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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#2318

Hi @soi, You clearly seem to know things about Simply Wall Street that are news to me. The site has been around a long time at least 2016 and probably earlier ?. I seem to recall it was founded by a couple of Australian guys but I could be wrong. I have read quite a few of the in depth reviews that they produce occasionally and for companies that I am familiar with they have been good. Of course if you want a serious tool then your probably going to have to pay and get Stockopedia or something, but for a free tool I have always thought it was pretty good (well you CAN pay of course but I dont). Gets good reviews.

At the end of the day its just another analysts view though - so of dubious REAL value probably.

ATB

Pref


#2319

Note. @PrefInvestor1

Yes. He also slagged off other people’s sites, potential competitors presumably, which, along with the errors, put me off. There was a lack of basic honesty as well as some fundamental errors.

Now, I see those rubbish, and slightly dishonest, A.I. produced stock reports generated as click bait often referring to Simply Wall Street as a source for the reason for the document. He obviously got himself well intertwined with the online and automated stock fraternity, but I’ve never been able to bring myself to take the site seriously so don’t use it as a source.

Those reports, filled with ratios and apparently detailed knowledge, are shown up to have no human common sense behind them whatsoever - it becomes very apparent when you see them produced on some of the microcaps I hold.

The site itself may be error free and better now, I haven’t looked at it directly for a couple of years or more. I certainly wouldn’t say it has been around a long time. 2016 is but 3 years and it was far from finished last time I looked at it. Yahoo Finance has been around 20 years or more and still struggling to provide a comprehensive free service, especially on UK stocks.


#2320

There is only one Regardless

Watch and learn

Picking up another Dividend tomorrow thanks ( A homebuilder)

Roll on the Quarterly Dividends here Antonio, I am the daddy now

No more, yes sir 3 bags full sir, from the boss from me in 2020

God I do love the big Dividend - unloved British UK stocks

Pays me wages

Brexit pays big money to unloved FTSE 100 shareholders


#2321

Good old BDEV!

Frog


#2322

Hi @Eadwig and @Soi, Can you guys really be talking about the Simply Wall Street that raised A$1.8M from its investors in 2017:-

https://techcrunch.com/2017/06/20/simply-wall-st-raises-1-8-million-from-its-own-customers-to-build-out-investment-advisory-services/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer_us=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_cs=YznRkD4nAARI5B2waYfQWA

And is getting a lot of pretty good reviews on TrustPilot ?

https://uk.trustpilot.com/review/simplywall.st

As I said I have used it a few times to checkout various companies, but it’s not the only source I would use and I treat the information as just an analysts view and therefore not the gospel truth. Had I personally experienced the events that you guys have described then I would have much time for it either - but I haven’t and so I have personally treated it as just another source of free reference material (with all of the risks and issues associated with that).

So I note your warnings and will treat the information offered by the site with even more caution should I ever have cause to use it again.

ATB

Pref


#2323

Hmmmm only because it stole a whole lot from them to start with, as in your case @regardless. Are you in profit right now ?. I suspect not. And as I pointed out in my previous post today, if the EU referendum hadn’t happened and caused Brexit then where would LLOY be today ?. Significantly higher I suspect, same for many other FTSE 100 stocks. So it’s not a benefit it’s a curse.

If Brexit drags on or if no deal re-emerges as a possible outcome then I think you’ll be waiting a very long time for your 80p…

ATB

Pref


#2324

Pref,

Regardless was talking about his divis tomorrow from BDEV. Since 2009 it has returned a bit over 200% with divis reinvested. That’s not bad for a regular FTSE100 stock.

I agree that this return could be dented if Brexit hits us hard.

Frog in a tree


#2325

Hi Frog, Bad day for housebuilders today, BDEV included - down to 626, was 680+ on 15/10. Was there a reason for today’s move when most everything else was up ?.

I saw that Crest Nicholson got thumped after their trading update on 31/10 - reversed almost all of their recent gains. BDEV move related to that ?.

ATB

Pref


#2326

BDEV nothing to worry about. Down 1.13% today but up over 6 mths, ytd and aove 5 yrs. it has been a good payer in terms of both sp growth and yield.

Frog in a tree


#2327

Yes. That’s the one.

The guy posting on here and elsewhere did exactly the same as I would have done when I was promoting web sites professionally.

It was very rough around the edges when he was promoting it here so I’m not saying that certain issues haven’t been ironed out. Personally i’m not a big fan of the USP of a different visual to evaluate a company ‘at a glance’. I remember his PSN analysis was all to cock, as one example, because the ‘return of cash to shareholders’ wasn’t classed as a dividend at the time.

To be fair, it should be noted that several other financial sites made the same mistake for many years with PSN which resulted in their massive, tax-avoiding yield flying beneath the radar for many.


#2328

Its my belief that if there is a Johnson victory then NO DEal is the favourite outcome. I haven’t heard one professional trade negotiator say that a deal can be done between the UK and EU within a year by the transition period end date of 31 Dec 2020.

One explained that the fact the EU and UK were currently the same made it easy, as is often stated, was a “total fallacy”. He explained that all trade deals are NOT about where things currently stand but where they will be in future after potential divergence of policy and how that will be dealt with. Therefore the starting position is of little actual help when it comes to the negotiations.


#2329

There’s been a minor miracle in the housebuilding sector which is that companies have moved from massive growth to heavy dividend payers with no pain (except the Brexit referendum) for shareholders.

I think they got such a shock during the financial crisis nearly all have been much more prudent with levels of debt much lower and M&A activity virtually absent over the last 10 years.

Having said that, I don’t think there is very much capital growth left in them unless inflation, including wages, really takes off in the UK in the next few years. Not impossible as we face an election where both sides appear to be trying to out do each other in spending promises.

It will take immigrant worker skills for any further period of fast growth, the UK just doesn’t have the base in construction workers.

Plus, how far above the average salary can the average house price go (PSN 1:8 BDEV and most others 1:10 due to London exposure) before stalling? Given that historically you were lucky to get a 3.5x salary mortgage and things are supposedly at least as tight today, meaning large deposits are required and saving rates well below inflation rates.

Home ownership, last figures I saw, down from 67% to 55% in the UK. As things stand I would only invest in housebuilders as a dividend payer, unless I was perhaps looking at a 10 year horizon over which some growth in prices is likely to occur.

A lot will depend on government policy (major house builders can build for councils or social housing schemes just as well as the private sector) but the fantastic margins that builders have been achieving may be squeezed either through council order negotiators or practical selling prices versus higher labour prices if cheaper labour from the EU is cut off.


#2330

Well @PrefInvestor1… I just had half hour to check out a few ETFs/Funds playing on the UK markets.
Below is the list ordered by Total Return performance over various periods and where similar ordered by lowest cost.

image

Interestingly, some things standout… like why hold Temple Bar when you could hold VMID and save 0.36% in ongoing costs… ISF edges out VUKE on cost… and the rest are also rans. Certainly, IUKD won’t be in my portfolio by end of week.

Any other UK market ETFs / Funds you think are worth looking at that aren’t on this list?

(I can see I need to do this for all the other markets/sectors now…)


#2331

Hi regardless.

In your case 60p would be better as you have more in that what you have remaining to buy more.

Interesting you chose those levels, was just thinking that if an investor with a very long term view and also some tolerance to risk, wanted LLO shares around 55p mark might be viable, provided one left some back up money to add more on any drop.

A no deal Brexit would hit the sp hard though.

Hope it works out for you.

soi


#2332

Hi Pref

Yes, 100%.

The MO ran along these sort of lines e.g.

"VOD 7% yeild, looks good, take a look " ( That would be the topic post header)
Then no content in the main post area other than a link to his website.

Did it with multiple companies, with errors galore, could not even convert US $ in to GBP in the case of companies declaring in $. eg. GSK, BP, RDSB creating completely false yield figures.

At no point did he give any indication that he was merely pimping his own roughly created web site.
Underhand and lacking in integrity… IMO
Even with the username changes after each ban he was easy to spot.

Not looked at it since so do not know what it is like now.

ATB

soi


#2333

Hi @J_Westlock, You’ve obviously been busy !. A few comments from me:-

  1. Ordering of your list, same first number means equivalent performance (ie 2.1-2.3) and bigger number = lower performance ?.
  2. Never heard of TMPL.L before, as it’s an IT I’ll take a closer look at some point.
  3. Two unit trusts in your list (2.3 & 4.3) I don’t invest in regular Funds at HL because of their 0.45% pa charge. Guessing you have these at some other broker that doesn’t apply such charges.
  4. IUKD we’ve already touched on previously. There was a whole topic on this over on the Lemon Fool just recently. I think that the general view is that its method of selecting the top 50 dividend yield stocks means that it inevitably includes a fair number of “duds” which make it perform badly in capital terms. Certainly I would not be happy holding some of its stock picks !.
  5. WUKD I’ve not heard of but the blurb on HL implies that its another one which picks its holdings purely on dividend yield. So might suffer from the same kind of problem as IUKD ?. Good yield though I note. 100% leverage ?.
  6. VUKE vs ISF. Dont think that the 0.02% cost difference is significant, never going to see that - down in the noise.
  7. ZILK I have decided to replace with one of VUKE (or ISF) or maybe VMID. Not quite sure when. Looks to be underperforming to me.

I’m sure there are other FTSE trackers out there but I doubt that they will beat VUKE / ISF in cost terms, so no real reason to go looking.

I also hold MRCH a FTSE Equity Income IT as I like the yield. Its an AIC Dividend Hero which means it has a long track record of always increasing its dividends year on year.

ATB

Pref


#2334

I hadn’t mean to include my reference but yes… almost. The first number is the main indicator of total return performance and the second is usually separating it from other equivalent/similar performance by the cost (or sometimes a very tiny performance diff).
So, personally I only aim to use some/all of the top 4 in that list ongoing… as I get to make changes to current portfolio.

I started using some UTs only for an account that isn’t tax sheltered (not an ISA or SIPP) and where I’d started to hit issues with ‘offshore funds’… a real pain in the neck when it comes to completing your tax return. The UTs are UK domiciled and not offshore… unlike most ETFs and other funds.

Will add MRCH to the UK list later on… need to do some pruning on my ‘leave alone’ portfolio.


#2335

Hi @Eadwig / All, Yes I keep an eye on housebuilders as it used to be one of my favourite sectors for investing. All the big boys look to have done (and continue to be doing) alright really. Did a chart to have a closer look:-

Barratt has been the best performer by the look of it now 25% up - was over 35% up till it fell back just recently. All the rest all much of a muchness at ~10% up.

I see even Labour are planning to support Help To Buy now till 2027 so just maybe the coast is now clear (or clearer) for an investment in this area ?.

Anyway ATB

Pref


#2336

UK area funds updated to include MRCH:

image


#2337

@Pref you really need to look at the builders over a full cycle, say going back 10 years, dividends are important too, especially latterly.

You’re also missing out 2 of the ‘big 6’ and I’m not sure Crest Nich are included in that number. BOVIS (BVS) are and I can’t get my brain working to pull up the others this morning. Possibly BKG, although they are all London. Bellway, Redrow, possibly. If you’ve got time you might want to update your work.!

I know its a LLOY board but mortgages are important to them and so the help to buy promises (and Johnsons rant against the big 6 in his last conference speech as an M.P.) might become an issue for holders.

Not sure which builders are helped most by help to buy but PSN have always been up front about it being a big part of their sales, but I can’t remember the numbers off the top of my head. Possibly 17% but that might include ‘affordable homes’ sold also.

Note the failure announced today of the government ‘starter homes’ scheme targeted at 23-40 year olds and failing to build one house in the 5 years since it was announced with a target of adding 200,000 and a 20% discount to all qualifying buyers.

I believe there is a trading update from PSN this week (tomorrow?) which could be important given their relatively poor performance over the last year and subsequently the largest builder that has been well off its highs. If they show signs they’ve cracked their quality issues, or at least started to turn them around, that should start to see the gap close share price-wise.

Did anyone find out why Crest Nich had a bad statement the other day? I haven’t had time to look. As usual a lot of pundits were quick to jump on that as possibly an end to this housing cycle, quickly forgetting the recent stellar numbers reported by the likes of BDEV.