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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#2838

Forgive me.

Your trading suggests do not really care what LLOY is actually worth.

Your trading suggests that you will continue to “invest” ( for clarity: the quotes indicate that I suspect the meaning of that word in this context - not that you have ever used the word) provided the price continues to be volatile. I think that is true but of course I may be wrong, as ever. e.g yesterday at 8:44 62.24 short, 16 minutes later 62.04 close. (source: barcplus.proboards.com). I note that Blackrock and Harris have over 3.5 bn shares - to me that is “investing” and they are “investors”, not those having a CFD or spread bet with IG or other provider for 16 minutes.

Some of us actually care not only what it will be worth in 5 - 10 - 15 - 20 years time but also that it will continue to provide us with a sustainable income for years to come. From my reading here and on barcplus.proboards.com you do not take dividends from Lloyds. So I, @regardless and possibly others on this board approach LLOY from a totally different perspective. I, for one, continue to believe that Lloyds Bank, Bank of Scotland, Halifax Building Society, Scottish Widows, MBNA and all the other subsidiaries listed on page 289 of the accounts will provide me with a reasonable income for years to come - particularly those shares I picked up at 26p some years ago.

I am also fairly sure Antonio and his teams will ensure that the business will continue long after I am dead. They have already survived the financial crisis, paid the Government back, and the PPI fiasco, etc.

However, I am equally sure that the stock markets around the world will continue to provide you with all the volatility you need. Not only on this share … but on most stocks traded on all exchanges.

plm


#2839

Ah well, maybe not certain … but pretty close.

plm


#2840

Hi @Eadwig and @J_Westlock, Hi guys bit of a brutal end of the week for the FTSE 100 eh ?. Down ~0.9%. LLOY down almost 2.5% today I note (sorry, just a feeble attempt to stop this post being completely off topic as usual !).

I have done all together too much buying and selling this week, but still managed to end the week on a plus score which always makes me feel better. Was up nicely before today but then the FTSE drop today took the shine off things a bit. Anyway back to buying and selling.

First I sold my ZWUK (FTSE tracker) and ZWEU (STOXX 50 tracker) due to BMO closing all of their ETFs in January. I didn’t want to buy another FTSE tracker as I already had VUKE so I bought VHYL (global High Yield ETF – though not high by my standards) and I bought IDVY to replace ZWEU. Made about 0.5% on each of these through buying at lower prices so that was OK.

Already had some cash on hand from selling IAPD (ASX 200 heavy ETF) due to likely fall in the AUD early in December if the RBA cuts rates. So I decided to go the whole hog a sell SEDY (which hasn’t been doing well) and BERI and CYN (two high yielding commodity ITs that haven’t been doing that well in Total Return terms.

All of which left me with lots of cash on hand, some of which I’ve used to subscribe to the Octopus Renewables IPO and, in a moment of madness this afternoon, I stuck about £5,000 in Microsoft !. Yet another attempt at buying US stocks but I’m hoping this one will be more successful than my previous attempts. They seem well set what with Windows, Office 365 (recently won Billion dollar US government contract for this), Xbox, Azure web stuff plus their recent 10Bn dollar JEDI contract win. And their share price certainly performs somewhat more sedately than many of the FANG stocks !. Just telling myself to try and ignore whatever the SP does in the short term…

Still got cash on hand though and am thinking about a VWRL purchase (more new balls for me inspired by JWs ETF analysis) and maybe topping up my HSBA if they get into the 560s. Might also resurrect the Greencoat Renewables idea as a 4% yield (after 20% withholding tax) is perhaps not so bad after all. All these are just ideas ATM though….

Thought about just lobbing all of the cash into prefs for the income but convinced myself I must resist the siren call of that option.

Sorry LLOY fans but I have no plans to buy any LLOY at over 60p. Low 50s and I might be interested.

Have a great weekend all.

ATB

Pref

PS Should anyone be considering investing in any of the stocks that I’ve mentioned above then please DYOR. Obviously a successful outcome can never be guaranteed.


#2841

end of November. Phew! I still doubt if we shall see 55p any time soon but will watch carefully on 13 December.

bye for another month.

plm.


#2842

Hi @pelim, If you bought at ~26p that must have been towards the end of 2011 or perhaps the beginning of 2012 then ?. So you’ve more than doubled your initial investment and received a shedload of dividends as well - and more to come of course. Sounds like a really great investment to me, but was likely a brave one at the time that you made it ?.

Anyway now you can just sit back and enjoy your capital gains and enjoy about a 6% dividend income on that increased valuation. Even a return to 50p would not really trouble you, but I agree I think that is unlikely.

However there are many LLOY investors who bought much later eg after the previous false dawns of 65-70, and who bought at too high a price and are possibly underwater ATM. They will likely be OK too in time I suspect, but I think that @soi’s point is that there is no good justification for a move up out of the 60s at this time, and when (or if) it will ever do so is a complete unknown.

However while such a move would be nice for you, you don’t really need it and can just sit back and enjoy the dividend income and not really be too bothered by the share price.

ATB

Pref


#2843

I sold all my BMO ETFs over the last couple of days too. Thanks again for letting me know. Interestingly, AJ Bell let me know but Charles Stanley didn’t.


#2844

Hi LLOYs fans, Just for interest sake I did a comparison of LLOY against HSBA and 2 global ETFs that I either hold or are interested in (VHYL & VWRL). This is a “total return” comparison which means that any dividends paid are assumed to be re-invested in the stock.

One Year

Over one year LLOY has done OK, up ~15%. Poor performance of HSBA (the yellow line) over the year is clear. Note that my two ETFs werent that far behind LLOY though…

Five Years

Over 5 years its a bit of a different picture though. LLOY is flat and has been outperformed by HSBA !. And my two ETFs have beaten both the banks by a country mile. This is partially due to the FANG stocks held by VWRL and 37% US Holdings in the case of VHYL.

No guide for the future necessarily but there you go.

ATB

Pref


#2845

Indeed @PrefInvestor1

I often see posts on LLOY board from what appear to be long term, buy and hold investors that believe because they are getting decent divis (at least currently) from LLOY and that it has been going for many years that it’s some safe house for their hard earned wad. Well, it is… and each to their own strategy but personally I can’t understand why would you want to invest near exclusively (if that’s what some do) in LLOY when you could spread your risks by diversifying across different sectors and markets… AND have a higher Total Return over almost any long period of time.
LLOY is an excellent addition to a portfolio… but near exclusivity in LLOY I’d class as a large risk.

The below shows a comparison of Total Return over 5 years with LLOY in yellow… and then VUSA (S&P500), VMID (FTSE250), VUKE (FTSE100), HFEL (Asia) and IDVY (Europe).
That group would also provide a yield over 4% pa.

It tells it’s own story.


#2846

Back up to 62p on Monday

Watch this space

Terrorist attack on Friday reason why the market went chicken

Life goes on… nothing new here … sadly it’s life

A Conservative win we see the disco 70s yeah man

Add bye bye PPI payments in 2020

Then its Hello bigger dividends and into the jumping 80s. Cool man

We given away £25 billion BUT Antonio’s giveaway sweet shop is now closed its doors to the ambulance chasers

Too many traders looking at historic charts… look forward never back I say

Lloyd’s is the 2020 banker folks

Follow the bull not yesterday men running rings around out dated charts :wink:


#2847

I think the sp will revisit 59.x next week as the Tory lead seems to be slipping and we head closer to a hung parliament…
ATB
K


#2848

That certainly seems to be driving the UK-centric stock prices right now. GBP has been trading in such a tight range since mid October it hasn’t been causing the swings recently.

After the election, and maybe just before, I predict GBP will break out of that range on fx traders gambling on the election outcome. Then, with the results it will dive one way or the other.

If the outcome is another hung parliament - with the ability and will to halt Brexit then we’ll see GBP drop on more uncertainty.

If Johnson gets a majority and ploughs on towards Brexit but still refuses to extend the transition period (which he will), we’ll see a blip up in the strength of GBP and UK-centric stocks with it. My guess is that will probably last to the new year.

After new year, when the cold realities start to set in about completing complex trade talks with the EU in less than a year, not to mention with other trading partners, GBP will start to slip.

We may leave the EU with no trade deal in place and every likelihood of a No Deal, WTO scenario (even though we have a lot of complaints and claims to deal with in the WTO over broken agreements before they’ll even let us in). The closer that No Deal scenario comes the more GBP and LLOY will drop - as we saw when Johnson was pushing to leave with No Deal on 31 October.

I’ve never really understood why the far-right’s logic on WTO hasn’t been questioned more strongly. Johnson was slaughtered when he tried to protect the policy in a live interview.

They are pushing for the UK to be removed from the EU customs union and democratic over-sight in preference for no agreements and no democratic oversight to any deal we make if the other (or any country) party challenges our behaviour. The UK will be forced to accept their judgeents or become a rogue nation, Do we then have to go through another referendum about Brexit from the WTO?

That is the logical position that has been taken by Farage and his friends. What are they really trying to achieve ?.. and how do they personally make lots and lots of money from it? I’m sure if you could answer the latter it would explain the former.


#2849

Hi @regardless, Well personally this “yesterdays man” is sticking with his charts and passive investing. Following @J_Westlock’s ETF analysis a while back I decided that I should use historical “total return” in my investment selection process more often rather than relying purely on dividend yield. “Total return” is what I target after all so I think it makes sense to select for this more explicitly.

I can understand why you (and anyone else) who have bought LLOY much lower are sticking with it. But buy it a 60+ given its history, you have to be joking !. Not for me anyway……

Suspect that your comments of last evening were perhaps driven by a bit of “liquidity” ?.

Anyway hope you are enjoying your weekend. I’m off out for a long walk to the pub now….

ATB

Pref

PS Trader, me, never !.


#2850

@PrefInvestor1 - If you’re interested in exposure to Europe then I found another alternative to IDVY (that also offers a reasonable yield) with a slightly improved Total Return (over any period):

See BlackRock Continental European Income Fund D Inc…


#2851

He declared this buy, certainly not sub 60.

“400,000 Lloyds shares all bought at 64p to 65p range I rounded up for commission and stamp costs to 65p.”

Hope LLOY comes good for holders.

soi


#2852

Hi @J_Westlock, Thanks for the suggestion, sounds like it’s an OEIC or a Unit Trust though ?. I don’t invest in those given HLs 0.45% pa additional charge that they apply, I stick to stocks, ITs and ETFs which aren’t subject to that charge. I have already bought my IDVY now anyway and that’s enough Europe for me ATM.

Guessing you hold it with some other broker that doesn’t apply any additional charge. One day I will have to open an account with a second broker and do the same, but not right now.

Thanks Again !

Pref

PS As you will have seen I am making use of your ETF analysis.


#2853

A good point and one that I’d forgotten about.
You also pay similar costs for stocks/ETFs by the way… however, this is another ‘hidden’ way that the brokers make money of course as with stocks/ETFs they put limits onto the max they charge… not so for Funds.

Charles Stanley Direct 0.35% (same as per stock/ETFs where they limit it to max £240 pa ie. no further charge after abut £68k of stocks/ETFs)
AJ Bell 0.25% (same as per stock/ETFs where they limit it to £25 per quarter ie. no further charge after £10k of stocks/ETFs)
HL 0.45% (same as per stock/ETFs where they limit it to £45 pa ie. no further charge after £10k of stocks/ETFs).
iWeb ZERO ongoing charges.

Dependent on your platform… it might still be worth it. I need to remember to stick any Funds into my iWeb ISA ongoing.
On another thread I had discussed the virtues of iWeb… which is basically that it is dirt cheap… and frankly compared to the other accounts saves me hundreds of £100’s a year. And… it’s part of Lloyds Banking Group… not that it would help you if you had over £85k and it went under.


#2854

Hi Again @J_Westlock, Well the way I look at it I pay £45 a year (£3.75 a month) for my ISA and that’s it except for trading costs . BUT if I hold any Funds the monthly fee goes up by 0.45%/12*(value of all funds held). Sticking to stocks, ITs and ETFs avoids those Fund charges and my fees are then £3.75 plus my trading costs.

OEICs and Unit Trusts can have significant hidden charges too of course, in that they just come off the price and so just look like poor performance. Another good reason to stay away…

ATB

Pref


#2855

Yep agreed. Well… if you got an iWeb ISA you’d save yourself at least £45 pa.


#2856

So for me if I invested in that European fund then my total return would be 0.45% less than your projected figure I guess.

ATB

Pref


#2857

Yep… puts a significant dent in it.