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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#2758

It could just as easily go the other way.

What is your position ?

What is hear from trade ?

soi


#2759

https://stockdailydish.com/barclays-set-to-reveal-profits-fall-next-week-while-lloyds-expected-to-unveil-20-surge/

Anyone got any thoughts on this?

ATB
K


#2760

Dingbat
Closed in Europe… Open in USA and positive…but Thanks Giving Hols in offing.
Salutations


#2761

As far as I know, LLOY gave its 3rd quarter update some weeks ago and its full year results are not due out until next February so unsure as to where your article gets its “prophesy” from.

Perhaps soi who has a better knowledge on these matters can enlighten us.

Kind regard

TJ


#2762

Yep… it’s almost a year out of date!


#2763

Quite right… this appears to be some news gathering service site and its rounded up info from last February… no news until Feb 2020 now I’m afraid… unless the Board issue an announcement to not vote Labour because of the ensuing financial apocalypse it would bring.


#2764

https://stockdailydish.com/barclays-set-to-reveal-profits-fall-next-week-while-lloyds-expected-to-unveil-20-surge/

Hi, just got back from Aldi. Thanks @Trader_Jack and @J_Westlock.

Thank goodness for that, yet it had today’s date on it. The last thing I need is for lloy to announce a 20% profit surge just after I’ve sold some shares and wanting to get back in with a profit. That would be insult added to the injury of today even by my standards. The sell off
I’d hoped for didn’t happen today, maybe tomorrow… then let the profits surge…

Have a good evening
K


#2765

Yep, the AI units haven’t taken over yet… teething issues.
First the UK takes back control… then AI takes over.


#2766

[quote=“J_Westlock, post:2765, topic:1144884”]
Yep, the AI units haven’t taken over yet… teething issues.
First the UK takes back control… then AI takes over.

:blush:


#2767

Hi @J_Westlock, Well if you want to stay in the EU then surely the Lib Dem’s are your best bet ?. Or don’t you think that they have any chance of getting in ?. That’s probably how I will vote. I’m sorry but having lived under Labour in my youth with their taxing and spending, unions, strikes and secondary picketing, nationalisation and bureaucracy - I could never ever vote for them.

Re the windfall tax on the oil companies. Of course I am biased in that I hold both BP and Shell but I genuinely think that they have cleaned up their act over the years and there are many at least equally culpable industries out there in terms of climate change. In fact with their growing renewable activities these two companies are even starting to do something positive, starting their long term migration to cleaner energy companies I think. Both have strong lobbying groups in place driving them in this direction.

Regarding nationalisation, while I agree there is no real competition in power and water (maybe a bit more in broadband) I am also firmly of the view that nationalised companies with a civil service like workforce and relying on tax money to fund all investment is never going to be a good solution. Nor is it ever going to have sufficient funds to do the job, not without excruciatingly high levels of tax. And nationalised organisations don’t have a great record of providing a good service. And will we get a much cheaper service ?. I’ll believe it when I see it. All my personal view obviously, feel free to think differently – sounds like you do.

Coming back to renewables for a second, you expressed an interest in this sector a while back. I have spent some time this week considering two renewable energy investments, see below:-

The first was Greencoat Renewables (ticker GRP) an AIM listed Irish company (priced in euros) that operate wind farms. They were at 1.25 last week but are doing a placing at 1.13 for institutional investors so the price has dropped to 1.15-1.16ish. Still a 12.5% premium (NAV is ~1.03) but much better than it was and personally I’d expect the price to bounce back. Yield is just over 5% BUT there is 20% Irish withholding tax (WHT) to contend with which I won’t be able to reclaim from an ISA. No stamp duty, no FX fee to purchase even though it’s priced in euros (did some dummy trades on HL today) market maker covering that apparently. The WHT is putting me off this one, and I favour the second opportunity.

The second is Octopus Renewable Infrastructure Trust (ticker ORIT) which is trying to raise £250M in an IPO scheduled for next week. They are the same group who run Octopus Energy a well known electricity provider specialising in renewable energy. Sounds like ORIT will do wind and solar. Issue price should be ~100p no stamp duty or commission and pretty well zero premium. Yield about 3% in the first year, targeting 7-8% longer term they say. Full details available at either the LSE or HL in the IPOs area of their web site. Some risks with a new IPO obviously !.

Please DYOR if you are interested in either of these. I have personally decided to take a small holding in ORIT, but then I really like renewables……

ATB

Pref


#2768

Thanks for letting me know about Octopus. I will take a look at that IPO. Incidentally, I got switched (yet again) to that crew just recently when they bought out Flow Energy.
Actually, these constantly changing suppliers are a source of me being a bit scathing of their privatisation but that’s won’t stop me trying to make a few quid out of them.

I have a limit order in for FSFL but it never gets low as I’m prepared to pay.


#2769

How did you do under Tony Blair?


#2770

The continued failure of small companies to enter the market and seriously challenge the big, often government backed, utility providers is one of the biggest failures of privatisation.

My dad’s premises are currently on Ovo but when it comes to admin they have been unbelievably bad.

There was a government report that said that these companies are basically just billing outfits, very few are involved in generation or delivery, and it recommended that prices they charge should be squeezed down to magin levels that reflect this.

The problem is when you are working on margins of less than 2%, there is little fat for any exceptions when it comes to customers who don’t fit into an easy admin slot, and loss-leading products to help build a customer base to gain economies of scale at which such margins ‘might’ be able to pay have increasingly been leading them to go out of business.

Perhaps the billing side of the business being re-nationalised might actually work. It would have economies of scale, no shareholders to pay divis to, benefits for workers are basically already very high in the older utilities.

So far as generation goes I can’t see nationalisation working very well and would probably slow down green energy take-up. When it comes to delivery Nat Grid seem to be doing a reasonable job and I can’t see any reason to break-up that highly regulated monopoly.

Trains. That is a different matter. The country shouldn’t even try to run them for profit, no country with a decent rail system does so.


#2771

Hi @Eadwig, Well my references were really to the Labour governments of the 60s and 70s, and to the labour movement (especially the unions) at the time of the miners strike - but they weren’t in power then. Blair was very moderate and scarcely Labour at all, certainly can’t compare him with Corbyn and McDonald.

ATB

Pref


#2772

I’d say he (Blair) was Labour through and through and it is Corbyn that is not. Unfortunately it is Corbyn on offer this time around which isn’t helping defeat the Brexit crisis facing the nation, imho.


#2773

Hi Again @Eadwig, Yes there are many of these billing companies that are very bad at admin and some still worse at customer service. I used to stick with fixed price deals from one of the big six but have switched to Bulb now at my daughters suggestion (got some money off my bill for switching). They seem OK but we haven’t had any winter bills with them yet. They have a variable tariff, thinking I might switch back to a fixed one soon.

I read up a bit on Octopus as they have some interesting tariffs and are another of the increasing group of green providers who supply only renewable energy. That was when I was looking round at Economy 7 type tariffs that I might use to take best advantage of my solar panels, pretty well given up on that idea though.

ATB

Pref


#2774

The economy 7 idea of basically trying to spread demand more across 24 hours was a really good idea that seemed to fall away after privatisation.

I never knew much about it until I moved to Sheffield and met people who timed things like washing machines and dryers to do cycles during the cheaper rates and, of course, also used the storage radiators. I was amazed how much they saved on their bills compared to me.

I believe businesses can still get these rates. The whole reason the conversation first came up in Sheffield was the amount of high-electricity usage industry that still existed back then that worked over night in Sheffield and which I could hear when I lived in the east end in my first yer as a student.

Industry now say the UK has some of the highest utility bills in the world and it reduces their competitiveness, although its a long time since I saw any figures on the subject.

As Electric Vehicle re-charging becomes more prevalent peak demand is forecast to rise in the future so some joined-up thinking on the whole issue of smoothing demand would be very welcome, I think.

Coincidentally I was looking at an announcement by Iberdrola (Scottish Power but mainly a Spanish provider) implementing a multi-mWh battery storage, charged from solar panels during the day, to give back-up to a region of Spain that often loses power due to extreme weather conditions. Unfortunately, the unit (about the size of a shipping container) only provides around 5 hours of backup, which is depressingly small for those of us hoping this sort of technology has moved on in recent times.

It isn’t clear from the press release if the 5 hours mentioned is all it can do when providing the whole demand for the area or if the limit is due to the technology and how much can be stored and for how long. I do know that lithium-ion batteries do have inherent issues in this area.

AFC have a design of product of similar size (physical and output) which, I believe uses cheap electricity from renewables to produce the hydrogen, then can kick in when needed to provide power to the grid. They call this a ‘storage’ product, but it is a kind of proxy really, but possibly has legs in that it could output for much,much longer.

There are many other technologies besides hydrogen fuel-cells all being researched to crack this storage problem. I’m optimistic that one or more of them will be ultimately successful and cost-effective to store intermittent wind and solar power which seem to be the ‘renewable’ technologies that have won out and are going to be the main power generators of the foreseeable future.

Oh dear. We’ve gone all off topic again! Sorry everyone.


#2775

Recessions are a measure of overall economic performance and viability. Since 1955, when they were first measured, there have been 14 recessions and contractions (by year or quarter) and 10 of them occurred under Tory governments.
Source: https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/business-economics/economics/debunking-the-myth-that-tories-are-better-than-labour-with-the-economy/19/11/

It’s ok to provide anecdotal evidence of our own experiences but they are often warped by time and a Media that continually tells a largely one-sided story.


#2776

Maybe. Across European states there’s no consistent approach on how they do this. The UK though has the most fragmented system probably in the world and it doesn’t benefit from that.
Eg. Most people would say the Swiss rail network runs well and that is very much based on the main state operator, Swiss Federal Railways.


#2777

@J_Westlock
That was my point, yes. We’re a small state geographically speaking and it seems obvious that the rail network should be managed from one centre. Even in larger states, like USA, there are only really 4 private railways … and they are a complete mess. I know, I’ve used 'em (often spending most of the journey on buses between different sections of the line).

What we really have in the UK is the infrastructure returned to public ownership after terrible private company failures (by Railtrack - remember them?)and a number of major routes, with some local ones thrown in, which are heavily subsidised by the government anyway. Even that doesn’t work and the government has to keep taking major routes back into public ownership for ‘temporary’ periods.

When I was a kid I could wander down to the railway station, look at the timetable and choose where to travel for the day. It was a fantastic feeling of freedom. Nowadays if you do that you end up paying a phenomenal amount compared to someone who booked 3 weeks in advance, probably don’t get a seat and all too often the train doesn’t turn up on time either.

I’ve also been in in the embarrassing position of paying on one train with no problem at all for a return ticket, changing trains half way to my destination and then being accused of attempting to fair dodge because I didn’t have a ticket (a two carriage train with 3 other passengers on it). I had to pay for a single journey which was basically double the price I would have paid if I’d bought the ticket in advance. How do occasional users know about this stuff? And why should they have to?

There was plenty wrong with British Rail - being from York, Eastern region HQ, I know this all too well - but ultimately the service was better and most of the problems were to do with the carriage works anyway. There is no need at all to re-nationalise providers of locomotives or rolling stock. A nationalised rail system can tender to private companies for that and get the best deal.

I’m talking non-commuter journeys here. I know you have problems in that area - did you know that almost all commuter trains are subsidised by local Transport Authorities? Many commuter trains would not exist without these subsidies which would force more traffic onto the roads slowing down everyone and the country’s productivity, ultimately.

Off topic again. Whoops!