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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#2798

Libs have absolutely no chance of winning GE.

IMHO most likely outcome is a TORY majority. The You Gov poll today is very interesting as it predicts a TORY majority of 68 seats and You Gov correctly predicted a hung parliament in the last GE against what most others thought.

A TORY majority and sorting BREXIT may see Lloyds SP at least temporarily approach 70p.

A hung parliament is of course still possible where I believe we would be back to square one & likely impact on Lloyds SP would be sub 60-55p.

God forbid a Labour win & I reckon we would see sub 50p revisited!


#2799

Dingbat
Definite signs squeeze above 60.00 is on.
This could hold (and even increase to 66.00 ) until year end and then some.
PLUS
All indications Boris is going to prevail.
Interesting times ahead.
Market says …“Follow the money.”
Salutations


#2800

Dingbat
Short answer …Yes …Positive
C La G…talking “Expansion”.
Could go to $ I.35.
Salutations


#2801

A Tory majority will see a blip up on an end to uncertainty …

… as time goes on, the realisation that Brexit will NOT be sorted (in terms of trade agreements) and a No Deal approaches, we will see LLOY heading downwards, increasingly quickly.

That’s my prediction. If you are holding and agree with it you should decide now what to do if such a scenario plays out.


#2802

Eadwig, I agree with what you are saying on the unresolved situation. Equally if Labour win, heaven forbid, then we will not only have another year of frustrating fannying about with pseudo negotiations with the EU, followed by an illegitimate 2nd referendum and then another transition period, followed by another failure to agree a trade deal followed by … possibly another general election and eventually the UK will look like Italy, a failed economy trapped inside the Euro that it will never be able to support.
It looks like failure for the UK either way, because we haven’t got the leaders in this country that will allow self government that is desperately needed.

There is also I guess another reason that supports your prediction that Lloyds could fall, and that is the failure of Deutsche bank - the banking system is so intertwined that none will escape – every day I hold this pup, I imagine I will wake up one morning to another 2008 – still it is a risk and my only exposure to banks – long may it stay in tact.

Games


#2803

Games,

It seems to me that this Italianisation of British politics is the outcome of a civil war in the Tory party. Divorced from party affiliations, it still looks like the country is split down the middle with those saying Brexit is a mistake having a small majority over those that still support Brexit. I still say that any deal should be put to a confirmatory vote.

Cheers,

Frog


#2804

Or… we put an end to Leaving the EU next year with a vote to Remain. Great. Then the markets and GBP really will rally.


#2805

Very convenient when losing a vote, to argue it isn’t valid – very dangerous situation.


#2806

J - But a vote to remain wouldn’t be valid now would it, given the original vote was ignored. So we would need a third or a fourth - The argument is nothing but ridiculous.


#2807

You mean that we might have zimmer riots Games???

I think it is also very dangerous to impose a very hard version of Brexit on such a very tiny majority, predominently the older vote, when a large majority of the under 45s are in favour of Remain.

The pressure and campaigning to reverse Brexit will continue until we get the job done.

All the best,

Frog in a tree


#2808

Not really. Every year the largest grouping that voted for Leaving the EU gets less… and the largest grouping of those who want to Remain grows.
If we get #BrexitRef2 next year… that is precisely what will happen… as most Brexiteers well know.
And as I said… the UK and European markets and GBP would all rally.

Of course, UKIP/Brexit Party/whatever Farage wants to call his next Party… will still have a presence… and that’s fine… but they will be as welcomed in a few years time as a fart in a spacesuit.


#2809

Nice dream, but it won’t happen – you will want the EU for a very long time, as the UK will never be a settled place until we have left the EU.


#2810

Well it’s had a v good run - 58.7 to 62.69, up 6 8% in 5 days of straight rises. It’s due a drop, hopefully to 60 so that I can get back in. Trump/ Hong Kong might help, needs something more though I think…
ATB
K


#2811

Inexplicably Deutsche just kept on buying sub-prime even when others had realised and were desperately selling - and Deutsche was the only buyer left.

I assume it will survive as it has stayed afloat this long. Even if it doesn’t, the intertwining of banks is supposedly much less now.

Lloyds will continue to suffer in the scenario I paint because, like any retail bank, it will generally reflect the state of the economy within which it operates. UK prospects are pretty bleak after a Brexit with no compensating new trade agreements with any major economy closer than several years away.

I’ve inherited some LLOY shares. I’ll sell on the blip (a complete guess this but I imagine the ‘loss of uncertainty’ boost will be gone quite soon into the new year as the real Brexit negotiations start) and if I were to stay with a bank I’d look for one with international earnings in preparation for the GBP’s inevitable decline.

Given the general back-drop of low interest rates around the world, I’m not sure banking is really a sector to be in at all for the foreseeable future.


#2812

Depends what you mean by “settled” I guess but if you also are inferring that one day after we leave the EU the UK will be “settled” and we will all be basking in our island paradise, drawbridge up, immigrants blocked and all drawing 10%+ dividends then you are going to be very wrong.

This is a huge disaster for the UK and the price is yet to be paid. Until now we have only experienced ill effects down to Brexit uncertainty. If we do leave then that will be replaced by the real ill effects of Leaving.

Not a single Government or independent report/analysis has ever forecast the UK being better off for leaving the EU. All just predict how much worse off we will all be.

So all enjoy your blip when the Tories get back in… a small blip if via hung Parliament, a larger blip if by a Tory majority… because after that… if still invested… you will be directly exposed to the UK economy experiencing more major uncertainty for at least a year… before either exiting on WTO terms… or having more extensions, more uncertainty for negotiations on the Deal. And if leaving on WTO terms prepare for a big slide… if after several years we get a Deal negotiated… then we will simply be worse off than today.

Not great either way you look at it. So if you think things will be settled… dream on… someday all those groups promised they’d be better off are going to come hunting for those who promised it.
Can’t wait for that one.


#2813

You can pretty much predict it if you look at the demographics. I don’t need to because of the luck I have experienced all my life.

Basically, by the time I’m eligible to draw my state pension and become part of ‘the grey vote’ that has been favoured over all others for years, the largest voting block will be the millenials who are going to come looking for payback for their costly education and savage curtailing of travel freedoms, and the general selfishness of pension settlements they can never hope to see themselves as well as the ruining of the economy and the selling off of assets to line the pockets of the one generation.

So, I’ll get stuffed by Westminster at that time, as I was stuffed when I believed them about freedom of movement and as I was stuffed when my first 4 years of working life were completely wasted after training for an engineering career which the Tories threw away with the bathwater.

I’m so unlucky that if I try to get a special ‘retired persons’ visa that would help me with some of the freedom of movement stuff that it actually states in big letters that IF YOU WERE BORN BEFORE 196X then click here for much better terms!

You guessed it, I was born in 196X and NOT 196X-1 or any other earlier year. missed out by about 100 days, just as when my 25 year endowment matured, that I was going to use to pay for a new home abroad, the Brexit referendum happened 1 month previously and my money was suddenly worth 20% less. Out by 33 days after 25 years.

As I’ve said here before, Westminster has always screwed me, yet I’ve managed to survive and thrive, especially on the back of EU grants given to the poorest areas of the EU after Westminster had denied them cash to improve their infrastructure. I had to work hard to earn the money, but at least the EU gave us a chance and we took it with both hands and were very grateful.

Thank you, EU. Your vision is so much wider than that of Westminster’s.


#2814

I was expecting turbulence today, then realised it was thanksgiving in US.
Also, let’s not overlook North Korea has again fired a missile. Then a possibility of a friday sell off.

I would not rush into US stocks today.
(edit: typo)


#2815

The LLOY sp has had a strong rise.
I feel it might give back a bit of that soon.

ATB

soi


#2816

Work your magic @soi and get it down to 60 please … Lol


#2817

Hi KD01

I will do my best.

I do think you will get an opportunity for another buy at 60p or so.

Very tough call though with election so near.

GL

soi