, also being UCITS (not many US ETFs are). Same for VUSA I think.

Yes but investing in something that’s “toppy” isn’t often a great idea is it. And you couldn’t describe the S&P as anything else surely ?. Right now I’m more interested in a preference share or perhaps a debt IT investment, something like RMDL maybe?. Something not market correlated. When the election smoke has cleared I could well be interested in a REIT investment.

Regarding your sector oriented strategy, I read a post over on the Lemon Fool the other day about someone who just invested in 4 or 5 ETFs, an S&P 500 tracker, a FTSE 100 tracker and 3 others (Europe, Asia and one other as I recall). Totally passive, very low cost and had done really well they reckoned. Thought it was interesting…

Anyway ATB

Pref


#2300

I sold my S&P tracker 4 or 5 years ago thinking along those lines, after several multi-year high closes. So much for my timing!

Yes I agree with this. You have to stay in part invested, even if you feel things are coming to an end. I think the best way is to reduce exposure, but as ever the golden rule is usually not to buy into a position all at once and equally not to sell it all at once.

Timing is so important, and so impossible, its not the last time we’ll be discussing this aspect of investing. I try to always take some profits when they are there to be had. I used to have a rule where I always took back the whole of my original investment when I hit 100% profit. Its safe, but when you’re selling off your final, much smaller tranche at, say, 700% its difficult to not reflect how much more you would have made if you had stayed with your whole investment.

Occasionally the above rule saved me, like in Rolls Royce purely coincidentally hitting just over 100% on my books before the first of a series of profit warnings. More often it ‘cost’ me future profits. And of course you don’t often have so many investments that do that well, so now I try to hold a bit longer before ‘taking some off the table’.

I think the idea is generally a good one, to take profits from time to time, and certainly better than watching them all disappear as I have seen people do with housing stocks through more than one cycle, although eventually making them back again. I always think, ‘well, you could have done that twice with good timing’ … and that remains the holy grail.


#2301

I shifted to pretty much that little group a few years back once I realised (similar to you) that keeping track of lots of individual stocks was chewing up a lot of my time and that it provided little protection via diversification given the size of my wad.
Since then I just refined a larger group of ETFs and funds to cover a mixture of sectors and world areas… plus a few individual stocks.


#2302

I fail to see any reason why it could.
An uplift of over 40 % on current sp and 50 % above NAV.

What is going to make that happen ?

soi


#2303

Hi Again @J_Westlock, As per a previous post I have noted a divergence in the performance of some of the ETFs that I follow over the last few months and our discussion yesterday made me consider looking at the issue more closely. Most of the ETFs that I hold arent complete index trackers so they DO tend to over and under perform at times, the question is “is this a significant long term performance issue ?”.

So I took a look at FTSE 100 trackers, incuding ZILK and ZWUK which I hold (primarily because they are high yield) comparing them with VUKE, ISF and just for interests sake VWRL (not a FTSE tracker at all). Results over 3 different timeframes as follows:-

5 Years

3 Years

1 Year

I noted two things from this:-
a) That ZWIL performance has been consistently lower in total return terms over all timeframes even though it is far higher yield.
b) That VWRL (the all world tracker) beats them all by a significant margin (even though its yield is peanuts), presumably due to its US holdings which dominate its top 10 (that said it does have 3364 holdings apparently !).

I may therefore have to think about replacing ZWIL with VUKE (I think) and perhaps investing in VWRL at some point.

ATB

Pref


#2304

There was no reason why Lloyds Shares hit 90p in May-October 2015 either :slight_smile:

I missed that opportunity sadly

Not this time, I am here for the House Call

Its a funny ole game saint what goes around comes around again :slight_smile:


#2305

hopium and blind faith.

What is going to make it hit that again anytime soon ?

Fundamentally, financially, macro, politics etc.

soi


#2306

Barclays Analysts Give Lloyds Banking Group (LON:LLOY) a GBX 75 Price Target

https://caspercourier.com/barclays-analysts-give-lloyds-banking-group-lonlloy-a-gbx-75-price-target/

Gloria, you’re always on the run now


#2307

Interesting. I do like these types of analysis.

I noticed that you only had almost 2 1/2 years of performance stats by the way (as well as the 1 year)… rather than 5 and 3 years… I assume that’s because one of the ETFs only started in July 2017?

How does VUKE compare against performance of just IUKD, VMID and ZWUK (over 1, 3 and 5 years)?


#2308

Hi Again @J_Westlock, OK charts as follows:-

1 Year

3 Years

5 Years

Observations

  1. You can see VUKE tracking the FTSE 100 really closely, same with VMID and the FTSE 250.
  2. IUKD (the green line) is a chronic underperformer to be avoided IMHO - just a disaster.
  3. Not a lot to choose between the others though VUKE looks to come out top after 5 years.

I use the Hargreaves website to produce these Total Return charts. Strangely only doing charts of Funds allow you the option to select Total Return, so you just pick a Fund (anything will do), add the ETFs or equities you are interested in and then remove the Fund to get the final chart.

Re missing data, yes I think that some of the BMO Funds havent existed for 5 years as yet.

ATB

Pref


#2309

I have to agree @PrefInvestor1. I’ve had a small holding of IUKD in one of my ISAs for a long while and hadn’t checked too much on it’s performance. Time to replace that. I’d only kept it as it had a decent yield @ 6.75%.

Seems to me that if you want some simple trackers of FTSE 250 and 100 then VMID (yield 3.14%, cost 0.1%) and VUKE (yield 4.83%, cost 0.09%) are hard to beat


#2310

@PrefInvestor1 Do you know if that HL charting is working on a Total Returns basis? I suspect it will just be looking at SP performance. It would be useful to see the disparities if divis (assuming they are reinvested) are also taken into account… taking into account costs wouldn’t be a bad idea either though they don’t appear to do that.


#2311

Hi @regardless, I never put much faith in any analyst views on any stock really, you never know what their agenda is (ie why they are saying what they are saying) or what (if any) analysis they have done to support their conclusion.

I took another look at simply Wall Street today and I see that they have a valuation of 85p which I’m sure you will approve of !

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/banks/lse-lloy/lloyds-banking-group-shares

At least they have a standardised method of evaluating any company and don’t just cherry pick the facts that suit their case as per the Motley Fool.

Looking at a chart for LLOY (sorry can’t post it as on the iPad ATM) but it’s very clear that the EU Referendum knocked the stuffing out of the LLOY share price and it has never recovered. We have seen that Brexit sensitivity work both ways for the stock over the years, a no deal exit being bad for the SP, any kind of deal (or remaining) being a big positive.

That being the case the upcoming election could be critical to your aspirations in respect of the LLOY share price. My guess is either a conservative win or the Lib Dem’s doing really well will likely be positive for LLOY - let’s face it remain would be best for the LLOY share price, followed by any kind of deal. But if Labour were to get in and put Brexit back into the melting point for 18 months to 2 years (?) would probably condemn LLOY to the wilderness for that time.

ATB

Pref


#2312

The website you mention was started by someone with no investing or trading experience ( or minimal at best )
Superb with IT & SEO.
He flooded this board as well as others, getting multiple bans but kept changing username.
Site was riddled with errors a 5 year old should not make.

About 5 or 6 longer term posters including myself pulled him up on the errors, no response.

He achieved his purpose, obtaining a high google search ranking.

Clever businessman, he sucked in enough to make a very profitable business.

soi


#2313

Hi Again @J_Westlock, Includes dividends if you select “Total Return” instead of “Price” (radio buttons on the LHS of the screen) within “Chart Options”.

Try it out for yourself and you’ll see. You can switch the radio buttons and see the chart change as a result.

ATB

Pref

PS Added the following example for VUKE to this post:-

Total Return (1 Year)

Price (1 Year)

Difference even more marked over 5 years. I havent gone so far as to calculate the figures myself in detail to validate the chart, but I think it is likely correct - it looks about right anyway. FTSE is up ~9.5% YTD and yield on VUKE about ~4.8% add those to the starting figures of both charts and they seem about right to me ?.

ATB

Pref


#2314

Hi Pref,

Lloyds has been in the wilderness for nearly 5 years now , so nothing new here :wink:

hahahahahaha

Note to Editor

Regardless is still holding £21,000 cash looking to re-vest before March 2020

50p in December ?

or

60p in December ?

IMHO Lloyds going to be a nice Pension payer starting in 2020 in Juicy DIVIDENDS


#2315

I don’t use HL really for doing research but I just had a quick look seeing as you mentioned HL and I don’t see the option you mention. I can add comparisons and switch between price and % but I don’t see anything about Total Returns or Price? Maybe I’m in the wrong menu item?
Below is type of thing I see.


#2316

Hi Again @J_Westlock, Yes it is confusing, I can see that you have selected an equity investment and gone into the charts for that. You MUST select Funds pick a Fund (any old Fund) and add the equities that you want to compare as comparisons to that, then simply remove the Fund.

I have fallen into the habit of using this one:-

https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/k/kames-absolute-return-bond-class-b-accumulation/charts

Go there and add the equities that you want to compare to that using the “Add To Chart” controls. Then select the Fund and remove it from the chart. Selecting Price or Total Return in Chart Options gives you either a simple Price comparison or a Total Return comparison.

ONLY the Funds comparison feature includes the Total Return facility.

I hope thats clear now.

ATB

Pref


#2317

Ah yes, I see your point, thanks… am just checking out some other ETFs I have that are offering a high yield but seem to be a little underwhelming on the performance side since I last checked them out… will carry that on later on tonight.