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LLOYDS is going to FLY

lse:lloy

#2858

Living the dream Pref

Spending my Lloyd’s dividend cash in Mexico today

All inclusive 5 star luxury

32 years of saving

Pay back time for regardless pension fund

Everyone is a WINNER


#2859

Hi @regardless, Winter probably a good time to go to Mexico, too hot any other time. You can keep the Mexican food though as far as I am concerned, too many onions !. 10-12 hour flight I suspect, hope you went business class !. That’ll rack up the £s.

Yeah I guess some see holidays and travelling as “living the dream”. Not me though, I hate travelling and holidays - sad but true.

Hope you have a good time though. Keep out of the sun !.

ATB

Pref


#2860

pelim

I do not understand your use of the word invest in relation to my trading. No matter.
You seem to be somewhat emotional about your LLOY investment
Maybe I am wrong on that point.

For clarity I am not an investor in LLOY.
I am a trader of LLOY shares. The type of trading I do would put me in the category of a “scalper”.

As you have an account on barcplus ( 2 I think ) why did you copy my post from that board which has a policy of register before you can even read, let alone post.
The 56.37 short trade you copied was closed at profit.

The price level of 55 was not seen. Close though, shorty after that post there was a 55.40 print.
My apologies for being 0.4p wrong.( sarcasm alert )

To clarify another couple of points, I do actually care what LLOY is worth or to put it another way what I think it is worth.
I do also sometimes receive dividend payments on my LLOY trades.
I have explained how that works several times.

I generally do not declare receipt of dividends on barcplus nor anywhere else.

Finally yes of course I do understand the dividend appeal of LLOY to long term investors.
Nothing wrong with having some LLOY shares as part of a well diversified portfolio.

soi


#2861

@J_Westlock and @PrefInvestor1

Exchange traded funds linked to bond markets have attracted higher investor inflows than equivalent equity products this year in a highly unusual development in the history of the ETF industry.

Bond ETFs have traditionally accounted for a fraction of the new cash entering the $5.9tn segment of the asset management world, which have predominantly been allocated to ETFs that track stock markets.

But this pattern has reversed in 2019 for the first time.

Investors have ploughed $191bn into fixed income ETFs in the first 10 months, compared with less than $158bn in new cash gathered by equity ETFs, according to ETFGI, a London-based consultancy.

“Adoption rates have accelerated noticeably as more investors have realised that fixed income ETFs can provide efficient solutions to some of the liquidity challenges of cash bond markets,” said Deborah Fuhr, co-founder of ETFGI.

ETFs have proved useful when we want to make a quick asset allocation decision

Inflows into fixed income ETFs have more than doubled in 2019 compared with the same period last year and have also surpassed the record of nearly $142bn gathered over the whole of 2017.

Two fixed income ETFs feature at the top of the best-selling launches of 2019. A short-dated Treasury bond, known as IBTU, which was listed in London by BlackRock, has gathered assets of $2.2bn while an Invesco 7-10 year Treasury bond ETF, known as TREX, has accumulated $2bn in assets.

“It is a new development to see newly launched fixed income ETFs build multibillion asset pools so rapidly,” said Ms Fuhr.

Regulatory reforms introduced after the financial crisis have led to significant reductions in the inventories of bonds held by banks and broker-dealers, some of the most important liquidity providers in fixed income markets.

As a result, constructing and running fixed income strategies with individual bonds has become more expensive and less efficient than in the past, encouraging investors to employ low-cost ETFs as portfolio building blocks.

However, fees for bond ETFs remain too high, according to Peter Sleep, a senior portfolio manager at Seven Investment Management and an experienced ETF investor.

“Many of the most liquid bond ETFs are often more expensive than directly competing actively managed funds which does not make sense,” he said. “The largest high yield, emerging market debt and convertible bond ETFs are typically priced at about 50 basis points whereas I can find good active funds for a lot less with a little bit of shopping around.”

Mr Sleep was also critical of the performance of some bond ETFs that follow a truncated liquid version of the fixed income indices that portfolio managers are measured against.

“ETF providers tend to focus on the liquid part of the benchmark so that units of their ETFs can be created and redeemed efficiently. But it does mean that an investor gives up a fair bit on performance which is painful when interest rates are so low,” he said.

Nicholas Mandrinos has increased his usage of bond ETFs in his role as a fixed income investment manager at Stonehage Fleming, the $55bn London-based multifamily office.

“ETFs have proved useful when we want to make a quick asset allocation decision or if we need an exposure while conducting due diligence on an active manager which can be a lengthy process,” he said.

Differentiating between active fixed income managers has become more difficult as a result of quantitative easing by central banks but greater divergences are appearing within sectors of the bond market as the credit cycle has matured. This is shifting the balance in favour of active management, according to Mr Mandrinos.

“Negative interest rates present unavoidable problems for some ETFs due to their focus on particular exposures, such as European investment grade bonds. Active managers have greater flexibility and other levers that they can operate, such as moving up and down the curve of a bond issuer,” he said.

Assets in bond ETFs passed the $1tn milestone for the first time earlier this year. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has forecast that fixed income ETFs could grow to about $4tn over the next five years, accounting for a third of total ETF industry assets by the end of 2023.

Brett Pybus, Emea head of fixed income strategy at iShares, BlackRock’s ETF arm, said that concerns over the trade war between the US and China, Brexit worries and uncertainty over the outlook for the global economy had helped to stimulate investor appetite for bond ETFs in 2019.

“We have seen investors looking to build more resilience into their portfolios which has boosted inflows into sovereign bond and broadly based fixed income ETFs. At the same time, emerging market debt and high yield ETFs have attracted strong inflows from investors looking for an income stream,” said Mr Pybus.

The acceleration in inflows has occurred in spite of mounting concerns that a dangerous pricing bubble has developed in fixed income markets where bonds worth $15tn — about a quarter of the debt issued by governments and companies globally — are trading with negative yields.

More institutional investors are questioning whether government bonds with negative yields can provide effective protection in multi-asset portfolios if there is a market downturn.

BlackRock cautions that the ability of German bunds and Japanese government bonds to provide multi-asset portfolios with a cushion against possible losses in equity market has weakened.

“We prefer to overweight higher yielding government bonds in strategic asset allocations and see a diminished role for eurozone and Japanese government bonds,” BlackRock said last week.

Whether these issues are properly understood more widely is questionable.

Abhimanyu Chatterjee, head of asset and risk modelling at Dynamic Planner, a provider of risk profiles for funds and investment portfolios, said the threat of losses as a result of the spread of negative interest rates was unappreciated by retail investors.

“Many retail investors and financial advisers are still making chunky allocations to fixed income assets in low risk portfolios which are often used for savers approaching retirement. The risk of losses across fixed income ETFs is underestimated,” said Mr Chatterjee.


#2862

image

… except LLOY, according to A.J. Bell


#2863

Hi @Eadwig and @J_Westlock, Yes I’ve seen bond ETFs on offer but have never understood the attraction, ditto investing in gifts or treasuries. My fixed interest investments are mainly my preference shares plus I also have a couple of ITs that invest in high yield bonds and which pay high dividends eg NCYF. I also have some ITs that specialise in various types of debt (property, infrastructure etc.) eg SEQI, RECI, SWEF off the top of my head. Nice yields, not volatile and not market.correlated.

In total I probably have about 30% of my portfolio in these types of investment. (Just an estimate as I’m still in bed right now !. I know for sure I have about 15% in prefs).

My ETF investments are all typically just index trackers of various markets eg FTSE 100 and STOXX 50 though I also just bought VHYL the other day. Seriously considering buying some VWRL as well. So all are equity based and 100% market correlated.

ATB

Pref

PS Some of the ITs that I own do hold treasuries though.


#2864

Hi @Eadwig, I hold the first 3 on this list and IMV the chances of them cutting their dividend is negligible, in fact BP and RDSB have in the recent past made noises about increasing it. And do you really think that HSBC are going to cut ?.

The figure given for GSK in your list doesn’t look right to me 80p divided by ~1750 gives you about 4.6% in my book. I sold all mine not long ago and moved the money into MRCH an IT (which I prefer to single stocks), pays ~5.2% (or did when I bought) and has a 20+ year history of ALWAYS increasing its dividend year on year.

Personally I wouldn’t touch BATS or VOD with a 100 ft barge pole. But each to their own.

ATB

Pref


#2865

Not my list buddy - A.J. Bell’s. Don’t shoot the messenger.

I don’t think RDS or HSBA will cut either.


#2866

OK. Sorry if I was a bit blunt, not intentional !.

AFC Energy going well again today I see, or at least it was when I looked earlier.

ATB

Pref


#2867

Yes, I wouldn’t mind seeing a drop before the big day on Friday. I’m not sure how big it will be, but if customer contracts are announced at the same time as the unveiling of the E.V. charging unit I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t hit @28p again, even if only intraday, perhaps on the following Monday if there is press coverage over the weekend, which I think there will be (I’m assuming it will be favourable in the current climate - forgive the pun).

So, I certainly wouldn’t mind seeing a drop this week to allow me to reload with plenty of upside potential. To be safe though I’d like to see 10% below the recent cash raise price of @20p - which is about where the current price stands as I type.


#2868

GSK dividend is 80p pa at the moment. 3 interims of 19p and a final of 23p last year.

Regards,
ITDYA


#2869

Hi @in_the_dark_yet_again, Yes exactly as I stated in my earlier post, see below:-

Making the yield a good deal less than the 5.1% quoted in the AJ Bell list. Hence my comments.

ATB

Pref


#2870

37 year history of increased dividends.
Puts LLOY to shame.

Good long term investment for income.
Superb manager Simon Gergel.
I follow his market analysis.
Probably unheard of by most but he is miles ahead of better known “big noise big names” who can barely manage to keep pace with markets.

The stock is sometimes not too liquid if dealing in size. Spread can be wide.

ATB

soi


#2871

Hi Pelim,

Who can ever be certain? Indeed, he’s called it better than most here for some time.

FWIW, I hold LLOY. My largest stake in shares. I’ve not added to my earlier views here as nothing has changed significantly since then.

As you know, the foreseeable future for LLOY, as for all UK-centric stocks, is going to be heavily affected by macro-factors like the GE outcome & Brexit.

For eg. if Johnson wins a working majority, stocks will rise, including LLOY. However, it might not last very long once the reality of the range of complex trade deals &, with it, increased risk of No-Deal thanks to Johnson’s ludicrous deadline of end of 2020 by which to agree those trade deals, takes hold to once again spook investors confidence in UK-centric stocks.

OTOH, if we see a Labour coalition, fair to say we’d expect most stocks to fall initially. But once they held a 2nd Referendum & if Remain won, I think LLOY would gradually recover to at least over 70p.

By the by, I’m not sure what the point was of re-posting that particular comment of Soi’s or his avatar. A bit of a dig maybe? Presumably you do realise that the status of each poster on the Barcplus forum is set by default for a bit of fun. No-one chooses “God” or anything else on there.

But whatever the point was, it can come over as a bit of a cheap shot which reflects rather badly on you, even if you didn’t mean it that way. - GL.


#2872

02-Dec-19 16:54:10 60.95 49,264,213 Buy* 60.00 60.02 30m O

This looks a strange transaction - anyone know what might have been happening, someone caught short maybe?

ATB
K


#2873

No, haven’t got a clue, but they’re still going on. that looks just one of the largest of a series after hours …

17:33:22 02-Dec-2019 60.66 GBX 45,577 27,647.01 Off-book TNCP XOFF
17:30:14 02-Dec-2019 60.29 GBX 60,335 36,373.56 Off-book TNCP XOFF
17:21:16 02-Dec-2019 60.66 GBX 105,901 64,240.61 Off-book TNCP XOFF
17:15:25 02-Dec-2019 59.94 GBX 760,025 455,581.79 Off-book TNCP XOFF
17:12:57 02-Dec-2019 60.66 GBX 4,763 2,889.24 Off-book TNCP XOFF
17:12:54 02-Dec-2019 60.66 GBX 40,038 24,288.25 Off-book TNCP XOFF
16:54:10 02-Dec-2019 60.95 GBX 49,264,213 30,026,537.82 Off-book XOFF
16:37:20 02-Dec-2019 59.94 GBX 71,628 42,933.82 Off-book SINT
16:37:20 02-Dec-2019 59.94 GBX 113,485 68,022.91 Off-book SINT
16:37:20 02-Dec-2019 59.94 GBX 216,455 129,743.13 Off-book SINT

Non Price Forming Trades NPFT, TNCP = Non Price Forming Transactions and Non Price Contribution to Discovery Indicators.

OTC Trade OTC XOFF - TRADEcho - Immediate / Deferred / No Publication

SI Trade SI SINT - TRADEcho - Immediate / Deferred / No Publication

I wish all this stuff was a lot more straight-forward.


#2874

Hi Eadwig, yes I agree, it’s all v murky stuff. Hard for the layman to understand what’s really going on…


#2875

… especially when we’ve had a week that has seen 4 straight rises in the sp taking it out of trend and then a couple of fairly big drops. They must be connected… maybe…


#2876

yeah … maybe. Who can tell? I wouldn’t mind someone sitting me down who understands all this market stuff and explaining it to me. There are some explanatory videos on https://www.londonstockexchange.com/home/homepage.htm
but they tend to leave me with more questions about exceptions than they give me answers.


#2877

Thanks I’ll look it over. My predictive text insists on calling you earwig. I’ve caught them so far but please don’t be offended if it slips through…
Regards
Keith