Menu
Close

LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#2658

Hi @Eadwig, Was not aware of the WTO issue and when I googled it I did see that 20 countries are saying that there will need to be agreement about how much of the EU WTO quotas the UK gets - clearly a source of dispute. Didnt see anything about NI though ?.

Yes I saw that you’re AIM winner was making further big gains yesterday, but partially offset by a big fall in your pawnbrokers I suspect ?. But thats the peril/advantage of penny stocks isnt it. Mind you my portfolio got whacked a bit by Aviva dropping 5% after an RNS that they issued “to dispel market speculation”. Seems to me to have done exactly the reverse, but anyway - its recovering well today and I have recovered yesterdays losses this morning.

I’ve only got 5 single stocks left now having dumped my GSK in favour of the MRCH IT (as I figured GSK hasnt got much further to run with a rising GBP and the yield was down to 4.6%. MRCH is 5.2% and diversified obviously.). Events like this make me wish I didnt hold any TBH.

HSBA making a good comeback today, up 1.4% as I write this. Confess I am a bit concerned about the impact on them of the Hong Kong riots etc. A lot of their profits come from there I think, Standard Chartered the same - though I dont hold those (well only their prefs).

Completed my experiments with Sky Mobile over the weekend. Actually coverage and raw speed performance at home are slightly worse that with my previous provider Virgin Mobile - but that said I have no problems with browsing or streaming HD video. No lags or buffering. And for no extra cost I get twice the data, the ability to keep all unused data for 3 years and share it with my wife, ability to watch my Sky TV on mobile or iPad without using any of my data allowance and tethering (which Virgin never had) allowing me to use my mobile phone as a 4G router for my iPad. So on balance I am more than happy with the switch.

ATB

Pref


#2659

It’s not an issue.
We can just leave the WTO. Who needs their unelected ruling elite? When we leave it and then take back control… countries around the world will be running to us to trade and buy our services.
Stands to reason dunnit.


#2660

Hi @J_Westlock, Good to hear from you. Have HL got back to you yet on the Total Return charts issue ?.

ATB

Pref


#2661

They did… but only to say they were still investigating it and weren’t yet sure what it was showing for non-funds…

The others you sent seem pretty much in line… if not exact.

I reorganised those tables I did from AJ Bell performance growth charts but wanted to see what HL said first. Will wait for that…


#2662

I have now received an answer from HL by the way.

In short… they’ve discussed the matter with their data provider and they’re now confident the figures we’re viewing do represent total return.
Apparently, it works due to an “oversight”!
Seems to me they were unaware their data provider was giving them that data for ETFs… which is why the feature doesn’t show in the ETF’s factsheet.
Personally, I don’t see why you shouldn’t be able to compare the Total Return from say Shell against the VUKE against Personal Assets Trust… different asset types but still highly comparable in that regard.

The above doesn’t answer why I get different results between say AJ Bell and HL and also from my own anecdotal graph plotting on a s/sheet based on real figures for ETFs I own.

However, seeing as neither HL or AJ Bell take into account ongoing costs but my figures did then there would be a difference between mine and theirs. Why there’s difference between HL and AJ Bell… I still don’t know.
The difference isn’t staggering but it is enough for me to reorder what is best in my little table of what are best when ordered by Total Return.


#2663

Hi Again @J_Westlock, Thanks for the update. How big a difference are we talking about between your own calculations, HL & AJ Bell - are they significant.

Guess I wouldn’t expect them to include any reinvestment costs as what figures would they use for that and the effect must be at least partially dependant one how big a sum is being reinvested ?.

Sounds like you have reordered you’re results table though which makes it sound as if the differences are significant.

ATB

Pref


#2664

Well, today showed so much promise for the SP, keeping above 60p for most of the day yet it eventually finished almost half a percent down. Cue usual comments :wink:


#2665

Hi skiking37,

It would appear that the “prediction” regardless made yesterday :-

“Lloyds and HSBC will move in opposite directions…” is already starting to happen!!!

Lloyds did indeed close slightly down, whereas HSBC ended the day almost 1% higher.

Where next for the banks?

Regards,

Steve


#2666

Complete and utter nonsense as per usual although currently you are right, LLOY and HSBA moving in different directions.

LLOY had a dead donkey bounce to 60 + and as per usual got vertigo, closing 0.44 % down.

HSBA closed + 0.99% up.

IG numbers

ATB

soi


#2667

OK, I just did some quick rechecking.
On reflection I think the main reason I’ve done some reordering is because AJ Bell goes out to 10 years of Total Returns (1, 3, 5 and 10) whereas HL just has 1,3 and 5… so where applicable I;ve also taken that into account.
The results are very comparable between AJ Bell and HL… as you’d expect.
That leaves just me with an issue on relating reality of what I’ve received to what these charts indicate I should have received as a Total Return… so I am putting that down to:
a) I don’t usually reinvest the income in that product whereas (I assume) the broker data is(?)
b) The ongoing costs of holding ETFs/Funds are taken out of my returns… but I suspect they don’t play any part in the data from the brokers.

So as comparison tools they are still interesting.

I will send out the s/sheets when I have time later or tomorrow. A lot of the results for the UK lot are pretty close in terms of pure Total Return.


#2668

Hi @StevesShares, Personally I think that LLOY and HSBA are driven by completely different things, especially ATM.

HSBA I think is being driven by the US-China trade deal, the Hong Kong riots situation and as ever the strength (or weakness) of the GBP against the USD. It makes most of its profits in Asia not the UK and so Brexit and the UK economy aren’t a major driver for its share price. It is almost certainly more sensitive to the direction of US markets than LLOY.

Whereas LLOY is THE barometer for the UK economy and it’s share price appears highly sensitive to Brexit, neither of which are major influences on HSBA I feel.

When everything was looking positive this morning and US Futures were up both shares were doing well. After the US opened the euphoria quickly slipped away, but HK and Asia generally had been up overnight which might have accounted for HSBA doing better by the end of the day ?.

I think you are right they could easily move in totally different directions, but I wouldn’t count on HSBA coming out best if I were you. A conservative win and the Brexit deal done might well be very good for LLOY but do little for HSBA. No US China trade deal plus a further worsening of the situation in Hong Kong could be very damaging for HSBA. Not hard to think of a converse scenario either so very difficult to call.

ATB

Pref


#2669

Brazil are claiming that the deal with northern ireland is breaking WTO discrimination rules (no, I’d never heard of them either).

Something to do with allowing goods across that border potentially without tariffs which would apply to goods coming from anywhere else in the world.

That seems to be unarguably the case. How serious that will be taken I don’t know, but once one exception is made I guess several more will want to follow around the world? I really don’t know, it could just be that Brazil are angling for some leverage on some other agreement… ultimately it will be up to the WTO in Geneva to decide.

The whole Irish border thing has always seemed like an unsolvable paradox to me once Eire and the UK were no longer in the same trade agreement and it looks like Brazil want to make an issue out of it.

Yes, that was a surprise because they’ve always had the nod they were in full compliance with the FCA when others like Wonga were going out of business with thousands of customer complaints to deal with… then suddenly there is some question mark over the interpretation of the rules.

They were oversold, to be honest, because it might be nothing, or even if they have to stop offering this one specific type of loan, it is only a small part of their business. However I missed the bottom or I would have added this morning.

Profit warning from IQE also hit me badly. Have bought on the fall and hope to trade that … it worked last time. We’ll see. Horrible stock I wish I;d never got mixed up in, should have dumped it for a loss when my first trade didn’t work out. have been chasing ever since.

Not just HSBA and STAN. Seems like it is cooling off a little last i heard, but It is the sort of thing that could start off the whole global slide everyone has been waiting for if it gets out of hand along with Trump impeachment, Brexit, Iran and increasing non-compliance with nuclear deal.

Sometimes these things all build up, then a break down in USA/China trade talks or something totally unanticipated and everything goes pear shaped.

Your Sky experiment sounds like it has paid off very well. Good to hear.

P.S. AFC down today after doing a very slick quick money raise with shares issued valued @20p which at the time was 22% discount to market price … ‘in order to help them fulfill orders for new E.V. charging unit to be demoed on 6th Dec’.

Well, so far as we know, they don’t have any customers yet, so I’m optimistic that is good news, especially as they already raised money earlier in the year to take this product to market. I’m hoping they have more interest than was anticipated.

Market decided otherwise, so I added a tranche for trade (at least i think i have, I haven’t had time to check if limit order fired @22p towards the end of the day. Will be disappointed if I don’t make 15% on that in the next 2 weeks. Could be getting too greedy … we’ll see. Still have 3 tranches remaining @3.82p average, so pretty hard to go badly wrong from here (famous last words!).


#2670

Hi Pref,

I think it will take time for both Lloyds and HSBC shares to make significant gains, and I really don’t know which will do best in the short (1 year) , medium (3-5yeras) or long term (5,10 15 or 20 years).

When management teams change as significantly as HSBC has over recent years - i.e. new Chairman, CEO(s), CFO, Company Secretary and other significant appointments, there is bound to be a new focus, which may well involve some difficult decisions in the short/medium term before real progress is made.

I see that you have recently dumped your GSK shares - well they also have a relatively new senior management team - I believe the (female) CEO was appointed in April 2017, and the CFO and Chairman are much more recent appointments, both previously being members of the HSBC Group Board of Directors.

So much for HSBC telling us that the Group CFO was retiring, because he took on a very similar role at GSK.

Also the most senior independent non-executive director below Mark Tucker is now the non-executive independent Chairman of GSK (since September this year, I believe) but is also still a Director of HSBC until early next year.

Perhaps that’s why you sold out?

Although a company’s quoted yield may change, reflecting movements in its share price, the actual yield anyone receives will depend on the price paid for those shares, and if more than one tranche, the average price of the holding.

I have one block of HSBC shares (the Rights Issue) yielding about 14%, whereas other much more expensive blocks yield far less - possibly as low as about 4%, but thankfully the average yield
(this year) is in excess of 6%.

The quoted yields are only a guide to investing at that price at that point in time, and obviously if dividends are increased (or decreased) the yield will change.

With companies reporting and declaring dividends in US$, the exact yield is only known once the appropriate exchange rates are announced.

Time will tell how well GSK, HSBC, Lloyds and many other companies perform.

By the way, I watched something on the BBC at the weekend recorded in Reading Town Hall - were you there, singing or in the audience?

It was a gospel choir competition, broadcast as Songs of Praise on BBC 1, and I think there will be a second programme next weekend - I assume from the same venue, as I expect it was all recorded in one session.

Regards,

Steve


#2671

Some more @PrefInvestor1

I found out that with HL, the charges levied by the fund managers are already taken into account in the price or total return you see on their charts.
HL charting doesn’t show any charges levied by HL for holding investments with them however… so that might be the difference that I’m seeing… plus the fact that my own calcs didn’t have the divi reinvested… so for a long period of time it will be out.

Tables anyways ordered by Total Return taking into account, 1,3,5 & 10 years (not all AUMs completed as yet…):

UK

US

image

Asia

image

Global

image

Europe

Emerging Markets

image

Japan

image


#2672

Hi @J_Westlock, Fantastic. Thanks very much for all your work on this.

I am thinking of replacing my IAPD with VMID as the GBP / AUD rate looks likely to drop significantly if the RBA cuts rates - which it is expected to do soon. Planning to use your tables to pick a replacement, possibly VMID, VWRL or VHYL…

ATB

Pref


#2673

Hi @StevesShares, I look at yield rather differently from the way you have described.

To me there is what I call the “Initial yield”, this being the yield achieved through your initial purchase. To be accurate this needs to be calculated with inclusion of broker commission and stamp duty – but for the sake of this discussion we can approximate it by taking the dividends in pence (as payable at the time of purchase) and dividing by the share price in pence. If multiple purchases are involved then your share price average after the latest purchase should be used together with the latest dividend figure.

Then there is what I call the “Current yield” which is given by the dividends in pence (as expected for the current year) divided by the current share price in pence. The “Current yield” figure reduces if the dividend is kept the same and the share price rises significantly. Or it may increase or decrease if the dividend amount changes. As this figure defines the actual income that you will receive on the current capital value of your investment, to me this is the most important figure.

I bought my GSK holding in March 2018 at a price of around 1380 as I recall. The annual dividend payable then was 80p and it hasn’t changed at all since then. So my initial yield was 80/1380x100 = 5.8%. Just recently the price got up to 1782p at one point and I sold at ~1750p. At that time the current yield was 80/1750x100 = ~4.57%.

Why did I sell ?. Several reasons:-

  1. The GSK share price is very sensitive to the GBP / USD exchange rate due to its foreign earnings. If the GBP is going to appreciate to 1.35-1.40 as analysts are predicting in various scenarios then the GSK share price is going to fall.
  2. Personally I doubt that the GSK share price can go much higher. 1780 is close to their all time high and I really don’t expect to see it at 1800+. Could be wrong but I don’t think so.
  3. My capital invested in GSK was now only earning ~4.57%. By investing elsewhere I could get quite a bit more. Actually I bought the MRCH investment trust at 469 giving me a 5.2% initial yield and a more diversified investment. More annual income therefore.

I monitor the current yield on all of my investments and if I can significantly increase my income by “yield hopping” in this way then I do the trade – especially if the replacement investment is one which I think has a better chance of capital appreciation.

I am completing a similar trade this Thursday replacing one renewable energy trust UKW (which again I think has topped and the yield has dropped to ~4.5%) with another NESF which looks to me to have better growth prospects and is paying ~5.2%.

All of which incurs trading costs that I know that you don’t approve of, but if I get more income and capital appreciation these costs will be more than covered.

These operations are all part of the run of the mill operation of my portfolio.

ATB

Pref

PS No singing for me, not in public anyway…!


#2674

I thought the all time high was 2333 back in early 1999. 1780 is still some way short of that level.

If I compare the GSK sp behaviour with the GBPUSD exchange rate there appears to be a mixed picture. The GBPUSD exchange rate currently is back to the same level it was in May having fallen by 7.5% at its worst level. The GSK sp rose about 8% as the exchange rate dropped, however the sp rise continued by a further 5% even whilst the exchange rate improved back to its previous level, ending up about 13%.

It is hardly a consistent correlation beyween GSK sp and GBPUSD exchange rate.

GSK is my fourth largest holding, at just over 4% of my portfolio, so it is at a level where I am giving consideration to reducing the size of the holding, so appreciate reading diverse views on future sp movements.


#2675

Hi @bowman, My apologies I used HL to look for the GSK All Time High figure and their charts only go back 10 years. Looking on yahoo (who go back further) it seems that they were higher than 1780 before 2002 but NEVER since then. So you are correct 1780 isn’t their ATH, it’s their highest value since ~2002, long enough for me.

Regarding correlation of the GSK share price I found it very noticeable while I was holding these last few months that an upward move in the GBP frequently resulted in the share price falling and vice versa. I am not claiming 100% correlation but I am of the personal opinion that if the GBP/USD strengthens that the GSK share price will fall. But it is only my opinion.

The yield situation I described is pretty unarguable though surely ?. And let’s face it there have long been worries that the current dividend was not sustainable and might well be cut.

The income point is my primary reason for selling. The other two are just supporting factors that I think are relevant. As always you are perfectly entitled to hold a different opinion.

ATB

Pref


#2676

Interesting… not far off (GSK red… GBPUSD blue):


#2677

OK

For 2 days it has been a good short at 60p +

Thanks

soi