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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#2678

Hi @J_Westlock, Yes nice chart, illustrates my point pretty well. I dont think its anything very surprising or controversial is it ?. Companies who mainly earn their income overseas are adversely affected if the GBP strengthens and vice-versa. Pretty sure you would see the same effect in many other FTSE 100 foreign earners. Look at today by way of example GBP down, GSK up while most others things are down. Much the same goes for AZN the other big pharma I think - but Ive never held that so i dont follow it too closely.

Did the market just give its verdict on yesterdays ITV election interview or is this US-China trade deal disappointment ?. Most financials being whacked quite hard…

Still a down day might give me the opportunity to pick up one of my target ETFs with the cash from my IAPD sale yesterday.

ATB

Pref


#2679

@PrefInvestor1 and @J_Westlock

I would imagine most of the big FTSE100 foreign earners will show a similar correlation with the strength of GBP apart from where there has been some very significant company specific news.

Without having done any actual charting, that is the sense I’ve had pretty much since the GBP was devalued after the referendum … although it took a little while for it to become clear.

From the chart it seems like the correlation in this case has broken down somewhat in the last few weeks. I’ve had that impression myself more generally as markets are hopeful of some end to uncertainty, but the overall index still moves with GBP it seems - its just that GBP has been largely flat around 1.28-1.30 over the last few weeks.


#2680

I apologise if I was being a trifle pedantic about the all time high, and agree that 20 years is a long time ago, and that potentially GSK is a different beast to what it was then. I admit that I actually use the peak from the previous 5 years as one on the crtiteria in my stock evaluation process, although I also look at the longer picture before I make my final choice.

I was not saying that the previous correlation between GBPUSD and foreign earning stocks was not there, since it clearly has been, but rather, as Eadwig has also pointed out, that this correlation has broken down recently for GSK - thereby implying that other Company specific factors might have come into play.

I totally understand the primary reasons for your proposed change in holding. I have also been making subtle changes to my portfolio to increase the proportion of income stocks, which is now up to 50%. My overall yield is 4.7% at the moment. GSK is one of the holdings which has been under review for some time, so I appreciate hearing other peoples views.


#2681

I always wonder with charting at what point you disregard previous highs or lows. Never, according to some technicians, but surely if a business is a different beast by then that doesn’t make any sense.

Very few large businesses are operating with the same products in the same markets after such a period … and if they are, the revenues they are earning may no longer equate in the same way to whatever currency they are listed in… not to mention taking into account general inflation over such a long period.


#2682

LLOY flying again, down.

Yet it appears no investor here took the opportunity to sell out at 60.5 + at which level it was very overbought and then buy back cheaper.

Much emotion.

soi


#2683

I waiting for 80p soul man :slight_smile:


#2684

@PrefInvestor1 and @J_Westlock

As I suspected I think we are seeing a reaction to last nights election debate, see link below:-

I didnt watch it last night but am doing so now on Youtube. Only 6 stocks positive on the FTSE 100 ATM.

Personally looking to pick up GBDV & VMID at good prices as a result of this drop Have a limit order set to buy GBDV at 2650, thinking about 3190/3200 (?) for VMID looking at the charts over the last month - but still a good 1% above that ATM.

ATB

Pref


#2685

Correct Sadly Boris Johnson was below pair last night

He needs to rest IMHO

Hence the drop in Lloyd’s share price today


#2686

Are the price drops down to the bore draw last night (didn’t watch it as I had some paint to watch dry) or is it more to do with the trade war that can’t make its mind up whether there is an agreement or not? I base this on the fact just about all the FTSE 100 is down.


#2687

I was waiting for 62p initially. Perhaps I am too greedy like when I should have sold at 66p and bought back at 48p. If only I had that crystal ball and balls of steel :wink:


#2688

Pref,

The fall in the stock market this morning is more likely a response to The Groper upping the ante on his tariff war.

The debate last night was what I would describe as a “bore draw”. Clearly, neither candidate inspires confidence and both were laughed at at points. I doubt whether it moved markets one iota.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#2689

Your’ve just repeated what I said :thinking:

Great minds :wink:


#2690

Wasn’t it the case, that if Boris had comfortably won the upper hand last night, which he was predicted to do, thus meaning a more likely Tory win in the GE and therefore more certainty around Brexit (whether you agree or not), then Sterling and the FTSE would rally.

As it was, it was a much closer outcome and therefore uncertainty remains; ergo a drop in Sterling and shares.

That was my take.

Not that I watched it as I couldn’t be bothered to hear Boris’s lies and Corbyn with a peabrain only capable of repeating chants and slogans. Watched Wales v Hungary instead.


#2691

Hi frog,

I wanted to think that the FTSE fall today was solely down to Pochettino being sacked by Spurs.

Am I wrong in that thinking?

Best regards

TJ


#2692

Really? I though Corbyn wiped the floor with Boris. Much of what he had to say may be a little unappealing (unpalatable even) to many, especially those of us on a financial web site discussion board, but he was consistent and positive whereas Boris just mumbled nothing much at all.

Don’t think Boris did his cause any good at all.

Then again, I’m not sure how much/how many people are actually swayed by these ‘debates’. The vast majority have already made up their minds IMO.

Regards,
ITDYA


#2693

I’m gutted, to be honest.

We’ve sacked a manager for losing the dressing room, who was disgruntled for having no money to spend, and replaced him with a manager famous for losing dressing rooms who gets disgruntled when he isn’t backed in the transfer market! Oh, and paying him £15m.


#2694

You are trivialising this now. This has nothing to do with Poch going, more Mourinho coming back to EPL


#2695

Yes undoubtedly that’s the case and as others have mentioned the FTSE100 is particularly prone to this.
I’m aware that a large proportion of profits for FTSE100 companies is made in $ and if sterling weakens then $ revenues, once converted back into £ are worth more.

However… that is incredibly simplistic… and I find it odd that the effect is so pronounced tbh.
All of the FTSE100 companies use currency hedging extensively for instance (they also don’t have to immediately convert foreign currency back to £) and I’m also not 100% on the feedback loop of how a company’s SP is driven up/down (ie. via buying and selling) in direct response to the continual fluctuations in currency pairs when there are continual revenues being earned in foreign currency and only periodic distribution of divis and periodic issuing of company results/ announcements.


#2696

Hi Skiking 37

So you are suggesting that today’s FTSE fall is down to Spurs hiring Mourinho rather than the sacking of Poch?

It’s all getting too much for me I think I will have to go and lie down for a while…

Kind regards

TJ


#2697

Well, it had an adverse affect on my breakfast as I spat most of it out when I heard the breaking news that he was back in the Premiership - one of his first games (4th Dec) is back at Old Trafford. Ironically, he will (or at least should) get a good reception from United fans.

Sorry to discuss non LLOY events but this thread covers everything!